تابع رؤية 2030
بذكاء سياقي

The precise ideological lessons that Iran’s new leadership draws from the 110-day war may prove to be the overriding factor in determining whether negotiations with the US culminate in an agreement that verifiably prevents the country from developing a nuclear weapon – an outcome that could usher in a new era for the Iranian economy while also reshaping the Middle East. Does this rapidly assembled leadership team, forged in the fire of war, still represent an Islamic ideological crusade – a description coined by Henry Kissinger – or does the acceptance of the memorandum of understanding, in the words of JD Vance, denote a desire for pragmatism? The vacuum created by the invisibility of Iran’s injured supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, makes this moment something of an interregnum. On Thursday, Khamenei published a letter saying he opposed the deal in principle but had deferred to the president, Masoud Pezeshkian, after being given undertakings that if the US demanded too much, he would not accept. The rights of the country and the axis of resistance had to be protected, Khamenei said. Like his father and predecessor, Ali Khamenei, he has put himself in the enviable position of ensuring absolution from blame if the elected politicians get burnt dealing with the west. View image in fullscreen An Iranian man walks past a banner depicting Mojtaba Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader, at Valiasr Square in Tehran. Photograph: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images His public intervention, on the eve of now-cancelled talks in Switzerland, may yet influence the balance of a charged debate inside the US administration as to the nature of Iran’s new, younger leadership. On Friday last week, Donald Trump seemed to land on one side when he accused the Iranian leadership of being “very dishonourable people who don’t deal in good faith”. That assessment appeared to chime with the views of John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, who warned his president that a significant gap separated the positions publicly expressed by Iranian officials from what they were saying privately. “Intelligence indicates that Iranian intentions do not align with the commitments made in the agreement,” Ratcliffe concluded, a source close to the discussions told Axios. The hint was that Iran’s leadership team would either stall on a nuclear agreement or, worse, conclude they must secretly assemble a weapon since the strait of Hormuz would eventually become a wasting asset. Few Iranians deny that the strait was decisive in proving the US could no longer impose global order unilaterally. View image in fullscreen Donald Trump talking with the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, left; the secretary of state, Marco Rubio; and the White House chief of staff. Susie Wiles. Photograph: Daniel Torok/AP Payam Fazlinejad, a hardline editor of the magazine Naqd Andisheh, said: “History has also shown America that geography sometimes takes revenge on technology; part of the source of power lies in geographical straits, not in heavy military equipment. Iran has come to understand that it possesses a greater deterrent power than a nuclear weapon.” But, like many others, Fazlinejad urged the leadership to break the never-ending cycle of war, negotiations and protests. “The country cannot afford a new miscalculation and must restore stability to the country,” he told Pezeshkian at a meeting of media editors this week. Politicians may have different prescriptions but it is clear the public crave a return to normality. Trump, judging by his remarks at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, has gone all in on a version of this analysis and, as a result, decided to embrace Iran’s leadership. On Tuesday, he described the country’s leaders – the third set with whom he has had to negotiate – as “the most rational group we have ever dealt with … They are not radicalised. They are looking to help their country.” Trump’s team like to think they have been given in the last few weeks privileged access to the most senior figures in Tehran in a way that is unprecedented for US politicians since the 1979 revolution. View image in fullscreen Donald Trump and France’s Emmanuel Macron during the signing of a deal with Iran to end the Middle East war. Photograph: @EmmanuelMacron/X/AFP/Getty Images Vance, for instance, said the US had never got so close to the Iranian leadership. “The coolest thing about the progress we’ve made over the last few weeks is that you’re seeing people within the Iranian system – senior leadership, even IRGC officials – say: ‘You know what? We recognise the way that we’ve done business with the US for 47 years is a mistake.’” He said it was the hardliners in Tehran who were playing up the benefits of the deal for Iran and playing down its drawbacks – an assessment that in fact is probably the opposite of what has been happening in the capital over the past two weeks. In reality, it has been the most hardline faction, known as the Paydari Front and long opposed to engagement with the west, that has denigrated the deal. This group, linked to the former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and prominent in the parliament, described the deal as a catastrophe and said ending the blockade now was premature. Many of its members appeared at street rallies and on TV to denounce the negotiating team as a betrayal of the revolution and of the martyred supreme leader. Jalili’s brother Vahid, who runs much of the state broadcaster Irib, has provided a platform for critics of the deal, to the open frustration of Pezeshkian. Critics claim Irib is an inverted version of Fox News, suppressing diverse opinion. The internal battle over the deal was, in some ways, a re-run of the arguments Iran went through when it signed the nuclear deal in 2015. The chief negotiator, the then foreign minister Javad Zarif, became a target of vitriol for years, accused of naively striking a deal with the “Great Satan”. When Trump unilaterally withdrew from the deal in 2018, he severely undermined the faction that saw Iran’s opening to the west’s markets as essential. Ever since, the advocates of negotiation have had to overcome the reasonable argument that the US cannot be trusted. Currently it is Trump’s inability to control Israel in Lebanon that weakens the negotiations in Tehran. Nevertheless, it still feels as if, despite Khamenei’s intervention, the hardliners are the ones who had to retreat. The advocates of a deal won not only an argument but also a power struggle. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the conservative-inclined consensus builder recently re-elected as speaker of Iran’s parliament, is probably – along with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from where he came – the most high-profile beneficiary of the war. Ghalibaf was so confident of his position, he suggested a vote was taken at the supreme national security council on whether to accept the deal. Unusually, army members were allowed to vote as well. Only one person present opposed, reportedly most likely Jalili. Key figures in the parliament, a possible roadblock, concede the memorandum is not a document that requires parliament’s approval. In a long interview on Wednesday, punctuated by many personal pronouns as well as praise for national unity, Ghalibaf justified the act of negotiation and, implicitly, the concessions inherent in bargaining. “My job is not diplomacy,” he said. “I am a fighter. But with the spirit and culture of a fighter I pursue diplomatic work. Our goal was to relieve the pressure and fire on the people. If this negotiation had not taken place, would such an event have just happened just by firing a missile? No. “Our armed forces, compared to an enemy armed to the teeth, can wipe the floor with them, but could this have been possible without the support of the people? Never.” View image in fullscreen Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who was recently re-elected as speaker of Iran’s parliament, is probably the most high-profile beneficiary of the war. Photograph: NurPhoto/Getty Images But if survival in war was the primary objective, the big question now is how the government will behave. The early clues, experts say, are that the new leadership is operating a new grand strategy, that it will be more authoritarian, more pro-China and more willing to listen pragmatically to the advice of the IRGC. Preparations for Ali Khamenei’s funeral hardly suggest Iran is morphing into a secular regime. On the nuclear front, a deal is available, since the US has abandoned previous red lines. However, Kelsey Davenport, an Iran expert at the Arms Control Association, warned that discussions about the critical on-the-ground verification role of the UN nuclear inspectorate, and the regime’s willingness to accept a necessarily intrusive UN inspection regime, were still to be tested. Strict timelines were needed for Iran to report to the International Atomic Energy Agency, she said. Ghalibaf also seems aware that the focus inside government needs to shift to address inflation and the currency markets. “We must take over the frontline from the launcher kids and relieve the people from economic pressure,” he said. “The criterion of success is shifting from repelling external threats to improving the economy.” One way to do that is to not put all Iran’s eggs in the western basket. Ghalibaf, appointed as special envoy to China last month, emphasised a balanced approach between west and east. Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy, said: “For years, Iran treated China transactionally. They were ultimately seeking some kind of accommodation with the west, and were using China as a form of leverage. But they did not really deliver to China everything that China wanted. “Xi Jinping visited Tehran in January 2016, the same month the JCPoA [joint comprehensive plan of action] was signed. During his visit, China and Iran signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, but Iran gave all the contrac

The Western alliance continues to disintegrate. Defense Secretary Hegseth used this week’s NATO meetings to publicly blast several European allies for refusing U.S. requests to use certain bases and airspace during the Iran conflict, calling their behavior “shameful” and announcing a six-month review of the American military footprint in Europe. The argument is essentially that… Everyone is hoping the U.S.-Iran deal holds, but Hormuz is still operating on political trust instead of commercial confidence. The U.S. has lifted its naval blockade; Iran and the U.S. have signed the 14-point memorandum; and tankers have started moving again through the strait (including Saudi supertankers carrying millions of barrels of crude). Still, shipping companies and insurers have to decide whether the route is safe enough to normalize operations. The mines can be cleared, but without any guarantees that are hoped for from the 60-day negotiation process that now starts, it may be premature. Shipowners need more confidence than they have right now. Lebanon is still the real stress test. The memorandum commits both sides and their allies to end military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, but Israel has already said its troops will remain in a security zone in southern Lebanon. Iran is warning that continued Israeli occupation could amount to an annulment of the agreement, and Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon have not fully stopped. Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict Everyone is hoping the U.S.-Iran deal holds, but Hormuz is still operating on political trust instead of commercial confidence. The U.S. has lifted its naval blockade; Iran and the U.S. have signed the 14-point memorandum; and tankers have started moving again through the strait (including Saudi supertankers carrying millions of barrels of crude). Still, shipping companies and insurers have to decide whether the route is safe enough to normalize operations. The mines can be cleared, but without any guarantees that are hoped for from the 60-day negotiation process that now starts, it may be premature. Shipowners need more confidence than they have right now. Lebanon is still the real stress test. The memorandum commits both sides and their allies to end military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, but Israel has already said its troops will remain in a security zone in southern Lebanon. Iran is warning that continued Israeli occupation could amount to an annulment of the agreement, and Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon have not fully stopped. The Western alliance continues to disintegrate. Defense Secretary Hegseth used this week’s NATO meetings to publicly blast several European allies for refusing U.S. requests to use certain bases and airspace during the Iran conflict, calling their behavior “shameful” and announcing a six-month review of the American military footprint in Europe. The argument is essentially that if allies want fewer U.S. military operations launched from their territory, Washington will have fewer troops and assets stationed there. Trump is arguing that Europe contributed little during the Iran crisis, including discussions over a possible Hormuz security mission that ultimately became unnecessary after Washington opened a direct channel with Tehran. More than four years into the war, the Russia-Ukraine battlefield is mostly defined by attrition (not forward movement). New data compiled by Harvard Kennedy School’s Russia Matters project shows Russian forces gained just 10 square miles of Ukrainian territory over the past month (DeepState estimates), while Institute for the Study of War data suggests Russia may have actually lost ground. Nothing much has changed. Russia now controls roughly 19-20% of Ukraine, for which it paid with some 1 million military casualties, massive destruction of armored vehicles, and endless attacks on energy infrastructure. On Thursday, in a massive new campaign, Ukraine launched nearly 200 drones toward Moscow, with several striking the city’s main oil refinery for the second time this week and forcing the temporary closure of all four airports. Discovery & Development China has completed construction of a 400 MW solar-hydrogen-storage project in Jiangsu that combines utility-scale solar generation, battery storage, and green hydrogen production in a single system. The facility includes a 60 MW/120 MWh battery installation and hydrogen production capacity of 482 tonnes per year. China appears to be treating the buildout of new projects as industrial energy hubs, not standalone power plants, using surplus solar generation to produce hydrogen that can be stored, transported and consumed by industry. This strategy is designed to resolve two key challenges at the same time: renewable power intermittency and hydrogen production costs. Shell has drilled a sidetrack appraisal well on its Merlin discovery offshore Namibia as the company gathers additional data on what it has described as the most promising subsurface result to date within its vast PEL 0039 license in the Orange Basin. The Merlin-1X well, drilled in the Coniacian play, encountered light oil, limited associated gas, and what Shell called good reservoir quality, marking the tenth well drilled across the 12,000-square-kilometer block. The discovery adds to a string of earlier finds, including Graff, Jonker, and La Rona, but Shell continues to emphasize a data-driven approach as it evaluates commercial viability. The results strengthen confidence in Namibia’s emergence as a major new hydrocarbon province, while highlighting the industry’s growing focus on the Coniacian interval as operators search for discoveries capable of supporting large-scale development projects. ReconAfrica is approaching the moment that will determine whether Namibia’s Kavango Basin becomes one of the most significant onshore oil discoveries of the decade. The company has begun production testing at its Kavango West 1X discovery, the first cased production test ever conducted in Namibia, targeting six separate intervals across more than 1,300 feet of hydrocarbon-bearing reservoir. Investors have been waiting years for this stage. Exploration wells can identify oil, but production tests determine whether it can flow at commercial rates. The well has already encountered 75 meters of net hydrocarbon pay, more than 560 meters of hydrocarbon-saturated reservoir, oil fluorescence, surface oil shows, and highly fractured carbonate formations that could provide the permeability needed for strong production. Results are expected by late July. If the test confirms commercial flow rates, attention will quickly shift to the planned Kavango West 2A appraisal well and the broader Damara Fold Belt, where ReconAfrica and its partners control a vast acreage position across one of the world’s last major frontier basins. Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions Venezuela has signed 5 agreements with Shell that formalize the company’s participation in the 7 Tcf Loran offshore gas field, one of the largest undeveloped gas discoveries in the Caribbean. This adds to Shell’s existing gas assets in Venezuela, including the 4.2 Tcf Dragon field and potentially additional offshore developments tied to Trinidad & Tobago’s LNG industry. We are now seeing Venezuela move from separate project approvals toward the creation of a regional gas export corridor. Rather than building costly new LNG infrastructure from scratch, Caracas is planning to use Trinidad’s existing liquefaction capacity and Shell’s position on both sides of the maritime border. Loran, Dragon, and other cross-border gas fields collectively contain more than 11 Tcf of resources and could eventually provide a significant new source of gas for Atlantic LNG exports. Saudi Aramco is reportedly exploring the acquisition of a 49% stake in GüzelEnerji, the Turkish fuel distributor owned by the military pension fund OYAK. The deal would give Aramco a significant downstream position in one of the region’s largest energy markets. GüzelEnerji controls more than 1,000 fuel stations across Turkey under the TotalEnergies, M Oil, and Türk Petrol brands and operates storage and LPG facilities with a combined capacity of 550,000 cubic meters. Ankara and Riyadh are deepening ties after years of souring, including through a recent $2B renewable energy deal. The Trump administration has secured another major offshore wind buyout, with Invenergy agreeing to surrender four offshore wind leases worth roughly $765 million and redirect the capital into natural gas-fired power plants and geothermal projects across the United States. The agreement covers leases in the New York Bight, California, and the Gulf of Maine and brings the total value of offshore wind investments redirected under the administration’s buyout strategy to more than $2.5 billion. Rather than attempting to halt projects through regulatory battles, Washington is increasingly offering developers a path to recover lease investments in exchange for shifting capital into energy sources aligned with the administration’s “Energy Dominance” agenda. The policy is rapidly reshaping the U.S. offshore wind sector, redirecting billions of dollars away from planned wind developments and into natural gas, LNG, oil, and other conventional energy infrastructure while triggering legal challenges from states that argue the federal government lacks authority to unwind offshore leases through negotiated settlements. Repsol is moving deeper into Venezuela as foreign oil companies race back into the country under newly eased U.S. licensing rules. The Spanish major is seeking to add the Horcón field in northwestern Venezuela to its portfolio, expanding around its existing Barua and Motatan assets while also advancing agreements with PDVSA and Eni tied to the Perla gas project and the Petroquiriquire joint venture. Repsol currently produces around 45,000 bpd in Venezuela, but is targeting a 50% increase over t

Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. retail sales jumped +0.9% m/m in May, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m, and core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, grew +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m. Separately, U.S. pending home sales climbed +3.8% m/m in May, exceeding expectations of +0.8% m/m and marking the biggest increase in 20 months. In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed lower. The Magnificent Seven stocks slid, with Meta Platforms (META) falling over -5% and Amazon.com (AMZN) dropping more than -3%. Also, telecommunication stocks declined, with Charter Communications (CHTR) slumping over -6% and AT&T (T) falling more than -3%. In addition, CarMax (KMX) sank about -9% as investors appeared unconvinced that the used-car retailer’s turnaround is gaining traction, even after it reported better-than-expected Q1 results. On the bullish side, chip stocks advanced, with Arm Holdings (ARM) climbing more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Applied Materials (AMAT) rising over +4%. The price of WTI crude fell over -2% on Thursday as investors wagered on a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump told reporters that he signed the interim agreement with Iran at the Palace of Versailles near Paris, where he had dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron. Trump and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, signed the so-called memorandum of understanding on Wednesday, ahead of the previously scheduled Friday signing. The 14-point framework calls for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Washington lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and removes sanctions on Iranian oil sales. In an early indication that the shipping industry is responding to the deal, some oil and gas tankers began passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including vessels owned by Saudi Arabia’s state-run tanker company. June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are up +0.98%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are up +1.64% this morning, pointing to a sharply higher open on Wall Street as sentiment got a boost after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a preliminary agreement to end the Iran war. Story Continues “Retail sales in May point to a resilient consumer despite accelerating inflation and higher borrowing costs. Looking ahead, the recent drop in oil prices should provide relief at the pump, while an improving labor market suggests a stable outlook for consumer spending,” said Angelo Kourkafas at Edward Jones. As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. In their post-meeting statement, policymakers said inflation remained elevated, dropped language referring to potential additional adjustments to interest rates, and declared that “the committee will deliver price stability.” Policymakers’ updated projections showed that nine officials expect at least one quarter-point rate hike this year, with six forecasting at least two. Another nine anticipated either no move or a rate cut. Notably, one Fed official did not submit any interest-rate projections. At a press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh confirmed that he was the official who did not submit a projection in the so-called dot plot. Also, Mr. Warsh pledged to restore price stability. “Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue,” he said. In addition, the new Fed chief announced the formation of multiple task forces to review five areas and propose changes to the way the Fed operates. “[June’s FOMC] meeting confirms that the Fed’s recent hawkish shift was not just about higher energy prices. Despite the recent pullback in oil, half of the members of the FOMC expect rate hikes as soon as this year, reflecting strong labor market and inflation data,” said Kay Haigh at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 67.9% chance of no rate change and a 32.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in July. Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 225K, compared to last week’s number of 229K. The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be released today. Economists anticipate that the Philly Fed manufacturing index will stand at 9.8 in June, compared to last month’s value of -0.4. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will be released today as well. Economists project the May figure to rise +0.1% m/m, matching the previous month’s gain. In addition, Wall Street is bracing for a quarterly event known as “triple-witching,” during which derivatives contracts linked to equities, index options, and futures expire, prompting traders collectively to either roll over their current positions or initiate new ones. On the earnings front, IT and consulting company Accenture (ACN) and grocery store operator Kroger (KR) are set to report their quarterly results today. In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.46%, down -0.87%. On Friday, U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed for Juneteenth. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.03% this morning as investors weigh the signing of a deal to end the war in the Middle East against the Fed’s hawkish hold. Chip and other AI-related stocks climbed on Thursday. At the same time, mining stocks underperformed. Data from the Office for National Statistics released on Thursday showed that the U.K.’s unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down in the three months through April while wage growth remained flat. Separately, data showed that the Eurozone’s adjusted current account surplus widened slightly in April, supported by stronger exports and a larger trade surplus. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s central bank left its key rate unchanged at zero on Thursday and reiterated that it stood increasingly ready to intervene in the foreign-exchange market if needed amid still-high geopolitical uncertainty. Also, Norway’s central bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected, but continued to signal a rate hike later this year as inflation remains elevated. Investor focus now turns to the interest rate decision from the Bank of England later in the day. The BoE is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75%. Investors will closely watch the vote split and the BoE’s communication for clues about the likely path of future rate decisions. In corporate news, Edenred (EDEN.FP) surged over +17% after a report said Britain’s BC Partners was considering a takeover of the company. U.K. Average Earnings ex Bonus, U.K. Unemployment Rate, and Eurozone’s Current Account data were released today. U.K. Average Earnings ex Bonus stood at 3.4% in the three months to April, stronger than expectations of 3.2%. The U.K. Unemployment Rate was 4.9% in the three months to April, stronger than expectations of no change at 5.0%. Eurozone’s April Current Account came in at 15.7 billion euros, weaker than expectations of 18.5 billion euros. Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.43%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.65%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as investors rotated out of traditional sectors and into technology stocks. Real estate stocks were among the biggest losers on Thursday. At the same time, AI-related stocks climbed after China’s top securities regulator said it would introduce reforms to support more listings by AI companies. Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Wu Qing said at Shanghai’s Lujiazui Forum on Wednesday that the reforms would focus on the tech-heavy Science and Technology Innovation Board in Shanghai and the ChiNext Board for high-growth startups in Shenzhen. The regulator plans to ease listing requirements for developers of large AI language models and support more “hard-tech” companies, including those in quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, and embodied intelligence, seeking to list on the STAR Board. Elsewhere, National Development and Reform Commission spokesperson Li Chao said on Thursday that China’s consumer-goods trade-in program boosted sales of related products by more than 820 billion yuan ($121.26 billion) during the January-May period. In corporate news, Lenovo Group fell over -4% in Hong Kong after the world’s largest personal-computer maker announced plans to raise $2 billion through a convertible-bond offering. Mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets will be closed on Friday for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher and hit a record high today as sentiment got a boost after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an interim agreement to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal eased concerns about Japan’s economy, which relies heavily on energy imports from the Middle East. Technology and financial stocks led the gains on Thursday. The Nikkei closed above the 71,000 level for the first time. Meanwhile, the yen fell overnight to its weakest level against the U.S. dollar since July 2024, increasing the risk of official intervention. The move was driven largely by a rally in the U.S. dollar as traders increased bets that the Fed will raise interest rates this year. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday that the country stands ready to take appropriate action in response to exchange-rate movements. In other news, foreign investors sold a net 785.1 billion yen ($4.89 billion) worth of Japanese stocks in the week through June 13th, marking a third straight week of net selling, according to Ministry of Finance data. In corporate news, Obayashi Corp. rose over +2% a

39m ago 08.27 CEST The Swiss foreign ministry said planned talks between the US and Iran in the Buergenstock mountaintop resort in Switzerland are still going ahead on Friday, after both sides signed a ceasefire agreement last night to end the war. “As ‌things stand, the plan is still for the US and Iran, along with mediators Pakistan ‌and Qatar and other involved countries, to ​meet tomorrow at Buergenstock for initial negotiations about implementing the agreement,” the ministry said in a statement. “No ⁠further information is ​currently available ​regarding the schedule ​and details of ​this ‌meeting.” Share 1h ago 08.02 CEST Analysis: Trump’s Iran deal is a result of unrealistic ambitions for an untenable war As the adage goes: no plan of battle survives first contact with the enemy. Donald Trump entered the war with Iran with maximalist goals: eliminating the country’s nuclear programme, destroying its ballistic missile programme and ending its support for regional military groups including Hezbollah and Hamas. He exits it with Iran’s word not to build a bomb and to hold further nuclear discussions, no mention in writing of the ballistic missile programme and with Hezbollah celebrating a “victory” as the memorandum of understanding (MOU) instituted a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israel has seized a swath of the country as a “buffer zone”. Iran’s key asset ended up being the strait of Hormuz, the waterway that almost every previous simulation of the war predicated would be quickly cut off by Iran. To reopen the strait, the administration was forced to fold on its broader goals or face what Trump called a “worldwide depression”. It has been clear for days that the Trump administration was skittish about putting out the text of its MOU. It was only finally read out by a senior administration official on a briefing call on Wednesday, and the White House still has not published a copy online. The reasoning is clear: many in Trump’s own party will hate this deal. The outgoing US senator Bill Cassidy, of Maryland, called it the “worst foreign policy blunder in decades”. The full analysis is here: Trump’s Iran deal is result of unrealistic ambitions for an untenable war Read more Share 1h ago 07.56 CEST German defence minister Boris Pistorius is being quoted as saying just now that before it can participate in any mine-clearing operation in the strait of Hormuz, it will need a permissive environment – meaning approval by Iran and Oman – as well as a parliamentary mandate. On Sunday Donald Trump said the initial reopening of the vital energy-supply route would be for the “purposes of mine removal”. What do we know about how many mines Iran has laid in the strait, what the options are for clearing them, and what are the risks? These are other questions are answered in this explainer: What mines has Iran laid in the strait of Hormuz and how can the US remove them? Read more Share Updated at 08.15 CEST 1h ago 07.44 CEST The Israeli military says one of its soldiers was killed during fighting in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, while seven others were injured in the incident. Master Sergeant (Res.) Alexander Filin, a 29-year-old from Haifa, was killed in combat, the Israel Defence Forces said in a statement posted on Telegram on Thursday. As well, an officer, a reserve officer and a reserve soldier were moderately injured, it said. A combat non-commissioned officer, two reserve soldiers and a female reserve soldier were lightly injured, the IDF said. Under the US-Iran ceasefire deal, Lebanon is included – a key demand from Tehran – and the agreement calls for end to the war in Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting Hezbollah. Israel and Hezbollah aren’t parties to the agreement, however. Iran insists Israel must withdraw from the large area of southern Lebanon it has occupied since March, but as the Associated Press reports, the interim deal doesn’t explicitly require that and only affirms a commitment to ensuring Lebanon’s “territorial integrity”. Israel has vowed to keep its troops in the zone, while the Iran-backed Hezbollah says it is committed to resisting Israel “until full withdrawal is achieved”. View image in fullscreen An Israeli flag covers a part of a damaged building in southern Lebanon, as seen from northern Israel, on Thursday. Photograph: Ariel Schalit/AP Share Updated at 07.45 CEST 2h ago 07.23 CEST Trump’s Iran deal met with anger, relief and incredulity Jonathan Yerushalmy Pakistan’s prime minister has hailed the “peaceful resolution” of the conflict between the US and Iran, while congratulating the leadership of both countries for signing an agreement that he claimed would immediately reopen of the strait of Hormuz. But amid the celebrations from Shehbaz Sharif – who has served as mediator for the deal – the release of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) that gets the ball rolling on the next 60 days of negotiations between Iran and the US has proven more divisive, eliciting a mixture of outrage, bewilderment and relief. In France, the leaders of the G7 countries welcomed the deal, calling it a “historic opportunity to prevent Iran from acquiring any nuclear weapon”. European leaders have largely been sidelined from the negotiations, but expressed relief that the strait of Hormuz would reopen, allowing the flow of oil to resume. Emmanuel Macron said it would put a stop to a “situation of great instability that had terrible consequences for our economies”. In Israel, however, the agreement has been greeted with less optimism. Mark Regev, a former senior adviser to prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, questioned how seriously Iran would approach negotiations over its nuclear program now that America has removed the economic and military “pressure”. His views were reflected across Israel. See the full report here: Donald Trump’s Iran deal met with anger, relief and incredulity Read more View image in fullscreen Netanyahu and Trump in Florida in December. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Share Updated at 07.57 CEST 2h ago 07.03 CEST Natasha May continues from her last post: Philippines president Ferdinand R Marcos Jr was also optimistic, saying the freedom of navigation returning to the Hormuz strait was “what we have been hoping for since the day after the war started”. However, he acknowledged that recovery from the crisis would take time due to the scale of instability, saying: double quotation mark Because of the enormity of the problem, of the instability that this war has caused – it’s inevitable that it will take some time for us to adjust back to what will be the new normal. The Middle East conflict has provided a “stark wake-up call” for south-east Asia’s energy system, the International Energy Agency said in a new report – exposing deep structural vulnerabilities linked to import dependence, limited diversification and concentrated supply routes. If these energy security vulnerabilities were not addressed, the report predicted, the region’s energy import bill could more than triple from $80bn in 2024 to $245bn by 2035. Share Updated at 07.06 CEST 2h ago 06.58 CEST Natasha May South-east Asian nations – which were amongst the first and the hardest hit by the energy crisis due to their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil – have welcomed the US-Iran agreement on ending the war, particularly relieved at the reopening of the strait of Hormuz. Before the crisis, about 60% of south-east Asia’s imports of crude oil and a third of its imports of gas were coming from the Middle East, while 45% of its oil product supply were dependent on Middle Eastern crude. The conflict led to immediate price shocks and governments across the region implementing policies such as encouraging the public to reduce their air conditioning and working from home. Thailand’s ministry of foreign affairs said in a statement this week that the country “warmly welcomes the agreement reached” and hoped it would lead to “lasting peace and stability in the region, global economic stability and freedom of navigation through the strait of Hormuz”. Domestic diesel prices in Thailand have seen a steady decline over the past week, with energy minister Akanat Promphan projecting that if the situation in Middle East remained stable, oil prices would likely return to normal in the near future. View image in fullscreen A petrol station in Ayutthaya, central Thailand, where premium diesel had run out in late March amid the Iran war. Photograph: Rebecca Ratcliffe/The Guardian Share Updated at 07.04 CEST 2h ago 06.49 CEST US-Iran deal takes immediate effect, says Pakistan Pakistan’s prime minister said earlier in the day that the agreement between the US and Iran agreement was taking “immediate effect” after being signed by both sides. Shehbaz Sharif said on social media that “as a first step, Islamic Republic of Iran will instantly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the United States of America will immediately lift the naval blockade”. Sharif, who helped mediate the memorandum of understanding, also reportedly said there would still be a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday to “commemorate this landmark event and commence with the technical level talks”. Share Updated at 07.13 CEST

Like most people settling in the area, Pablo Peña was seeking to escape violence and make a living from a patch of land when he moved to Guaviare in central Colombia. While his life has been strongly marked by conflict and deforestation, more than 30 years on he now focuses on community work and conservation. Peña first visited Guaviare during his mandatory military service. Years later, in 1994, he settled down to farm in Guaviare’s Calamar, a town in a remote corner of the Amazon. “When the guerrillas went to Havana [in 2012] to negotiate the peace treaty with [former president Juan Manuel] Santos, we realised that we didn’t even know where we had settled or the boundaries of our land,” says Peña. “Then we decided to protect our land.” View image in fullscreen Former coca farmer Pablo Peña, who is now deeply involved in conservation and safeguarding of land around the Amazonian town of Calamar. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian In 2018, Peña and his fellow campesinos began the process of creating a peasant reserve zone (ZRC), a designated land-use area aimed at safeguarding rural communities, supporting local farmers and stabilising their territories amid conflict that remains ongoing despite the 2016 ceasefire. Reserve zones have been at the heart of President Gustavo Petro’s plans to improve farmers’ livelihoods while tackling deforestation and protecting biodiversity in the Amazon. During the past four years, his government has created 20 of the 27 existing zones. View image in fullscreen Rightwing presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella speaks to supporters from behind bulletproof glass during a campaign rally on 9 June 2026. Photograph: Manuel Pedraza/AFP/Getty Images The Colombian government officially approved the request for a ZRC in 2025. But Petro’s presidential term is coming to an end and a far-right candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella, is competing with the leftwing Iván Cepeda in a highly polarised election. Farmers such as Peña fear for the future of the ZRCs if the far right wins in the second round on 21 June. De la Espriella won the first round by a narrow margin over Cepeda on 31 May. The run-off election will show whether Colombians support a continuation of Petro’s policies, based on dialogue and reform, or return to a hardline militarised strategy proposed by De la Espriella. Like many others, Peña was drawn to Guaviare by a surge in coca leaf production in Colombia. A few years later, he bought his first plot of land – which lacked title deeds. The price: a kilo of coca paste. The land Peña occupied was within a forest reserve, further complicating property rights under Colombian law. According to the ministry of agriculture, before the peace treaty this was not an exceptional situation, as at least 40% of rural land in Colombia lacked formal titles. With the “war on drugs” and intensive programmes to eradicate plantations in Colombia, many farmers, including Peña, who had been growing coca leaves shifted to raising cattle, leading to increased deforestation. Between 2002 and 2025, Guaviare lost 350,000 hectares (865,000 acres) of forest – an area nearly five times the size of Singapore. View image in fullscreen A farmer herds cattle inside the ZRC. Ranching has replaced coca farming, which until the beginning of the 2000s was one of the main sources of income in the region. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian “While you could survive with five hectares of coca, cattle needed larger extensions of land,” Peña says. Some ZRCs have become more sustainable, however. In Calamar, the Guardian of Chiribiquete, a peasant reserve covering 183,200 hectares and supporting 4,430 people, was officially established in 2025. It is named after the nearby Chiribiquete national park, a Unesco world heritage site, which has inspired the community’s efforts to develop sustainable economies. ZRCs are essentially a mechanism for bringing farmers into the institutional framework and away from armed groups’ territorial control, but they have also had a positive impact on the environment when followed by investments in sustainable development, according to Camilo González Posso, founder of Indepaz, a peacebuilding NGO, and a former government peace negotiator. “The law requires that these zones create sustainable development plans in collaboration with institutions, while the government has a commitment to contributing to the development of sustainable economies through investment and programmes,” González Posso says. View image in fullscreen Antonio Riveros walks through his 10-hectare conservation plot. Most of the ZRC members preserve an area of natural forest on their land as part of an agreement between the group and the government. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian Within the Guardian of Chiribiquete, almost half of the native forest remains intact. Community members work to protect the area while planting native trees and Amazonian fruits, such as cacao and copoazú, to generate income. Supported by organisations such as the conservation charity WWF and the reforestation programme Visión Amazonía, residents have been establishing plant nurseries, restoring waterways and receiving training in woodworking. While its members recognise the need to reduce deforestation, cattle remain an important part of people’s lives and livelihoods, so many hope that a smooth transition to sustainable practices can take place without affecting their finances. View image in fullscreen A group of women, members of the ZRC, work as a collective in El Guadual plant nursery. “This job helps us to be empowered and independent,” says one. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian “Although we live in a hidden corner of the country, we understand the damage caused to nature, and we are trying to compensate for the damage caused without affecting our economies,” says Leydy Janneth García, a representative of the conservation project Green Amazon. García and her family arrived in Guaviare in 2018 after fleeing conflict. They bought land previously used for coca cultivation and planted cacao, which thrived as the coca trees withered. Their farm now also produces oranges, avocados, chontaduro (also known as peach palm) and tamarind, sharing spaces with a small herd of cattle. Nearly half of their land, 14.5 hectares, is set aside for conservation. View image in fullscreen Leydy Janneth García with her son Martín in their home inside the ZRC. García and her husband Elver grow avocado, orange, cocoa, and other fruit in a former coca field. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian Yet most farmers in ZRCs feel unsure about what will happen to them and to the Amazon after the general election. Many feel Petro has ensured the right to land but not security, as he failed to bring armed groups under control. They believe Cepeda would follow the same path. There are also fears that a far-right government led by De la Espriella would bring back the conflict and prioritise large landowners, extensive farming and agribusiness growth at the expense of the environment. “History shows that the current government has demonstrated this determination, but political will alone, without security, is not enough,” says Jesús Cuestas, a farmer and ZRC member. While acknowledging progress made by Petro’s government in land rights, farmers remain concerned about guerrillas’ increasing influence. “Under Petro’s administration, armed groups have expanded, and we fear that if Cepeda wins, this trend will continue,” says García. View image in fullscreen ZRC members gather to vote for their officers and representatives. Collective participation in the process has been fundamental to the success of the ZRCs. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian On the other hand, the prospect of a rightwing administration is even more concerning for experts such as González Posso. De La Espriella supports fracking and intends to expand its use, leading to fears about the impact on the environment and local communities. He has also urged Colombia to withdraw from the UN, which could impact international investment in rural initiatives and peace efforts. “De la Espriella links development to extractivism, supporting an extensive livestock model and benefiting the wealthy landowners,” he says. González Posso fears that a far-right administration could bring more violence, not just from armed groups. He says farmers are likely to resist being expelled from their lands to benefit the agroindustry, and guerrillas would be empowered by extensive livestock farming, which is more lucrative, so they could increase extortion practices by charging landowners for each head of cattle and hectare of pasture, and imposing a fine for each hectare of deforested land. “Cepeda aims to strengthen a sustainable economy created with and for the people. It’s crucial to develop a medium-term strategy that integrates ZRCs, peace initiatives and environmental considerations,” says González Posso. View image in fullscreen Farmers watch the first round voting results in a bar in Calamar. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian Whoever wins the election, campesinos agree that the next government will have to bring about far-reaching changes to the country’s rural economy. “We need to shift focus from discussion to action. A great deal of money has been spent, yet not a single peasant survives on conservation or rainforest resources,” says Cuestas. “The day a hectare of rainforest becomes more expensive than a hectare of grass, we will finally have achieved balance.”