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39m ago 08.27 CEST The Swiss foreign ministry said planned talks between the US and Iran in the Buergenstock mountaintop resort in Switzerland are still going ahead on Friday, after both sides signed a ceasefire agreement last night to end the war. “As ‌things stand, the plan is still for the US and Iran, along with mediators Pakistan ‌and Qatar and other involved countries, to ​meet tomorrow at Buergenstock for initial negotiations about implementing the agreement,” the ministry said in a statement. “No ⁠further information is ​currently available ​regarding the schedule ​and details of ​this ‌meeting.” Share 1h ago 08.02 CEST Analysis: Trump’s Iran deal is a result of unrealistic ambitions for an untenable war As the adage goes: no plan of battle survives first contact with the enemy. Donald Trump entered the war with Iran with maximalist goals: eliminating the country’s nuclear programme, destroying its ballistic missile programme and ending its support for regional military groups including Hezbollah and Hamas. He exits it with Iran’s word not to build a bomb and to hold further nuclear discussions, no mention in writing of the ballistic missile programme and with Hezbollah celebrating a “victory” as the memorandum of understanding (MOU) instituted a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israel has seized a swath of the country as a “buffer zone”. Iran’s key asset ended up being the strait of Hormuz, the waterway that almost every previous simulation of the war predicated would be quickly cut off by Iran. To reopen the strait, the administration was forced to fold on its broader goals or face what Trump called a “worldwide depression”. It has been clear for days that the Trump administration was skittish about putting out the text of its MOU. It was only finally read out by a senior administration official on a briefing call on Wednesday, and the White House still has not published a copy online. The reasoning is clear: many in Trump’s own party will hate this deal. The outgoing US senator Bill Cassidy, of Maryland, called it the “worst foreign policy blunder in decades”. The full analysis is here: Trump’s Iran deal is result of unrealistic ambitions for an untenable war Read more Share 1h ago 07.56 CEST German defence minister Boris Pistorius is being quoted as saying just now that before it can participate in any mine-clearing operation in the strait of Hormuz, it will need a permissive environment – meaning approval by Iran and Oman – as well as a parliamentary mandate. On Sunday Donald Trump said the initial reopening of the vital energy-supply route would be for the “purposes of mine removal”. What do we know about how many mines Iran has laid in the strait, what the options are for clearing them, and what are the risks? These are other questions are answered in this explainer: What mines has Iran laid in the strait of Hormuz and how can the US remove them? Read more Share Updated at 08.15 CEST 1h ago 07.44 CEST The Israeli military says one of its soldiers was killed during fighting in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, while seven others were injured in the incident. Master Sergeant (Res.) Alexander Filin, a 29-year-old from Haifa, was killed in combat, the Israel Defence Forces said in a statement posted on Telegram on Thursday. As well, an officer, a reserve officer and a reserve soldier were moderately injured, it said. A combat non-commissioned officer, two reserve soldiers and a female reserve soldier were lightly injured, the IDF said. Under the US-Iran ceasefire deal, Lebanon is included – a key demand from Tehran – and the agreement calls for end to the war in Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting Hezbollah. Israel and Hezbollah aren’t parties to the agreement, however. Iran insists Israel must withdraw from the large area of southern Lebanon it has occupied since March, but as the Associated Press reports, the interim deal doesn’t explicitly require that and only affirms a commitment to ensuring Lebanon’s “territorial integrity”. Israel has vowed to keep its troops in the zone, while the Iran-backed Hezbollah says it is committed to resisting Israel “until full withdrawal is achieved”. View image in fullscreen An Israeli flag covers a part of a damaged building in southern Lebanon, as seen from northern Israel, on Thursday. Photograph: Ariel Schalit/AP Share Updated at 07.45 CEST 2h ago 07.23 CEST Trump’s Iran deal met with anger, relief and incredulity Jonathan Yerushalmy Pakistan’s prime minister has hailed the “peaceful resolution” of the conflict between the US and Iran, while congratulating the leadership of both countries for signing an agreement that he claimed would immediately reopen of the strait of Hormuz. But amid the celebrations from Shehbaz Sharif – who has served as mediator for the deal – the release of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) that gets the ball rolling on the next 60 days of negotiations between Iran and the US has proven more divisive, eliciting a mixture of outrage, bewilderment and relief. In France, the leaders of the G7 countries welcomed the deal, calling it a “historic opportunity to prevent Iran from acquiring any nuclear weapon”. European leaders have largely been sidelined from the negotiations, but expressed relief that the strait of Hormuz would reopen, allowing the flow of oil to resume. Emmanuel Macron said it would put a stop to a “situation of great instability that had terrible consequences for our economies”. In Israel, however, the agreement has been greeted with less optimism. Mark Regev, a former senior adviser to prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, questioned how seriously Iran would approach negotiations over its nuclear program now that America has removed the economic and military “pressure”. His views were reflected across Israel. See the full report here: Donald Trump’s Iran deal met with anger, relief and incredulity Read more View image in fullscreen Netanyahu and Trump in Florida in December. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Share Updated at 07.57 CEST 2h ago 07.03 CEST Natasha May continues from her last post: Philippines president Ferdinand R Marcos Jr was also optimistic, saying the freedom of navigation returning to the Hormuz strait was “what we have been hoping for since the day after the war started”. However, he acknowledged that recovery from the crisis would take time due to the scale of instability, saying: double quotation mark Because of the enormity of the problem, of the instability that this war has caused – it’s inevitable that it will take some time for us to adjust back to what will be the new normal. The Middle East conflict has provided a “stark wake-up call” for south-east Asia’s energy system, the International Energy Agency said in a new report – exposing deep structural vulnerabilities linked to import dependence, limited diversification and concentrated supply routes. If these energy security vulnerabilities were not addressed, the report predicted, the region’s energy import bill could more than triple from $80bn in 2024 to $245bn by 2035. Share Updated at 07.06 CEST 2h ago 06.58 CEST Natasha May South-east Asian nations – which were amongst the first and the hardest hit by the energy crisis due to their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil – have welcomed the US-Iran agreement on ending the war, particularly relieved at the reopening of the strait of Hormuz. Before the crisis, about 60% of south-east Asia’s imports of crude oil and a third of its imports of gas were coming from the Middle East, while 45% of its oil product supply were dependent on Middle Eastern crude. The conflict led to immediate price shocks and governments across the region implementing policies such as encouraging the public to reduce their air conditioning and working from home. Thailand’s ministry of foreign affairs said in a statement this week that the country “warmly welcomes the agreement reached” and hoped it would lead to “lasting peace and stability in the region, global economic stability and freedom of navigation through the strait of Hormuz”. Domestic diesel prices in Thailand have seen a steady decline over the past week, with energy minister Akanat Promphan projecting that if the situation in Middle East remained stable, oil prices would likely return to normal in the near future. View image in fullscreen A petrol station in Ayutthaya, central Thailand, where premium diesel had run out in late March amid the Iran war. Photograph: Rebecca Ratcliffe/The Guardian Share Updated at 07.04 CEST 2h ago 06.49 CEST US-Iran deal takes immediate effect, says Pakistan Pakistan’s prime minister said earlier in the day that the agreement between the US and Iran agreement was taking “immediate effect” after being signed by both sides. Shehbaz Sharif said on social media that “as a first step, Islamic Republic of Iran will instantly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the United States of America will immediately lift the naval blockade”. Sharif, who helped mediate the memorandum of understanding, also reportedly said there would still be a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday to “commemorate this landmark event and commence with the technical level talks”. Share Updated at 07.13 CEST

Like most people settling in the area, Pablo Peña was seeking to escape violence and make a living from a patch of land when he moved to Guaviare in central Colombia. While his life has been strongly marked by conflict and deforestation, more than 30 years on he now focuses on community work and conservation. Peña first visited Guaviare during his mandatory military service. Years later, in 1994, he settled down to farm in Guaviare’s Calamar, a town in a remote corner of the Amazon. “When the guerrillas went to Havana [in 2012] to negotiate the peace treaty with [former president Juan Manuel] Santos, we realised that we didn’t even know where we had settled or the boundaries of our land,” says Peña. “Then we decided to protect our land.” View image in fullscreen Former coca farmer Pablo Peña, who is now deeply involved in conservation and safeguarding of land around the Amazonian town of Calamar. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian In 2018, Peña and his fellow campesinos began the process of creating a peasant reserve zone (ZRC), a designated land-use area aimed at safeguarding rural communities, supporting local farmers and stabilising their territories amid conflict that remains ongoing despite the 2016 ceasefire. Reserve zones have been at the heart of President Gustavo Petro’s plans to improve farmers’ livelihoods while tackling deforestation and protecting biodiversity in the Amazon. During the past four years, his government has created 20 of the 27 existing zones. View image in fullscreen Rightwing presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella speaks to supporters from behind bulletproof glass during a campaign rally on 9 June 2026. Photograph: Manuel Pedraza/AFP/Getty Images The Colombian government officially approved the request for a ZRC in 2025. But Petro’s presidential term is coming to an end and a far-right candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella, is competing with the leftwing Iván Cepeda in a highly polarised election. Farmers such as Peña fear for the future of the ZRCs if the far right wins in the second round on 21 June. De la Espriella won the first round by a narrow margin over Cepeda on 31 May. The run-off election will show whether Colombians support a continuation of Petro’s policies, based on dialogue and reform, or return to a hardline militarised strategy proposed by De la Espriella. Like many others, Peña was drawn to Guaviare by a surge in coca leaf production in Colombia. A few years later, he bought his first plot of land – which lacked title deeds. The price: a kilo of coca paste. The land Peña occupied was within a forest reserve, further complicating property rights under Colombian law. According to the ministry of agriculture, before the peace treaty this was not an exceptional situation, as at least 40% of rural land in Colombia lacked formal titles. With the “war on drugs” and intensive programmes to eradicate plantations in Colombia, many farmers, including Peña, who had been growing coca leaves shifted to raising cattle, leading to increased deforestation. Between 2002 and 2025, Guaviare lost 350,000 hectares (865,000 acres) of forest – an area nearly five times the size of Singapore. View image in fullscreen A farmer herds cattle inside the ZRC. Ranching has replaced coca farming, which until the beginning of the 2000s was one of the main sources of income in the region. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian “While you could survive with five hectares of coca, cattle needed larger extensions of land,” Peña says. Some ZRCs have become more sustainable, however. In Calamar, the Guardian of Chiribiquete, a peasant reserve covering 183,200 hectares and supporting 4,430 people, was officially established in 2025. It is named after the nearby Chiribiquete national park, a Unesco world heritage site, which has inspired the community’s efforts to develop sustainable economies. ZRCs are essentially a mechanism for bringing farmers into the institutional framework and away from armed groups’ territorial control, but they have also had a positive impact on the environment when followed by investments in sustainable development, according to Camilo González Posso, founder of Indepaz, a peacebuilding NGO, and a former government peace negotiator. “The law requires that these zones create sustainable development plans in collaboration with institutions, while the government has a commitment to contributing to the development of sustainable economies through investment and programmes,” González Posso says. View image in fullscreen Antonio Riveros walks through his 10-hectare conservation plot. Most of the ZRC members preserve an area of natural forest on their land as part of an agreement between the group and the government. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian Within the Guardian of Chiribiquete, almost half of the native forest remains intact. Community members work to protect the area while planting native trees and Amazonian fruits, such as cacao and copoazú, to generate income. Supported by organisations such as the conservation charity WWF and the reforestation programme Visión Amazonía, residents have been establishing plant nurseries, restoring waterways and receiving training in woodworking. While its members recognise the need to reduce deforestation, cattle remain an important part of people’s lives and livelihoods, so many hope that a smooth transition to sustainable practices can take place without affecting their finances. View image in fullscreen A group of women, members of the ZRC, work as a collective in El Guadual plant nursery. “This job helps us to be empowered and independent,” says one. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian “Although we live in a hidden corner of the country, we understand the damage caused to nature, and we are trying to compensate for the damage caused without affecting our economies,” says Leydy Janneth García, a representative of the conservation project Green Amazon. García and her family arrived in Guaviare in 2018 after fleeing conflict. They bought land previously used for coca cultivation and planted cacao, which thrived as the coca trees withered. Their farm now also produces oranges, avocados, chontaduro (also known as peach palm) and tamarind, sharing spaces with a small herd of cattle. Nearly half of their land, 14.5 hectares, is set aside for conservation. View image in fullscreen Leydy Janneth García with her son Martín in their home inside the ZRC. García and her husband Elver grow avocado, orange, cocoa, and other fruit in a former coca field. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian Yet most farmers in ZRCs feel unsure about what will happen to them and to the Amazon after the general election. Many feel Petro has ensured the right to land but not security, as he failed to bring armed groups under control. They believe Cepeda would follow the same path. There are also fears that a far-right government led by De la Espriella would bring back the conflict and prioritise large landowners, extensive farming and agribusiness growth at the expense of the environment. “History shows that the current government has demonstrated this determination, but political will alone, without security, is not enough,” says Jesús Cuestas, a farmer and ZRC member. While acknowledging progress made by Petro’s government in land rights, farmers remain concerned about guerrillas’ increasing influence. “Under Petro’s administration, armed groups have expanded, and we fear that if Cepeda wins, this trend will continue,” says García. View image in fullscreen ZRC members gather to vote for their officers and representatives. Collective participation in the process has been fundamental to the success of the ZRCs. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian On the other hand, the prospect of a rightwing administration is even more concerning for experts such as González Posso. De La Espriella supports fracking and intends to expand its use, leading to fears about the impact on the environment and local communities. He has also urged Colombia to withdraw from the UN, which could impact international investment in rural initiatives and peace efforts. “De la Espriella links development to extractivism, supporting an extensive livestock model and benefiting the wealthy landowners,” he says. González Posso fears that a far-right administration could bring more violence, not just from armed groups. He says farmers are likely to resist being expelled from their lands to benefit the agroindustry, and guerrillas would be empowered by extensive livestock farming, which is more lucrative, so they could increase extortion practices by charging landowners for each head of cattle and hectare of pasture, and imposing a fine for each hectare of deforested land. “Cepeda aims to strengthen a sustainable economy created with and for the people. It’s crucial to develop a medium-term strategy that integrates ZRCs, peace initiatives and environmental considerations,” says González Posso. View image in fullscreen Farmers watch the first round voting results in a bar in Calamar. Photograph: Antonio Cascio/The Guardian Whoever wins the election, campesinos agree that the next government will have to bring about far-reaching changes to the country’s rural economy. “We need to shift focus from discussion to action. A great deal of money has been spent, yet not a single peasant survives on conservation or rainforest resources,” says Cuestas. “The day a hectare of rainforest becomes more expensive than a hectare of grass, we will finally have achieved balance.”

The announcement from Egypt’s petroleum and mineral resources minister Karim Badawi that the country has paid all its outstanding debts to foreign oil firms is as welcome to international oil companies and their governments as it is to the country itself. Egypt has become one of the West’s prime targets in the hunt for replacement gas supplies after the loss of Russian flows following the 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Officially, it holds around 93 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves, but unofficially, it is believed to hold three or four times that at least. In fact, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the Nile Delta Basin Province alone holds up to 286 Tcf of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas. Its strategic weight is amplified by its sitting astride so many critical hydrocarbon transit routes, and by its longstanding political influence across the Arab world. So, the payment of the near-US$6.1 billion owed to international firms clears the way for the planned expansion of Western gas and oil developments across the country. However, as with all such global energy reservoirs, China and Russia are looking to do precisely the same thing and overtake the significant on-the-ground advantage established by the West. Looking ahead, Egypt has implemented a strict, multi-layered economic defence mechanism specifically designed to prevent another vicious cycle of foreign currency depletion and runaway debt. It was the enormous wave of development of primarily Egypt’s gas reserves that previously helped exacerbate the serious currency problem in the country that began in earnest after Russia invaded Ukraine. Not only did this dramatically increase prices for wheat in the country (one of the world’s biggest importers of the foodstuff) but it also led to the removal of billions of dollars’ worth of foreign investment from the country. That said, on 6 March 2024, Egypt was allowed by the IMF to expand its US$8 billion financial support package and further offers of financial aid were opened from the World Bank and the European Union. The key measure in this debt-defence package that will work to the advantage of foreign firms operating in Egypt is that it is drastically reducing the level of state ownership in energy projects to further limit the country’s sovereign liability if projects face delays. Another key measure likely to significantly reduce the chance of a new debt spiral precluding regular payments to international oil companies is the abandonment by the Central Bank of Egypt of the artificial pegging of the Egyptian pound. Related: Australian LNG Strike Threatens Global Gas Supply as Qatar Recovery Lags Given the very recent settlement of its energy sector debt, Egypt is likely to see a major expansion in the activity of Western firms in the very near future. British supermajor Shell is targeting Q4 this year for first gas at the Mina West field in the deepwater Northeast El Amriya concession in the Mediterranean Sea. Initial flow tests are clocking in at 45 million standard cubic feet of gas per day (mmcf/d) alongside 1,000 barrels per day (bpd) of high-value condensates, while Phase 1 of the project is engineered to inject a total of 160 mmcf/d of gas and 3,000 bpd of condensates directly into Egypt’s domestic grid. Shell is also set to further explore the Sirius exploratory well and the potentially ultra-high-reward Velox well in the North Cleopatra block within the Herodotus Basin. At the same time U.S. supermajor Chevron has launched new drilling at the giant Nargis field, with a very conservatively estimated 3.5 Tcf of natural gas reserves. The firm has also secured a 27% participating interest in the ultra-deepwater North Cleopatra offshore block that places it directly alongside operator Shell (36%), QatarEnergy (27%), and Tharwa Petroleum (10%) in a massive collaborative exploration front along some of Egypt’s primary gas assets. Moreover, Italian giant Eni has committed to an US$8 billion investment plan, including fast-track development at the newly unveiled Denise exploration well (which holds around 2 Tcf of gas) in the East Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Great Britain’s BP has pledged a US$5 billion exploration framework to fund new wells in the Mediterranean and Nile Delta, building on its historic US$12 billion investments in the West Nile Delta project. That said, China has now shifted from its previous focus in Egypt on logistics and manufacturing in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZONE), to its upstream sector. State-owned supermajor China National Offshore Oil Corporation announced its first investment in Egypt’s gas and oil sector last October, targeting deepwater blocks in both the Mediterranean and the Red Sea to secure an entry point into North African upstream markets. Its United Energy Group had earlier signed a memorandum of understanding to explore immediate joint investment opportunities in oil and gas production, renewable energy, and regional energy trading. Underscoring these developments as part of a broader supply chain integration, Chinese firms also launched a US$2.4 billion logistics and container terminal investment at Ain Sokhna Port. This is intended to streamline commodity and energy flows out of the SCZONE. Meanwhile, Russia views Egypt as a critical geostrategic partner to redirect its trade and establish a permanent energy gateway into Africa and the Middle East, given tightening Western sanctions on it. To this effect, state-controlled Zarubezhneft has committed to a US$14 million drilling agreement targeting the onshore North Khatatba block in the Nile Delta, while Rosneft maintains a 30% stake in the giant offshore Zohr gas field. On a broader note, Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a framework to transform Egypt into a centralised Russian grain and energy hub, looking to blend fuel and agricultural distributions to sidestep European shipping sanctions. The leader’s longer-term ambitions were reflected in the US$25 billion financing package agreed in 2017 to construct the Al-Dabaa nuclear power plant in Egypt. The construction phase as stalled at around 33% complete, but the first reactor is still supposedly on track to connect to the power grid in 2028, with all four units fully operational by 2030. Given how the U.S. and its allies have regarded Iran’s nuclear industry over the years, it appears unlikely that these deadlines will be met. The degree to which both Western and Eastern powers want to expand their footprints in Egypt reflects more than just the country’s gas and oil reserves. For a start, it is also the only country in the Eastern Mediterranean gas hotspot region with operational liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity and is consequently ideally placed to become the top regional export hub for the gas. Equally important is Egypt’s command of one of the world’s great maritime bottlenecks -- the Suez Canal -- a route that historically has carried roughly a tenth of global oil and LNG shipments. The country also controls the Suez–Mediterranean Pipeline, linking the Ain Sokhna terminal on the Gulf of Suez to the export hub at Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast. This line provides a critical workaround for moving Gulf crude to the Mediterranean without relying on the canal itself. The strategic value of the Suez system is heightened further by the fact that it is among the few major energy transit points not under China’s direct influence. Specifically, Beijing already has considerable control over the Strait of Hormuz through the all-encompassing ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’, as fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. The same deal also gives China a hold over the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which commodities are shipped upwards through the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal before moving into the Mediterranean and then westwards. This was achieved as it lies between Yemen (the Houthis having long been supported by Iran) and Djibouti (over which China has also established a stranglehold through debts connected to its multi-generational Belt and Road Initiative’ power-grab project). Finally, Egypt has long been viewed as a political heavyweight in the Arab world — in many respects rivalling, and at times surpassing, Saudi Arabia’s influence. Cairo was a central force behind the rise of Pan?Arabism after the two World Wars, the movement that argued that Arab strength lay in shared political, cultural, and economic identity, with its most prominent advocate being Egypt’s own Gamal Abdel Nasser, who led the country from 1954 to 1970. The era produced several defining expressions of this ideology: the union between Egypt and Syria as the United Arab Republic from 1958 to 1961; the creation of OPEC in 1960; repeated confrontations with Israel; and ultimately the 1973–74 oil embargo — all explored in detail in my latest book. For both the West and the East, Egypt is still ultimately about far more than gas and oil. It is a contest for the only state in the region that combines major reserves, LNG export capacity, control of critical sea lanes, and a legacy of political leadership across the Arab world. By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Economic data released on Monday were lukewarm. U.S. industrial production rose +0.1% m/m in May, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m, while manufacturing production was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Separately, the U.S. June Empire State manufacturing index fell to 5.7, weaker than expectations of 13.2. In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed sharply higher, with the Dow posting a new record high. The Magnificent Seven stocks climbed, with Meta Platforms (META) rising over +4% and Nvidia (NVDA) gaining more than +3%. Also, chip and AI infrastructure stocks rallied, with Western Digital (WDC) jumping over +16% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Micron Technology (MU) surging more than +10%. In addition, travel stocks advanced as oil prices sank, with Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) climbing over +6% and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) rising more than +3%. On the bearish side, Fox Corp. (FOXA) tumbled over -16% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company agreed to acquire Roku in a deal valued at about $22 billion, including debt. The price of WTI crude fell more than -2% on Tuesday as expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen this week continued to unwind the geopolitical risk premium embedded in the market. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday at the start of the Group of Seven talks that “the deal is already signed and the strait is already partially opened,” adding that “ships are starting to go out now, and on Friday it will be completely opened.” Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs lowered their oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, with the latter now expecting Persian Gulf exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July. The 10-year T-note yield fell three basis points to 4.45% as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns. June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are down -0.01%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are up +0.01% this morning, taking a breather after a three-day rally, while investors turn their attention to the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh. Story Continues “The equity market started the week with a boost from the U.S.-Iran deal, but it will quickly search for a new source of momentum. While that won’t come in the form of a Fed rate cut, this week’s meeting will still be an opportunity for investors to get a read on how new Chair Kevin Warsh may pursue his longer-term agenda,” according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day, the first helmed by new Chairman Kevin Warsh. The central bank is widely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, as it assesses how the Iran war’s energy-price shock is filtering through the economy. Investors will be watching for any signals on whether a rate hike is likely. Economists expect the FOMC to remove the so-called “easing bias” from its post-meeting statement and instead signal that its next policy move is just as likely to be a hike or eliminate the line in question altogether. Investors will also focus on how Warsh communicates at the press conference. In addition, the Fed will release updated projections for the economy along with its “dot plot” interest-rate forecasts, and there is speculation that Warsh may choose not to submit his dots to signal his opposition to so-called forward guidance. On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the import price index to rise +0.9% m/m and the export price index to rise +1.2% m/m in May, compared to the previous month’s figures of +1.9% m/m and +3.3% m/m, respectively. U.S. Building Permits (preliminary) and Housing Starts data will also be released today. Economists expect May Building Permits to be 1.420 million and Housing Starts to be 1.430 million, compared to the April figures of 1.423 million and 1.465 million, respectively. In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.45%, down -0.76%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.83% this morning, extending the previous session’s rally sparked by an interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices extended their declines, easing inflation concerns and buoying market sentiment. Industrial and bank stocks were among the biggest gainers on Tuesday. Citigroup strategists said in a note on Tuesday that a wide range of sectors remain below pre-conflict levels, suggesting greater potential for a second phase of the recovery. The ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday that German investor sentiment improved much more than expected in June amid hopes that the Middle East conflict will end soon and lead to lower energy prices. Separately, final data from the statistics agency ISTAT confirmed that the Italian annual inflation rate rose to 3.2% in May. Investor focus is now shifting to this week’s policy decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England, while other European central banks, including those of Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden, will also announce their monetary policy decisions. In corporate news, STMicroelectronics (STMPA.FP) dropped over -2% after announcing plans to issue $1.5 billion worth of convertible bonds. Italy’s CPI, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and Eurozone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index were released today. The Italian May CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +3.2% y/y, in line with expectations. The German June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 10.5, stronger than expectations of -5.8. The Eurozone June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index arrived at 9.5, stronger than expectations of -7.2. Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.11%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.13%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today as investors digested mixed economic data from the country. Real estate and consumer stocks underperformed on Tuesday. Limiting losses, technology, rare earth, and new energy stocks advanced. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Tuesday showed that China’s consumer spending contracted for the first time since the pandemic in May, while investment weakened in the first five months of 2026, highlighting risks that continue to weigh on the economy. Separate data showed that China’s home prices continued to decline in May, worsening a property crisis that remains a significant drag on domestic demand. At the same time, industrial production picked up pace last month, largely driven by China’s export resilience. The batch of data underscored a two-speed growth pattern in the world’s second-largest economy, with factories supported by surprisingly resilient exports while domestic demand weakened amid a multi-year property market slump. ING’s Lynn Song said that China is likely to introduce additional measures to support consumption, given the emphasis on strengthening domestic demand in the country’s five-year plan. In other news, The Information reported on Tuesday that Chinese AI lab DeepSeek completed its first funding round, raising more than 50 billion yuan ($7.40 billion) under an unusual deal structure. In corporate news, MMG Limited plunged over -11% after the metals miner announced plans to raise about $1.60 billion through a share placement and the issuance of convertible bonds. The Chinese May Industrial Production rose +4.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.4% y/y. The Chinese May Retail Sales fell -0.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.3% y/y. The Chinese Fixed Asset Investment fell -4.1% y/y in the January-May period, weaker than expectations of -2.3% y/y. The Chinese May Unemployment Rate was 5.1%, stronger than expectations of 5.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed slightly higher today, hitting a new record high after the Bank of Japan delivered a widely anticipated rate hike. Metal and conglomerate stocks outperformed on Tuesday. The benchmark index briefly climbed above the 70,000 mark after reopening from the midday recess. The BOJ raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.00% on Tuesday, the highest level since 1995, reinforcing its policy stance against the inflationary risks stemming from the Iran war-driven surge in energy costs. The 7-1 decision ended a pause that had been in place since last December. Board member Toichiro Asada dissented, saying he preferred to stand pat due to the risks the Middle East conflict poses to Japan’s production and employment. The BOJ warned in its policy statement of the risk that underlying inflation could exceed its 2% target due to high energy prices, while adding, “Accommodative financial conditions are expected to be maintained after the change in the policy interest rate, continuing to firmly support economic activity.” The BOJ also decided to pause its bond tapering program from April next year and continue purchasing roughly 2 trillion yen ($12.5 billion) of Japanese government bonds per month. Citi Research strategists said the outcome of the BOJ meeting looks “ideal” for Japan’s equity markets, noting that the decision “maintains accommodative monetary conditions while suppressing sharp fluctuations in exchange rates and long-term interest rates.” In corporate news, Ride-hailing app Go Inc.’s shares gained 10% in their Tokyo trading debut in Japan’s biggest initial public offering of the year to date. Investor attention for the remainder of the week is on Japan’s trade and inflation data for May. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -10.61% to 31.09. Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers SpaceX (SPCX) surged over +10% in pre-market trading, putting the rocket and AI company on course to surpass Amazon.com’s total mar

Oil exports from the U.S. and its ‘Americas’ sphere of influence continue to be the prime beneficiary from the drop in crude output leaving the Middle East. Industry figures showed dirty tanker shipments from the Americas hit an all-time high of 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, up from 13.8 million bpd in April, and a 40% increase from May 2025. Meanwhile, transits through the key Strait of Hormuz global oil route dropped 89% from February to May, with total ship movements dropping from over 3,700 to around 400. “The pattern is likely to continue even when the Strait [of Hormuz] opens up again, as it’ll take months for Middle East volumes to recover to their former levels [before the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict], and some key sites will take several years to do so,” a senior source who works closely with the European Union’s (E.U.) energy security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “Meanwhile, the U.S. has ramped up its own [oil] production to record levels and is helping countries in the Americas -- Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil, mainly -- to do the same,” he added. “It marks a long-term shift in the centre of the world’s global oil and gas gravity,” he underlined. This is precisely what U.S. President Donald Trump wanted to do from his first day in his first term as president, given his extreme dislike of OPEC’s use of its cartel powers over the years against the core interests of Washington and its allies, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. This was first notably seen in the 1973 Oil Crisis in which Saudi Arabia rallied fellow OPEC members into imposing an oil embargo on the U.S. and its allies following their support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. By the end of the embargo in March 1974, the price of oil had risen from around US$3 per barrel to nearly US$11 per barrel, which stoked the fire of a global economic slowdown, especially felt in the West. Then-Saudi Minister of Oil and Mineral Reserves, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, highlighted that this marked a fundamental shift in the world balance of power between the developing nations that produced oil and the developed industrial nations that consumed it. However, with the rise of U.S. shale oil production from around 2010, and OPEC’s attempt to destroy the nascent sector through an Oil Price War from 2014-2016 failing catastrophically, Trump has wanted to critically undermine the cartel’s ability to damage U.S. and allied interests ever since. Indeed, in the subsequent 2020 Oil Price War involving OPEC and started by Saudi Arabia for the same reason as in 2014, Trump expedited progress of the ‘No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act’ (NOPEC), which would open the way for sovereign governments to be sued for predatory pricing and failure to comply with the U.S.’s antitrust laws. It could also break up Saudi Arabian oil supergiant Aramco -- the mainstay of the Kingdom’s existing economic and political systems -- into constituent parts, effectively destroying it. Related: European Gas Prices Tumble 6% On US-Iran Peace Deal Instead, as delineated in the U.S.’s ‘2025 National Security Strategy’, Trump wants the world’s geopolitical system split into three geographical spheres, dominated by a major power in each. China would hold the primary role in Asia, while Russia would either dominate or significantly influence Europe, depending on how any future conflict between European NATO members and Moscow unfolds. But, at the top, the U.S. would maintain overall dominance and exert direct influence across the Americas (North and South America). Naturally, as energy underpins the economies -- and thus politics -- of every country in the world, shifting the centre of dominance in global energy supplies to the Americas is a core part of that aim. The U.S. is playing its part toward that, pumping oil at record highs, around a baseline of 13.6 million bpd, with plans for more down the line. Of the other major oil-producing countries in the Americas, Venezuela is top of Washington’s development agenda, followed by Argentina and then Brazil. Following the landmark removal from power of Nicolás Maduro on 3 January by the U.S., Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined a three-phase plan for the South American oil giant that involved stabilising the country and averting economic collapse, recovering the economy and oil sector, and encouraging an eventual political transition. These efforts have already seen a positive trajectory in oil production, with Venezuelan state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) and its foreign partners averaging 1.155 million bpd of crude production in May, compared to 1.130 million bpd in April and 940,0000 b/d in January. In April, executive vice president Jovanny Martinez, said that the country expects to produce 1.37 million bpd by the end of 2026. There is plenty of scope to do so, as Venezuela still holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves -- roughly 303 billion barrels, or about 17% of the global total -- and of its 14 supergiant oil fields, 11 retain more than half of their original reserves. Most of this is extra-heavy crude oil from the Orinoco Belt that requires more technical expertise to handle than lighter grades but is cheaper to lift and often more profitable to process. With those bottlenecks being addressed, it could again produce millions of barrels per day of cheap-to-lift crude, even if downstream handling remained costly. In fact, as recently as 2008, Venezuela was producing around 3 million bpd of crude oil. One level down in Trump’s list of energy development priorities is Argentina, with Washington having provided a US$20 billion lifeline to the country in October 2025. This was explicitly intended to support President Javier Milei’s pro-market reforms and stabilise the economy for foreign investment. The ‘Reciprocal Trade and Investment Agreement’, which fast-tracks U.S. investment in strategic sectors, including energy and critical minerals, was then signed on 4 February this year. Against this backdrop, several U.S. companies are increasing their oil and gas investment there, particularly in the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which is now being referred to as another Permian Basin due to its scale. Continental Resources recently purchased non-operating interests in four blocks in the Vaca Muerta basin to accelerate expansion, while Chevron is leaning toward making Vaca Muerta a core asset in its global portfolio. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes secured a major order in early 2026 to supply gas compression units for the San Matias Pipeline, supporting gas transport from Vaca Muerta. Overall, Argentina is on track to reach 1 million bpd of oil this year, up 26% from 2025. That said, Brazil is now producing a record-breaking 4 million bpd and over of crude oil, and including natural gas, total hydrocarbon output has hit a new record of 5.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). Industry forecasts are that it may well become one of the world’s top five oil producers by 2030, supported by extensive investment plans from Petrobras and foreign oil companies. These include supermajors from the U.S., focusing now on high-impact exploration and deepwater production rather than the maturing fields. Last October, for example, ExxonMobil achieved its first-ever upstream production in Brazil at the Bacalhau field, which has a capacity of 220,000 bpd. Chevron was awarded new offshore blocks alongside Petrobras and ExxonMobil last June, and Baker Hughes and Halliburton supply equipment and engineering for Petrobras’s US$109 billion five-year investment plan. Washington is cognisant not just of Brazil’s further massive oil and gas potential but also of its geopolitical importance as one of the original ‘BRIC’ (Brazil, Russia, India, China) emerging-market powerhouses, and its geographical position in the U.S.’s ‘backyard’. With China weakened economically from where it was before Covid, and Russia near economic and military collapse as the war in Ukraine drags into its fifth year, Washington may never have a better opportunity to put Trump’s new world order into place. The Americas hemisphere already accounts for 32% of global crude production and is growing every year, with new supply from the U.S. Permian Basin, offshore Guyana, Argentine shale, and increased flows from Brazil and Venezuela. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs, Caleb Orr, highlighted recently that Ecuador and El Salvador are also among the governments Washington works with “hand in glove” on security. He added that security is the “table stakes” for any productive economic relationship and the foundation of the broad-based change in the Americas. The sentiments have been underlined by National Energy Dominance Council executive director Jarrod Agen, who recently said: “The Western Hemisphere is now the leading driver of energy in the world; we are the centre of the energy world from Alaska down to Venezuela, and what we want is the crude product coming out of Alaska, coming out of Venezuela, coming into U.S. refineries, getting refined, and then exporting to the world.” By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com