تابع رؤية 2030
بذكاء سياقي

If a US-Iran deal is about to be reached, three months on from the launch of Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, it will not be a day too soon for oil markets, which are approaching a dangerous tipping point. The cost of a barrel of crude on the spot market – for immediate purchase, effectively – has bounced about $100 since Iran predictably responded to the onslaught from the US and Israel by closing the strait of Hormuz. That price remains well below historic highs, and because it has not surged into the stratosphere, it can look as though markets have settled into an uneasy stasis. Yet beneath the surface, every week that goes by has drawn the energy markets closer to what economists call a “non-linear adjustment”, wonk-speak for chaos. Thus far, several factors have helped to ease potential supply constraints, including a record coordinated release of strategic oil reserves; rerouting of some Gulf production to pipelines, bypassing the strait of Hormuz; and a rapid fall in imports to China, which some analysts believe may reflect Beijing drawing down stockpiles. But the International Energy Agency (IEA), whose executive director, Fatih Birol, has been sounding the alarm from the start, said last week that oil stocks are being depleted at a record rate. And several analysts have issued warnings in recent weeks that the point may be fast approaching when they drop to crisis levels. That could push prices so high as to cause “demand destruction” – the falling back of consumption to meet constrained supply – on a scale much more economically damaging than anything we have yet seen. Hamad Hussain, who covers climate and commodities for the consultancy Capital Economics, warned recently: “If the strait remains effectively closed and commercial oil inventories in the OECD continue to be run down at the same pace as they were in April, oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June.” He suggested that that could push Brent crude prices to $130-$140 a barrel; and risk “more disorderly and economically damaging cuts to oil demand”. His warning echoed earlier analysis by JP Morgan’s Natasha Kaneva, who said stocks in OECD countries could reach “operational stress levels” by early next month. “Well before the system is emptied, high prices begin to ration demand,” she said. “Consumers drive less, industry cuts runs, airlines trim schedules, and refiners reduce throughput,” she added, describing this as a shift from a “managed” adjustment to a “forced” one. View image in fullscreen Women on a beach in front of an oil tanker near the port in Fos-sur-Mer, southern France. Photograph: Guillaume Horcajuelo/EPA Or, as the IEA warned: “With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period.” The US has been relatively insulated from the impact of the oil shock, as a net exporter of crude since the shale boom. But American consumers are not protected from surging global energy prices. Research by Prof Jeff Colgan, at Brown University, suggested last week that consumers have paid an extraordinary $40bn (about £30bn), or $300 per household, in additional gasolene costs since the war began. And the Washington-based Institute for International Finance (IIF) fretted last week, in an edition of its regular capital flows report, called The Long Tail of the Shock, that disruption is now spreading far beyond the oil markets. “The first phase of the shock centred on the rapid repricing of oil as markets reacted to disruption risks across the Middle East and critical shipping routes. The second phase is proving more consequential because the adjustment is spreading across LNG [liquid natural gas], refined products, fertilisers, shipping, and industrial inputs, creating a broader deterioration in supply reliability and production efficiency,” the IIF said. The institute underlined the fact that oil prices, which tend to fall on every fresh rumour of a peace deal, may have underplayed the seriousness of the wider disruption under way. “Crude benchmarks may soften intermittently as recession fears rise or geopolitical tensions ease temporarily, while LNG, fertilisers, freight costs and selected industrial inputs remain elevated, because the broader issue is no longer spot oil supply alone, but the reliability and flexibility of the global production system itself,” it said. It is unclear as yet whether any deal will involve a complete reopening of the strait of Hormuz, with Tehran relinquishing control. Even if marine traffic rapidly resumes, however, the IIF predicts only a “partial normalisation”, with the energy system remaining “tighter and more fragile than before the shock”. Indeed, by demonstrating that it is no longer willing or able to police free navigation through the waterways of the Middle East, the US may in effect have semi-permanently raised the cost of global commodities. In the teeth of the immediate crisis, governments in scores of countries have already introduced measures to constrain energy demand, in an attempt to limit the impact of the crisis on consumers. And forecasters have marked down expectations of GDP growth in oil-importing countries, as higher costs bear down on economic demand. But if peace talks falter yet again, and the weeks continue to tick by without resolution, the oil market could enter a new and more volatile phase. In the short-term, that would mean surging inflation and perhaps outright shortages of oil-based products. But over time, those challenges could be outweighed by the fear of recession. Trump has suggested that he does not think about the finances of ordinary Americans when negotiating with Iran. But it is not just his own citizens who have a stake in the standoff being resolved: in increasingly fragile energy markets, stringing talks out for even a few more weeks could be catastrophic.

In 2019, my scientific research was nearly brought to an early end when my team and I published the bombastic statement that natural forest restoration was the “best climate change solution” available in a paper for the peer-reviewed journal Science. I remember a colleague from the World Wildlife Fund advising me that this message represented career suicide. He argued that people would be furious because reducing greenhouse gas emissions was the most urgent priority. The revival of nature might help with 30% of our carbon drawdown needs, but you cannot stop rising temperatures without cutting emissions. I agreed both then and now. However, I explained that when we referred to the “best” solution, we didn’t simply mean the one with the largest impact in terms of C02; we meant the best option for improving the livelihoods and wellbeing of people, too. And that, as we shall see, plays a crucial role in magnifying the beneficial effect. Many people believe the scale of the climate challenge calls for immense technological innovation, geoengineering, or the transformation of our economy. But with these solutions there are often painful trade-offs. Almost every technological or geoengineering fix you can imagine comes at the expense of something else. Stratospheric aerosol injection is one example. Creating clouds of reflective particles could block the sun and cool the land below. But alterations in sunlight and rainfall patterns could disrupt the growth of the crops we depend on for food. Similarly, direct air carbon capture has incredible potential to remove C02, but the huge financial and energy costs currently stand in the way of deploying it at the scale we need. There is one set of solutions, however, that present no trade-off at all when they are done right. The restoration of natural habitats like forests is an exception in our climate toolkit because it draws on the same network of connections that allowed life to flourish in the first place. The resilience of the natural world comes from ancient, underappreciated forces known as feedback loops. A positive feedback loop occurs when the outcome of a process has an effect that amplifies the process itself. You can see these patterns all the time in different aspects of life: for example whenever your anxiety about sleeping makes it harder to drift off. Around 3.8bn to 4.2bn years ago, feedback loops allowed life to spread on an otherwise toxic and uninhabitable planet: Earth. As life gained a foothold, it began to transform the environment, making it hospitable to more life. Species emerged that generated opportunities for even more species. This self-reinforcing process created the Eden that allowed our own species to thrive, as well as providing every ounce of food, oxygen, timber, medicine and fuel we have ever needed. But as we are all aware, the success of our species has initiated new feedback loops. The exploitation of natural resources by human beings has allowed population growth that has driven even more exploitation, which has warmed the planet, causing carbon to be released from the soil, driving more warming. As forests dry out, they are able to store less moisture, which causes more drying. Many loops such as this are now in motion, threatening to tip our planet into an entirely new state. double quotation mark If we can work with nature’s feedback loops rather than distorting them, we can reap the benefits of their self-sustaining momentum But just as feedback loops can cause damage, they can be harnessed as a pathway to recovery. They are not objectively good or bad: they are simply agents of change. If we can work with nature’s feedback loops rather than distorting them, we can reap the benefits of their self-sustaining momentum. In Argentina’s Iberá national park, you can see a stunning example of runaway revival. After decades of degradation, the reintroduction of jaguars has reduced bloated herds of grazing herbivores, allowing wetland plants to recover. The plants’ roots trap moisture in the soil, and their branches provide a habitat for species that make this one of the most spectacular wetlands – and carbon sinks – on the planet. After just a few years, caimans now bask on the banks, macaws flash scarlet across the sky and giant otters patrol the waterways. Of course, nature-based solutions are not always so successful. Companies have created vast carbon farms via monocultural tree planting, destroying native species in the process. The drying of peatlands to reduce methane production leads to the release of huge amounts of CO2. Nature’s power lies in its complexity, so attempting to simplify or reengineer the system often backfires. The risks and trade-offs tend to disappear, though, when you get one vital part of the equation right. Time and again, when the revival of local biodiversity improves the livelihoods and wellbeing of local people, change becomes truly sustainable. Whenever people are intrinsically motivated to protect the environment around them, they become an integrated part of a natural feedback loop that can quickly gather momentum. In the Iberá wetlands example, ecotourism became the engine of a new “restoration economy” employing rangers, chefs, hosts, wildlife trackers and guides. There are hundreds of such examples around the world: in Saseri, northern India, strategic soil management and tree restoration is trapping water to improve the yields of more than 1,200 farmers. A thousand kilometres to the south-west, in Gujarat, Indigenous women are restoring mangroves to protect 12 coastal villages from erosion while simultaneously improving the productivity of fisheries, crops and livestock. What these and countless other projects illustrate is that we do not need remarkable innovation or great sacrifice to move things forward. We just need to allow a tiny fraction of our collective attention and wealth (perhaps less than 1% of global GDP) to flow towards these rural land stewards, supporting their ongoing efforts. Cumulatively, they result in hundreds of millions of tons of C02 captured – but that is only the beginning of their potential impact. The more degraded nature becomes, the more desperately we need it. When nature starts to bounce back, it doesn’t only provide livelihoods, food security and carbon storage; it revives the hope, joy and inspiration that our species so desperately needs at this critical moment in time. Though they might seem beside the point, these emotional reactions are the lifeblood of nature restoration, with the potential to generate their own feedback loops, far into the future. Prof Thomas Crowther is an ecologist and author of Nature’s Echo (Torva). He is Founder of Restor.eco, a non-profit platform for nature restoration sites Further reading Just Earth: How a Fairer World Will Save the Planet by Tony Juniper (Bloomsbury, £10.99) A Climate of Truth by Mike Berners-Lee (Cambridge University Press, £14.99) Wilding by Isabella Tree (Picador, £10.99)

The warnings from aid groups and healthcare workers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have been stark, their calls for coordinated international action impassioned. As the country reels from the return of the Ebola virus, there is growing concern that its fragile healthcare system will struggle to cope with an outbreak that experts say goes well beyond the number of confirmed cases. “The speed at which this Ebola outbreak is spreading is deeply worrying,” said Rose Tchwenko, the DRC country director at the NGO Mercy Corps. “The risk of wider spread is real, and more regional and global support is urgently needed.” Hama Amado, a field coordinator in the city of Bunia for the Alima aid group, said the virus was gaining momentum and spreading in many areas. “Everyone must mobilise,” he told Associated Press on Thursday. “We are still far from saying that the situation is under control.” It has been a week since the DRC reported its 17th outbreak of Ebola, a viral disease with a mortality rate of between 25% and 90% that is spread through body fluids or contaminated materials and causes organ damage, blood vessel impairment and sometimes severe internal and external bleeding. View image in fullscreen An Ebola treatment centre in Rwampara that a crowd set on fire on Thursday after authorities refused to hand over a victim’s body. Photograph: Gradel Muyisa Mumbere/Reuters Nearly 750 suspected cases and 177 suspected deaths have been recorded since the first known victim died in Bunia, the capital of Ituri province in north-western DRC, on 24 April. Mourners touched him during a funeral in the nearby town of Mongbwalu, contributing to the spread of the virus. Hospitals and other healthcare facilities have quickly become overwhelmed. Trish Newport, an emergency programme manager at Médecins Sans Frontières, said a team had identified suspected cases over the weekend at Bunia’s Salama hospital but found no available isolation ward in the area. “Every health facility they called said: ‘We’re full of suspect cases. We don’t have any space,’” she said on social media. “This gives you a vision of how crazy it is right now.” Several factors are impeding the aid response, including the strain of the virus, for which there is no approved treatment or vaccine; the remote and conflict-scarred location of the outbreak; and local funeral customs which are at odds with strict disease-control practice. All this is set against the backdrop of big shortfalls in aid budgets, driven largely by the Trump administration’s cuts to foreign aid. View image in fullscreen Volunteers carry disinfectant containers and sanitation equipment outside a hospital in Mongbwalu. Photograph: Michel Lunanga/Getty Images According to a study by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) this year, more than half of health facilities surveyed in North and South Kivu provinces – where cases have also been reported – were damaged or destroyed, and nearly half had reported significant staff departures since January 2025 owing to conflict and insecurity. Two incidents this week laid bare some of the aggravating factors. On Tuesday, at least 17 people were killed in an attack by the Allied Democratic Forces, a militant group operating in eastern DRC and parts of Uganda, on several villages near the town of Mambasa, in Ituri. “We are facing a double war: one of weapons and another of the disease outbreak,” said Zawadi Jeanne, a woman from the town who lost her brother and uncle in an ADF attack last month. On Thursday, a crowd set fire to a treatment centre in Rwampara, near Bunia, after authorities refused to give them the body of a victim they wanted to bury themselves. The burial of bodies, which can be highly contagious, is handled by authorities for containment of the disease, but some families prefer traditional burials, which involve washing and touching the body. In previous outbreaks this has proven to be a key driver of the disease’s spread. View image in fullscreen Medical staff wearing protective equipment spray disinfectant on a trailer used to transport a patient who died at the hospital in Rwampara. Photograph: Seros Muyisa/AFP/Getty Images Batakura Zamundu Mugeni, a customary chief who was at the scene in Rwampara, told Agence France-Presse that authorities were working with health officials to track down any patients who may have fled, as well as contact cases. He blamed the unrest on “young people who do not grasp the reality of the disease”. On Friday, the province banned funeral wakes and said burials must be conducted only by specialised teams. It also prohibited the transport of dead bodies by non-medical vehicles and limited public gatherings to a maximum of 50 people. Instructions to avoid physical contact more generally are hampered by a strong culture of expressing affection through touch. “We live in a society where shaking hands is on the menu every day,” said Jackson Lubula, who lives in Bunia. “With this disease, anything is possible. A small mistake can cost you dearly, so I decided to wash my hands with soap every time after each greeting.” View image in fullscreen The disease spreads via the bodily fluids of infected people. Photograph: Michel Lunanga/Getty Images Reports from across the affected areas add to the impression that the virus has been spreading unnoticed. A rapid needs assessment by ActionAid in the Bunia, Nizi and Nyankunde areas found nearly a third of schools had registered at least one suspected Ebola case or close contact. On Saturday, the Red Cross said three of its volunteers who died this month were believed to have contracted the virus as long ago as 27 March while carrying out dead body management as part of an unrelated humanitarian mission. People in Rwampara said the disease struck suddenly, and that early symptoms were mistaken for illnesses such as malaria. Botwine Swanze, whose son died, told a reporter for Associated Press: “He told me his heart was hurting. Then he started crying because of the pain. Then he started bleeding and vomiting a lot.” Dr Núria Carrera Graño, a clinician with ICRC who has provided services in two previous Ebola outbreaks, described the situation in the DRC as a humanitarian, political and security crisis resulting from cumulative and unfortunate events. View image in fullscreen Red Cross workers in Bunia go through a disinfection process after handling the body of an Ebola victim. Photograph: Gradel Muyisa Mumbere/Reuters She said responders should learn from past outbreaks about the importance of international cooperation and coordination. “We don’t have time to lose,” she said. To control the outbreak, the DRC government is working with medics including those who have experience in handling the disease. Dr Richard Kojan, an intensive care clinician with Alima who has provided services in several Ebola outbreaks, said there were many similarities between them, such as late discovery, insufficient resources to respond, and the lack of a vaccine at the outset. “The outbreak is out of control,” he said from Kinshasa, the DRC’s capital, this week. In the absence of a vaccine and approved treatment for the Bundibugyo strain of the virus, Kojan said, medics were working to optimise the standard of intensive care for patients and put in place surveillance and contact tracing for suspected cases. “If they are admitted to the treatment centre early, the viral load will be low in their samples, and then, with optimised care, they will have a high probability of surviving,” he said. View image in fullscreen A portable isolation unit. Photograph: Jérôme Delay/AP The Alima team is also deploying a portable treatment unit called Cube, a transparent plastic structure that allows interaction between patients and their relatives and medics without the need to wear personal protective equipment. Kojan developed the concept after his experience with Ebola in the 2014-16 outbreak. As the virus spreads, increasing numbers of people in Bunia are discovering friends and relatives have fallen victim, fuelling their anxiety. “The mere thought of the name ‘Ebola’ scares me,” said Jeanne, who has a nephew in a health facility in Rwampara. But she remains optimistic. “God is the one who knows what’s ahead,” she said. “I tell myself that the disease will spread but not to an alarming level. We can just hope for the best.”

The Trump administration has cranked up the pressure on Cuba after the Justice Department unsealed murder and conspiracy charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, tied to the 1996 shootdown of an aircraft that killed three Americans and one Cuban exile. The indictment… The UAE is accelerating construction of a second west-east oil pipeline to Fujairah as Abu Dhabi, free from OPEC, looks to expand exports and reduce dependence on Hormuz. The new pipeline is expected to double ADNOC’s bypass export capacity through Fujairah by next year, adding to the existing Habshan-Fujairah line that can already move roughly 1.8 million barrels per day outside Hormuz. The biggest (and only, really) takeaway from the Trump-Xi meeting is that, as we mentioned last week and the week prior, this is all about Taiwan. All eyes are now on the $14-billion Taiwan arms package that Trump suddenly appears willing to drag his feet on, raising immediate questions about how far Washington is prepared to bend. Trump’s refusal to immediately approve the already Congress-cleared package, combined with his repeated emphasis on having an “amazing” meeting with Xi, is creating growing uncertainty inside Taipei about whether Taiwan is going to be on the losing end of this chess game. Xi reportedly warned Trump directly that Taiwan remained the most dangerous issue in U.S.-China relations and could trigger “clashes and even conflicts” if mishandled. Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict The biggest (and only, really) takeaway from the Trump-Xi meeting is that, as we mentioned last week and the week prior, this is all about Taiwan. All eyes are now on the $14-billion Taiwan arms package that Trump suddenly appears willing to drag his feet on, raising immediate questions about how far Washington is prepared to bend. Trump’s refusal to immediately approve the already Congress-cleared package, combined with his repeated emphasis on having an “amazing” meeting with Xi, is creating growing uncertainty inside Taipei about whether Taiwan is going to be on the losing end of this chess game. Xi reportedly warned Trump directly that Taiwan remained the most dangerous issue in U.S.-China relations and could trigger “clashes and even conflicts” if mishandled. The UAE is accelerating construction of a second west-east oil pipeline to Fujairah as Abu Dhabi, free from OPEC, looks to expand exports and reduce dependence on Hormuz. The new pipeline is expected to double ADNOC’s bypass export capacity through Fujairah by next year, adding to the existing Habshan-Fujairah line that can already move roughly 1.8 million barrels per day outside Hormuz. The Trump administration has cranked up the pressure on Cuba after the Justice Department unsealed murder and conspiracy charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, tied to the 1996 shootdown of an aircraft that killed three Americans and one Cuban exile. The indictment adds to sanctions, energy restrictions, and legal escalation. Washington is no longer trying to manage Cuba. It’s increasingly treating the island the same way it now approaches Venezuela: as a system that must be broken apart economically, politically, and institutionally. Rubio has now openly centered much of the administration’s messaging around GAESA, the military-run conglomerate that controls major sections of Cuba’s economy, including hotels, remittance businesses, banking, ports, fuel distribution, and retail operations. Rubio described GAESA as a “state within the state” that hoards wealth for a small elite. He’s trying to start a revolution. With Rubio’s latest messaging, it’s clear that Washington is gearing up to directly target the military-commercial structure that underpins the Cuban state. Cuba, meanwhile, continues blaming the economic collapse on U.S. sanctions, rejecting claims about GAESA’s scale and accusing Washington of fabricating this ruse to justify a move on the island. Weeks of anti-government protests have paralyzed Bolivia, only six months into the presidential term for Rodrigo Paz, who came to power promising aggressive economic reforms and fuel market liberalization to stabilize inflation and chronic shortages. However, the removal of long-standing fuel subsidies instead triggered worsening shortages, surging public anger, and allegations that imported fuel supplies had been adulterated with low-quality gasoline, damaging vehicles and transport systems. The protests have now spread far beyond fuel prices and to a direct challenge to the government. Unions, transport groups, and opposition figures are demanding Paz’s resignation, while former president Morales is attempting to score some political points and reinsert himself in the chaos. Washington has now described the unrest as an “ongoing coup d’état,” while Colombia’s leftist government openly sided with protesters, triggering a diplomatic confrontation between La Paz and Bogotá. Major refineries across central Russia have been forced to halt or cut output after recent Ukrainian drone strikes, with affected plants representing roughly a quarter of Russia’s total refining capacity and more than 30% of its gasoline output. The latest reported strike on Syzran pushes that pressure deeper into Russia, more than 800 kilometers from Ukraine’s border. Russia is trying to turn Ukraine’s refinery campaign into a NATO-border crisis in the meantime, with Russian intelligence alleging that Ukraine is planning to launch drones from Latvia, prompting direct threats from Moscow. This, in turn, adds to the existential pressure for NATO, which is fast losing American support… Washington is now moving from vague rhetoric about “burden sharing” to actual force reductions inside NATO’s military structure. The US is expected to formally lower the number of troops it commits to NATO readiness plans after already announcing surprise redeployments out of Germany and suspending a planned rotational deployment to Poland. European governments have been expecting this shift for months, but it's happening right as the Ukraine war pushes NATO’s eastern flank into a far more unstable phase and as Russia threatens the Baltics. NATO officials are publicly calling the move routine, but privately, Europe has received the message: Washington wants allies to carry more of the burden of defense on the continent while the U.S. reallocates military capabilities toward Asia, for one. The post-Maduro scramble inside Caracas revolves around who controls Venezuela’s oil fields, mining assets, infrastructure rebuild, and future privatizations. The White House is publicly presenting a new U.S.-Venezuela minerals agreement as part of economic reconstruction and critical minerals cooperation; however, the reality unfolding inside Caracas already looks like a full-scale geopolitical and commercial repositioning of the country. The Guardian describes the JW Marriott in Caracas as the main deal-making HQ, abuzz with U.S. diplomats, intelligence personnel, military security teams, energy executives, and foreign dealmakers. It’s all being made up as we go along, so follow the money to the story. Across the city, investors and billionaires are reportedly flooding luxury hotels looking for access to mining projects, privatizations, debt restructuring opportunities, and energy infrastructure contracts. Washington has issued new licenses tied specifically to Venezuela’s mineral sector, and debt overhaul discussions are accelerating as foreign investors get ready for a big reopening of Venezuelan assets and capital markets. The discussions now go far beyond oil and into notions that Venezuela could be a strategic supply-chain project involving critical minerals, electricity infrastructure, and logistics corridors. The current situation in Venezuela is that the government is cooperating with Washington on the big-ticket items (oil and debt restructuring), but domestically, still playing the nationalist card for legitimacy and cover. Delcy Rodríguez’s administration is opening the country to U.S.-linked investment in oil, mining, infrastructure and debt restructuring, while still publicly blaming Washington for much of Venezuela’s economic collapse. That’s a typical unspoken agreement or a transactional power-sharing type of deal. This week, Venezuelan Economy Minister Ramón Lobo said the country’s inability to service its foreign debt stemmed from “illegal U.S. sanctions”. Venezuela is now working more closely with the U.S. Treasury on debt restructuring and financial reintegration, while Washington has issued new licenses tied to Venezuela’s critical minerals sector. Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions Reports on Thursday claimed that ExxonMobil is in advanced discussions to acquire rights to operate multiple Venezuelan oil fields, nearly 20 years after Chávez-era nationalizations forced it out. Just months ago, Exxon executives publicly described Venezuela as “uninvestable” without sweeping legal protections, yet Washington has since accelerated sanctions relief, issued broader operating licenses, and backed new hydrocarbons reforms designed explicitly to attract foreign capital. The latest federal oil and gas lease auction in New Mexico pulled in a record ~$4 billion in bids as major producers try to lock in high-quality US shale. The auction focused heavily on acreage in the Permian Basin. The auction suggests that US shale will remain strategically important for global oil markets well into the next decade. Top-tier drilling inventory has now become even more valuable, with consolidation reducing the amount of premium undeveloped acreage still available across the Permian. NextEra Energy’s $66.8 billion all-stock acquisition of Dominion Energy demonstrates how the U.S. power sector is reorganizing itself around AI-driven electricity demand growth. The deal gives NextEra direct exposure to Northern Virginia’s “data center alley,” the world’s largest concentration of hyperscale data center infrastructure, whi

A friend of mine was recently left in tears after filling up the car she relies on to drive to work. Thanks to the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, prices at the pumps have soared. She wasn’t sure how her family was going to make it to the next paycheck. It is a personal story and a distressing one, but the big picture is truly obscene. Fossil fuel companies are raking in monstrous, unearned war profits taken from the pockets of people like you, me, my friend, and any of us who fills up a vehicle or pays an energy bill. These, too, are the very companies and countries that have worked so hard to delay climate action and keep us all hooked on oil and gas. In short, we are paying for big oil’s outrageous profits while it cooks the planet – and our way of life along with it. The scale of the war-profits bonanza is hard to comprehend, so I’ll try to illuminate it (I promise there’s a silver lining). First, this week’s top stories. Essential reads In focus View image in fullscreen Drivers are facing rising fuel costs as conflict in Iran sends oil prices soaring. Photograph: Mike Kemp/In Pictures/Getty $30m an hour: that’s the pure, unearned profits banked by the world’s top 100 oil and gas companies in the first month of the conflict in Iran, purely due to the spike in the oil price. I revealed this exclusive analysis, commissioned by the Guardian, in April – while it was based on the best data in the industry, it was an estimate. Now the first numbers are in, and that $30m may have been a major underestimate. Shell’s profit for the first three months of 2026 more than doubled to $6.9bn, as did BP’s, to $3.2bn. TotalEnergies profits also surged by more than 50%, up to $5.8bn. Even in the Gulf itself, where the flow of oil through the strait of Hormuz has been heavily restricted, some companies have still flourished. Aramco, the state oil company of habitual climate obstructers Saudi Arabia, saw its profits soar by 26% to $33.6bn in the first quarter. Those four companies alone, benefiting not just from the oil price hike but also bumper oil-trading profits, made $23m an hour for the whole of January, February and March. And the Iran conflict only started on 28 February. To get some idea of the scale of this, imagine I gave you $6,200. What would you do? Pay off a loan? Book a fancy holiday? A second later, I give you another $6,200; then again, for hours, weeks and months. That is the rate of profit of just those four companies. There is plenty more to come for the industry. Oil and gas supplies will take months to return to prewar levels, and reserves are getting dangerously low. Even if the oil price remains at today’s level of about $100 a barrel, those 100 companies will make $234bn by the end of the year. Remember, the companies, and petrostates such as Russia, have done no extra work for this, just ridden a soaring oil price. Also remember, you are paying for this. Where I live in the UK, household energy bills are about to jump by £209 ($280) a year for the average home. The profits are extreme, but not new: big oil and gas has been wildly profitable for decades. It has made an average $1tn a year in pure profit for about 50 years. The fossil fuel sector also benefits from explicit subsidies that totalled $1.3tn in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund. These riches have funded the lobbying and campaigns that block climate action and have done so for years, long after the science became crystal clear. As an example of the consequences, the UK’s official climate advisers said on Tuesday that all care homes and hospitals will need air conditioning within the coming 10 years, to stop the heat killing people. Talk of a windfall tax in the European Union – designed to “send a clear message that those who profit from the consequences of war must do their part to ease the burden on the general public” – has faded. The most incisive big-picture take I have seen was from climate analyst and writer Ketan Joshi, who recently wrote: “We cannot survive in this system. Hooking humanity on a fuel that becomes more profitable for companies when there is more bloodshed and conflict is a guaranteed recipe for more suffering in every way imaginable.” But here’s that silver lining I promised: these peak profits contain the seeds of their own downfall. Sky-high fossil fuel prices are pushing people, companies and nations to supercharge their rush towards green power for the simple reason that it is now cheaper and more reliable. Solar power does not need to transit through the strait of Hormuz, as Bill McKibben has observed. The numbers on the surge in renewable energy deployment, already exponential, are not yet in, but they will almost certainly be huge. Green funds are already attracting billions of dollars in new investments and one consultancy estimates that an oil price of $100 a barrel will drive $4tn of extra green investment by 2030. Big oil remains a formidable political force but, on the ground, people are already voting with their feet. Sales of new electric cars in the UK leapt by 59% in April, for example. The pain and anger of today’s energy crisis may yet become a critical turning point in confronting the climate crisis. Read more: Trump’s Iran war may stymie climate gains with boost to big oil Outrage as oil giants profit billions from Iran war – The Latest podcast As household bills soar, is it time for a ‘working-class climate agenda’?