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From 6h ago 13.05 CEST Russia's threats against the Baltics 'completely unacceptable and 'threat against our entire union', EU's von der Leyen says And in the last few minutes, the European Commission’s president Ursula von der Leyen issued a strong statement along the similar lines. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. Photograph: Ronald Wittek/EPA In a post on X, she said: “Russia’s public threats against our Baltic States are completely unacceptable. Let there be no doubt: a threat against one Member State is a threat against our entire Union. Russia and Belarus bear direct responsibility for drones endangering the lives and security of people on our Eastern flank. Europe will respond with unity and strength. We will continue reinforcing the security of our Eastern flank with strong collective defence and preparedness at every level.” Share Updated at 13.10 CEST 4h ago 15.53 CEST Jon Henley Europe correspondent Earlier today, Lithuania’s president and prime minister were rushed to underground bunkers and residents of the capital, Vilnius, urged to take shelter during a warning issued after a drone violated the country’s airspace. View image in fullscreen A person holding a mobile phone that displays a warning of a possible air raid in Vilnius. Photograph: Andrei Shauliuha/AFP/Getty Images Air and train traffic in and around the city was suspended after the mobile phone “take shelter” alert, the first issued in an EU and Nato country since the start of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. You can read our full report on today’s air alert in Lithuania here: Lithuanian leaders rushed to bunkers as drone violates country’s airspace Read more Share Updated at 16.01 CEST 4h ago 15.47 CEST Finns suspected of Russian sanctions violation over truck exports Three Finnish citizens are suspected of exporting trucks and trailers worth $20 million to neighbouring Russia in violation of sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine, Finnish Customs said Wednesday. A preliminary investigation conducted by the customs agency found that a Finnish company had transported 135 trucks and 29 trailers worth 17.5 million euros ($20.3 million) to Russia during 2022-2023, saying the vehicles were being exported to Kazakhstan or Turkey. However, the customs agency found that the vehicles were customs cleared into Russia by a company importing and reselling trucks in the country. The customs agency has not identified the company by name, but public broadcaster Yle said it was Idan liikennevalitys IL Oy. “For the first time in a criminal investigation involving sanctions violations, Finnish Customs has requested that the value of the goods exported to Russia be confiscated for security,” said Petteri Nevalainen, the agency’s economic crime investigations chief. The company’s owner and two employees are suspected of aggravated regulation offences, and one of them has been held in pretrial detention since the beginning of the investigation in March. Prosecutors are to decide whether to press charges in the coming weeks. Share 4h ago 15.45 CEST Italy condemns 'unacceptable' treatment of Gaza flotilla activists by Israel Meanwhile, Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni slammed as “unacceptable” the treatment of Gaza flotilla activists detained by Israel, after an Israeli minister posted a video of them bound and forced to kneel, AFP reported. View image in fullscreen Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni. Photograph: Angelo Carconi/EPA “It is intolerable that these protesters, among whom there are many Italian citizens, are subjected to this treatment, which violates human dignity,” Meloni said in a statement, referring to the video posted by far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. Share 4h ago 15.12 CEST French lawmakers back Macron choice to run Bank of France Over in France, French lawmakers narrowly approved President Emmanuel Macron’s former chief of staff to govern the central bank, with Emmanuel Moulin winning just enough votes to secure the job, AFP reported. View image in fullscreen Secretary general of the French Presidency Emmanuel Moulin arrives for his hearing before the Finance Committee at the National Assembly in Paris. Photograph: Abdullah Firas/ABACA/Shutterstock Macron critics say the centrist head of state is seeking to install allies in top positions to shield key government institutions before his five-year term ends next year. Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigration party is gearing up for what it considers its strongest opportunity yet to take power in the 2027 presidential election. Moulin, Macron’s choice for the position, had faced questions about his ability to act independently. Lawmakers in the lower house voted overwhelmingly against him, but enough Senators backed his appointment for it to be approved. An influential policymaker, Moulin, 57, has held a series of top posts in finance and the presidency, AFP noted. He served as secretary general of the Élysée Palace for a year and was before that chief of staff to centrist Gabriel Attal during his brief stint as prime minister in 2024. He served as director general of the French Treasury between 2020 and 2024, overseeing economic policy and public debt. Share Updated at 15.12 CEST 5h ago 14.43 CEST China 'eaten much of German industry's lunch,' report warns as it urges Berlin to stop admiring Beijing Lisa O’Carroll In other news, Germany must stop admiring China’s success in the EU or it will sleepwalk into the kind of deindustrialisation the US experienced 25 years ago, a leading Brussels thinktank has said. View image in fullscreen What happened in the US 25 years ago should be a ‘warning shot for Germany’s car and machine-building cities like Wolfsburg’, the home of Volkswagen. Photograph: Krisztian Bocsi/Getty Images With China’s surplus with Germany having doubled between 2024 and 2025 from $12bn (£9bn) to $25bn, creating a $94bn trade imbalance, the Centre for European Reform (CER) said Europe’s largest economy risked a repeat of what happened in the US in 2001 when a sudden surge in imports permanently hollowed out towns in the American midwest. “China Shock 1.0” not only led to losses of up to 2.5m jobs but was also marked by a rise in suicides, divorce and drug use in US towns that lost industries to the Chinese, according to the CER report. That fraying of the US social fabric, it said, was “an eerie warning shot for Germany’s car and machine-building cities like Wolfsburg and Stuttgart”, a reference to the homes of Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, two brands emblematic of German engineering and design success. “Germany remains hesitant, even as China has already eaten much of German industry’s lunch and is preparing to start on dinner,” said the CER. Entitled “China Shock 2.0: the cost of Germany’s complacency”, the thinktank report concluded: “Berlin cannot keep admiring the problem,” adding that the risk for Berlin was acute, yet the German political leaders had “struggled to see the problem clearly”. Germany urged to stop admiring Beijing and wake up to ‘China Shock 2.0’ Read more Share 5h ago 14.06 CEST Ukraine involved in 'very active' talks with UK over decision to relax sanctions on Russian crude Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office says it is seeking clarification from Downing Street on the UK’s decision to lift sanctions on some Russian oil, amid accusations from the Conservatives that Keir Starmer is helping the Kremlin make money. View image in fullscreen Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attends the 8th European Political Community (EPC) summit in Yerevan earlier this month. Photograph: Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images Ukraine’s president has not yet commented on the decision to issue a new licence for imports of diesel and jet fuel made from sanctioned Russian oil. The UK has also permitted the maritime transport of Russian liquefied natural gas. UK relaxes strict sanctions on Russian crude as oil costs soar Read more Zelenskyy has previously urged western partners to maintain a tough sanctions regime against Russian oil exports, pointing out that Moscow uses cash from hydrocarbon sales to fund its war against Ukraine. In recent months Kyiv has intensified long-range strikes against Russia’s oil infrastructure, hitting ports on the Baltic and Black Sea, as well as targets in the Urals, more than 1500kms from the frontline. Zelenskyy has dubbed these remote attacks “long-range sanctions”. “There is currently very active communication between our diplomats and the Office [of the President] and the British side to clarify the details,” an aide to Zelenskyy said on Wednesday. Share 6h ago 13.41 CEST 'Europe's security is indivisible,' Lithuania's foreign minister says Lithuania’s foreign minister Kęstutis Budrys responded to von der Leyen’s statement, thanking her for support for the region. “Thank you, @vonderleyen, for your strong message of solidarity. Europe’s security is indivisible. EU’s strength lies in its unity & our adversaries know that. Together we are strong and resilient.” Share 6h ago 13.38 CEST US plans to shrink forces available to Nato during crises, Reuters says Just as the EU’s von der Leyen (13:05) and Poland’s Tusk (13:03) issue their stark warnings about the security situation in the region, the Trump administration is planning to tell Nato allies this week that it will shrink the pool of military capabilities that the US would have available to assist the alliance’s European nations in a major crisis, Reuters reported quoting three sources familiar with the matter said. Under a framework known as the Nato Force Model, the alliance’s member countries identify a pool of available forces that could be activated during a conflict or any other major crisis, such as a military attack on a Nato member, Reuters said. While the precise composition of those wartime forces is a closely guarded secret, the Pentagon has decided to sign

Manchesterism is “the end of neoliberalism”. That was the claim made by Andy Burnham in his campaign launch video this week – a film which made an audacious offer not just to his byelection constituents in Makerfield, but how he intended to change national politics and the economy. But the 2026 doctrine of Manchesterism is very different to its 19th-century namesake, when it was a byword for free trade. Now in the hands of the mayor of Greater Manchester, it means the national rollout of what he has achieved in the city – essential assets brought into greater public control such as the bus network, a closer partnership between the state and business to spread the proceeds of wealth, and a huge expansion of devolution. However, the task of turning Manchesterism into a practical offer in government – potentially in a matter of weeks – is immense. It is a shoestring operation, with a considerable number of players vying for influence. There is a determination among those backing Burnham to be bold and authentic, but it runs alongside a deep fear about spooking an already jittery bond market and causing the cost of borrowing to soar, as well as anything that might risk handing the seat to Reform UK. Those constraints were evident in Burnham’s statement at the weekend that he will stick to Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules – meaning any further expansion of public spending will have to be paid for with tax increases. Investors had been fretting about an unfunded spending splurge in the event of a Burnham leadership, since he called for Labour to be less “in hock,” to the bond markets. The shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, has begun claiming the government is already paying a “Burnham penalty” in higher borrowing costs. Burnham, according to his close adviser Neal Lawson, who founded the thinktank Compass, has developed his prognosis entirely through his work in Manchester, although the roots come from the much-praised civic leadership of Howard Bernstein, the chief executive of Manchester city council during the New Labour years. “What is interesting about Andy is that he does not get his theory of change from books,” Lawson said. “He’s what Gramsci would call an organic intellectual, because it’s literally the practice of running Manchester.” The intellectual work of Manchesterism that Burnham intends to make his framework for government has been taking place over many months – with different influences. From the left is Common Wealth’s Mathew Lawrence and the economist Alex Williams, whose ideas will be fleshed out in an essay called The Productive State, although in practice the ideas are significantly more radical than what Burnham knows he can achieve in the short-term in government, and without his own electoral mandate. It argues that privatisation is at the root of Britain’s problems, that essential services are run entirely for profit and that the welfare state has ballooned because ordinary people need state help just to afford the essentials. Lawrence’s work argues that the state should not just regulate, but directly own and operate in essential sectors. It should provide services where profit is not the main incentive – seen in practice by Manchester’s Bee Network buses, where the city has control over the routes and the price. But Burnham himself has never directly said he intends to nationalise those essential services such as energy and water, but rather that they should be brought into “public control” with more government involvement in the way they are run and paid for. Those close to the mayor say the pragmatic version of Manchesterism shows a framework for a more productive relationship between the state and business – Burnham has been widely known as a business-friendly mayor. “You can be pro-business but want more of the proceeds of growth recycled back into our communities,” he has said. The small team behind Burnham face an extraordinary challenge to win a tight byelection and potentially prepare for power – and are likely to face tough questions about how that framework can be applied in government via specific policy levers, and especially how to do so in such fiscally constrained circumstances. Allies of Burnham say the first test of their theories on public ownership will be Thames Water, the stricken utility for which the government is trying to find a new buyer. Many on the left of Labour want ministers to abandon attempts to negotiate a sale, and allow Thames to collapse into special administration, effectively putting the government in the driving seat. Some advocate for public control of water companies rather than full nationalisation. This could involve setting up an independent company, perhaps with worker representation on the board, which would have some kind of accountability to government. They cite Berlin as one example of this, where the local water company was brought back into municipal control in 2012. Berlin water company’s board is half elected by workers, and half appointed by the city council. Some on the right of Labour fear Lawrence’s approach, set out in a long article in the New Statesman last week, is too theoretical and lacks a retail offer. The Labour Growth Group, which has discussed its recent publication An Honest Day with Burnham’s team, has called for more tangible, immediate action on the cost of living and harder messaging on extractive capitalism that rewards grifting. The other key influence – although less likely to play a major part in the byelection – has been Lawson’s thinktank Compass; primarily its work on the need for constitutional reform, especially the electoral system. However, Burnham has indicated he does not expect this to be possible before the next election. As well as Lawrence and Lawson, Makerfield’s outgoing MP, Josh Simons, is likely to be influential in the development of Burnham’s agenda – although his past at the Starmerite operation Labour Together and the fallout from the scandal over the investigation of journalists that led to him resigning from the government in February will mean an uneasy alliance with some of those on the left who have been longtime backers of Burnham. Simons, and his wife, Leah, who is a Harvard-trained economist, grilled Burnham for two hours at their home in Makerfield on his economic agenda before Simons finally decided he would give up his seat to allow the mayor to run again for parliament. But Simons said on Sunday he too was a believer in Burnham’s diagnosis about the selling off of national assets. “One of the things he’s really, really committed to is that the energy, water, social housing, those things that are the basics of our lives that we all depend on have gotten so expensive … we’ve privatised a lot of them and often the bills that we pay go to the shareholders of some private equity fund,” he said. “It is for Andy to say whether he’s going to disaggregate neoliberalism but, you know, I don’t think he would entirely reject that … I basically agree that over the last 40 years the basic way that we’ve run our economy is shafting my constituents.”

صعد مؤشر الأسهم السعودية الموازية «نمو»، اليوم، بمقدار 19.22 نقطة، ليصل إلى مستوى 22.743.13 نقطة، وبتداولات بلغت قيمتها 25 مليون ريال، وبلغت كمية الأسهم المتداولة أكثر من 3 ملايين سهم. وارتفع مؤشر الأسهم السعودية الرئيسية، اليوم، بمقدار 26.20 نقطة، ليصل إلى مستوى 10.982.30 نقطة، وبتداولات بلغت قيمتها 4.6 مليار ريال. وبلغت كمية الأسهم المتداولة -وفق النشرة الاقتصادية اليومية لوكالة الأنباء السعودية لسوق الأسهم السعودية- 245 مليون سهم، سجّلت فيها أسهم 144 شركة ارتفاعاً في قيمتها، فيما تراجعت أسهم 111 شركة. الأكثر ارتفاعاً وكانت أسهم شركات ساسكو، وتبوك الزراعية، ومجموعة صافولا، ونادك، ونسيج، الأكثر ارتفاعاً، أما أسهم شركات بوبا العربية، والموسى، وثمار، والمملكة، وميدغلف للتأمين الأكثر انخفاضاً في التعاملات، وراوحت نسب الارتفاع والانخفاض ما بين 10.00% و4.04%، فيما كانت أسهم شركات أمريكانا، وسماسكو، وأرامكو السعودية، والكيميائية، وبترو رابغ، هي الأكثر نشاطاً بالكمية، بينما كانت أسهم شركات أرامكو السعودية، والراجحي، ومعادن، وأكوا، والأهلي، هي الأكثر نشاطاً في القيمة.

Unemployment in the UK has unexpectedly risen to 5% while wage growth has slowed, according to official figures, in the first snapshot of how companies are reacting to the impact of the Iran war. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the rate of unemployment was up in the three months to March, from 4.9% in the three months to February, a rate that City economists had expected to hold steady. More up-to-date tax data showed the number of payrolled employees dropped sharply in April, falling by 100,000, after a 28,000 decline in March. The fall was much sharper than expected and the biggest monthly decline since records began in 2014, excluding during the pandemic. Vacancies also fell to their lowest level in five years, with a decline of 28,000 to 705,000 for February to April. Suren Thiru, the chief economist at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said: “These figures signal a growing distress within the UK’s labour market as soaring labour costs and the fallout from the Iran war drive more businesses to reduce recruitment and limit pay awards. “The continued fall in job vacancies is a worrying sign of the strength of the labour market as it suggests that demand for staff is deteriorating quickly amid global headwinds and the growing financial squeeze on firms.” Excluding bonuses, wage growth was 3.4% year on year in the three months to March, down from 3.6% in February. While this was what economists had been expecting, it was still the slowest growth since the three months to October 2020. After taking inflation into account, wages grew by just 0.3%. Including bonuses, wages increased by 4.1%, from a rise of 3.8% in the previous quarter. Yael Selfin, the chief economist at KPMG, said “Workers are likely to face a period of declining real pay, as headline inflation is set to outpace earnings, driven by higher energy and food prices. Unlike the 2022 energy shock, the weaker labour market is expected to limit workers’ ability to secure higher pay settlements to offset rising costs.” The Resolution Foundation, a thinktank, said the outlook for wages looked “bleak”. It said: “With the war set to push up inflation over the coming months, pay packets are set to start shrinking in real terms for the fourth time in less than two decades.” The Iran war began on 28 February, making this the first full month of official data to show how employers have responded to rising energy costs. Global oil and gas prices have risen sharply due to the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz. The ONS data also suggested that young people were bearing the brunt of cutbacks in the labour market. The unemployment rate for 18- to 24-year-olds rose to 14.7% in the three months to March, the highest level since November 2014. Separate analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies showed that only half of 16- to 24-year-olds were in payrolled employment at the end of 2025. The IFS attributed this to rising employment costs, artificial intelligence replacing some jobs, and worsening mental health among young people. The work and pensions secretary, Pat McFadden, said: “We know the conflict in the Middle East is casting a shadow on the labour market … boosting opportunity and tackling youth unemployment in every area remains our priority.” The emerging picture of how the UK economy has been faring since the start of the Middle East conflict has been mixed. Surveys have suggested consumers are fearful of rising inflation and are cutting back on discretionary spending, while businesses have reported sharp rises in input costs. However, figures from the ONS released last week showed the UK economy grew by 0.3% in March and by 0.6% over the first quarter. This unexpectedly high GDP figure caused the International Monetary Fund to increase its UK growth forecast for 2026 on Monday, from 0.8% to 1% in 2026, to reflect the UK’s “strong prewar momentum” and a robust performance in the first quarter of the year. However, the Bank of England expects unemployment to hit 5.1% by the middle of this year and then rise to between 5.5% and 5.6% by the summer of 2027, based on current estimates of how the Iran war might affect the UK economy. The ONS said on Tuesday that the more volatile monthly unemployment rate shot up from 4.6% in February to 5.5% in March, the highest level since May 2015.

As U.S. President Donald Trump landed in Beijing last Wednesday for a two-day summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, his aides would have been acutely aware that he had faced extensive criticism in the past for his cosy dealings with the Chinese leader before, especially during his first presidential term. The fact that the summit had been postponed from late March, following the escalation of the war in Iran, will have naturally raised at least one potential topic of conversation, if not two. China remains the key financier -- through oil and gas imports, and other channels -- of both Iran’s continued war against the U.S. and of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. Both conflicts have served to pressure global oil and gas prices higher in recent years, which begs the question: did Trump play nice again this time, or put the squeeze on Xi Jinping, and if he did, what did Xi ask for in return? Most in focus right now for Trump remains the impasse over the ongoing effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to a third of the world’s oil has historically flowed and up to a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG). In recent weeks, Washington has shifted from the ‘Epic Fury’ of kinetic war to the ‘Economic Fury’ of an attritional financial war based on sanctions. The problem here is that China keeps buying huge quantities of Iranian oil, as it has done for years, despite international sanctions, providing the ultimate economic lifeline for the longstanding Islamic regime in Tehran. Since the outbreak of the U.S./Israel-Iran War on 28 February, China has become Iran’s ‘buyer of last resort’, now purchasing up to 95% of all its oil exports, with oil currently accounting for over 50% of the country’s entire government budget. In February alone, Iran exported 60.7 million barrels of oil, netting Tehran an estimated US$4.27 billion, with China accounting for the vast majority of this financial injection. Most of this, in turn, is imported into supposedly ‘independent’ Chinese refineries (known as ‘teapots’), although in reality, all domestic businesses in China are directly or indirectly controlled by the State. Consequently, it is perfectly reasonable to posit -- as Washington does -- that one word from Xi to Iran about China ending all these imports unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened up immediately, would lift the blockade and end the war almost immediately. Related: Xi-Trump Summit Disappoints as Oil Bulls Regain Momentum The same argument applies to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s 10-day ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine (now into its 1,543rd+ day). Russia relies on oil and gas for roughly one-third of its total budget revenues to directly fund its war chest, with China once again being the mainstay of this demand, since the European Union and Western allies slapped embargoes on Russian energy, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. China is now Russia’s top crude oil buyer, purchasing over 100 million tonnes of Russian crude annually, which accounts for roughly 20% of all Beijing’s energy imports. Additionally, as it stands, China imports more than 52 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from Russia annually, making Moscow its leading supplier of combined pipeline and LNG. Most of this flows directly overland via the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline. And following recent meetings between Xi and Putin, the current pipeline gas baseline of 38bcm is to be boosted to 44 bcm a year. Moreover, because Western sanctions cut Russia off from the SWIFT banking system, China’s energy purchases have catalysed the build-out of a parallel financial architecture between the two countries, and similar workarounds to U.S. dollar-dependency are in place between China and Iran too. That said, Washington cannot ultimately force Beijing into using its huge leverage over Iran and Russia to end the respective wars in which they are involved. The effects of just the imposition of bigger tariffs last year by the U.S. on China prompted a significant retaliatory response in the form both of increased reciprocal tariffs on the U.S. by China and an embargo on rare-earth minerals, which are vital components in several key areas of American manufacturing. Moreover, global stock markets slumped as related supply chain issues came firmly into focus. Instead, the U.S. continues to employ a gradual strategy of strangling Chinese expansion wherever and however it can, while China continues to drive economic growth as best it can, while undermining the global power of the U.S. where possible, especially through challenging U.S. dollar dominance in the global financial system. This has resulted broadly in a relatively even playing field for negotiations between the two countries, dominated by a quid pro quo approach. And in China’s case, the thing it wants in exchange for any pressure brought by it on Iran and Russia remains Taiwan. China’s stealth approach to the accretion of power and influence in target countries – founded on the mixture of economic and political elements inherent in the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’– is also the one Xi favours for the country’s eventual ‘repatriation’ of Taiwan, as also detailed in full in my latest book. The carefully drawn-up boundaries between the U.S. and China on what either could do relating to Taiwan are based on the highly precise terms of the ‘One China’ position. This is that: the U.S. ‘recognises’ the People’s Republic of China (based in Beijing) as the sole legal government of China, but only ‘acknowledges’ the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China. That said, last February, the U.S. dropped the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence” from a fact sheet on Taiwan-U.S. ties. After this, Beijing responded: “This sends a wrong and serious signal to separatist forces advocating for Taiwan independence and is another example of the U.S. stubbornly persisting with its wrong policy of using Taiwan to contain China.” Beijing added: “We urge the US to immediately correct its mistakes [and] earnestly adhere to the One China principle.” The White House did not mention Taiwan in its official description of the meeting between Trump and Xi, while the U.S. President himself appears to be using a form of the constructive ambiguity in his dealings with Xi over the matter, as promulgated by former National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, in the 1970s, as also fully explored in my latest book. Indeed, it was Kissinger who drafted a sentence in the Shanghai Communiqué after Richard Nixon’s historic 1972 visit to China that still forms the basis of the current understanding between Washington and Beijing: “The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position.” After the most recent meeting with Xi, Trump emphasised a desire to keep the current framework intact, noting: “If you kept it the way it is, I think China’s going to be OK with that.” He also said: “[Xi] considers it to be a part of China, and that’s up to him, what he’s going to be doing.” On the other hand, this did not prevent the U.S. from striking an US$11 billion arms deal with Taiwan in December. Against this backdrop, China is putting itself in an ideal position to finally exert its influence over Iran and Russia -- in exchange for a clearer path to ‘repatriate’ Taiwan -- if Trump ultimately decides that he needs a quicker exit strategy from the Iran War. Beijing has joined Pakistan as a mediator in the conflict, with Chinese officials having been instrumental in drawing up a five-point plan in March aimed at bringing about a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. “Much of this was to show good faith to the Americans, but it also underlined to them that Beijing is now officially engaged in the process here if they are minded to, and that means they expect something more accommodating for China from Washington on the Taiwan issue,” a senior source who works closely with the European Union’s security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “The recent visit of [Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas] Araghchi to Beijing looked like a demonstration of this China mediation option to the U.S., adding to the sort of positive comments that were made on opening up the Strait [of Hormuz] by Chinese sources last week,” he added. “On the other hand, if Trump doesn’t take that route, then Iran is likely to keep digging in, and the U.S. may have to resume its costly military operations in earnest in the next few days, with all the prospects for further oil and gasoline price rises that this entails,” he concluded. By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com