تابع رؤية 2030
بذكاء سياقي

Despite lingering tension between the United States and Iran, Kazakhstan is planning to build a terminal at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas to facilitate exports. In comments made before a joint session of the Kazakh parliament in late June, Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin said no state funds would be used in developing the planned facility, which will occupy roughly 15 hectares at the Iranian port. “The project will be implemented at the expense of private investment. As far as I know, the agreement is already at the final stage: the terms of the lease have been agreed,” the state news agency Kazinform quoted Zhumangarin as telling legislators. Kazakhstan would ship goods from the western city of Aktau to the Iranian port via an existing rail link via Turkmenistan. “This gives Kazakhstan direct access to the markets of India, East Africa, the Persian Gulf countries and Southeast Asia. This is the goal of the project,” Zhumangarin said, adding that the government believes that the sanctions regime on Iran will be eased soon as part of the settlement to end the US-Iranian conflict. The Iranian arrangement is not dimming Kazakhstan’s interest in diversifying its global trade options. According to Zhumangarin, the government remains intent on pursuing the construction of a trans-Afghan railway to gain access to Pakistan’s deep-water ports. Referring to the trade disruption caused by the US-Iran conflict, while noting Bandar Abbas is in the Gulf behind the Strait of Hormuz, the deputy prime minister said: “I hope that such a situation will not be repeated in the near future, but this is a serious signal for us to take into account alternative logistics routes.” Uzbekistan is accelerating plans to forge a trans-Afghan railway, striving to open an export route to Pakistani ports, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s press service reports. Work is starting on a variety of infrastructure projects inside Uzbekistan to facilitate trade via a trans-Afghan route. Meanwhile, work is also underway on a railway connecting Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to China. Both corridors will be capable of transporting goods to Pakistani ports. Logistic centers are being developed in three cities, Tashkent, Navoi and Namangan. The government is also planning investments to turn the cities of Khanabad and Angren, as well as the Yangiyul, Akhangaran, Alat and Termez districts into transit hubs for east-west and north-south trade. The immediate focus is on digitalization of transit and warehousing procedures, including the establishment of an electronic monitoring system for storage, license plate recognition and electronic registration of vehicles. The Uzbek government is seeking to attract about $3 billion in investment to help make the improvements. If all goes according to plan, the upgraded infrastructure could increase government revenue by as much as $600 million and create as many as 50,000 jobs. Russian analysts believe the bevy of trade and energy deals signed in late June between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are laying the groundwork for construction of a trans-Caspian pipeline. An analysis published by the Russian outlet Nezavisimaya Gazeta cites comments made in April by Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov, who said a policy priority for Ashgabat is exporting natural gas to Europe. The analysis adds that US officials are working behind the scenes to assemble the needed financing for a pipeline. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have completed an exchange of land under their border delimitation and demarcation treaty, according to the Kyrgyz president’s press secretary, Askat Alagozov. The agreement involves the transfer of two erstwhile Uzbek villages -- Chongara and Tash-Tobo – to Kyrgyz jurisdiction, meaning that 2,500 local residents effectively are switching citizenships. Uzbekistan received an equivalent amount of territory. “Registration procedures will now be carried out in these villages, after which the residents will be granted citizenship of the Kyrgyz Republic,” Alagozov stated. Many of the residents impacted by the territorial exchange are ethnic Kyrgyz. The trade is aimed at shortening transit times between the southern Kyrgyz cities of Aidarken and Batken. Tajikistan and China intend to deepen cooperation on water conservation and glacier preservation measures, the Chinese Communist Party’s official organ, the People’s Daily, reports. The two countries’ respective academies of sciences are jointly implementing a project to promote the sustainable use of water resources and biodiversity conservation, according to the People’s Daily. “Water is the foundation of sustainable development and is closely linked to climate action, food and energy security, ecosystem protection and improvements in people’s quality of life,” the outlet quotes Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin as saying. “That is why addressing water-related challenges requires stronger international cooperation.” The New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy has developed an initiative called the Silk Seven-Plus (S7+), a blueprint to enable regional states to realize their economic growth ambitions. It is a multi-phase connectivity plan to strengthen the sovereignty of Central Asian states. The S7+ envisions the establishment of a trade crescent connecting the Caspian Basin to the Arabian Sea, unlocking Greater Central Asia’s full trade potential. The items included in this roundup are relevant to the development of the S7+ concept. By Euasianet More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

ارتفع مؤشر الأسهم السعودية الرئيس، اليوم، بمقدار 39.37 نقطة، ليصل إلى مستوى 10.852.41 نقطة، وبتداولات بلغت قيمتها 4.3 مليار ريال. وبلغت كمية الأسهم المتداولة -وفق النشرة الاقتصادية اليومية لوكالة الأنباء السعودية لسوق الأسهم السعودية- 219 مليون سهم، سجّلت فيها أسهم 118 شركة ارتفاعاً في قيمتها، فيما تراجعت أسهم 136 شركة. الأكثر ارتفاعاً وكانت أسهم شركات أنابيب السعودية، وأنابيب، وأنابيب الشرق، ومهارة، وبترو رابغ، الأكثر ارتفاعاً، أما أسهم شركات صادرات، والمتحدة للتأمين، ونسيج، وطباعة وتغليف، وسلامة الأكثر انخفاضاً في التعاملات، وراوحت نسب الارتفاع والانخفاض ما بين 7.76% و4.15%، فيما كانت أسهم شركات درب السعودية، وأنابيب، وأرامكو السعودية، وصادرات، وباتك، هي الأكثر نشاطاً بالكمية، بينما كانت أسهم شركات الراجحي، وأرامكو السعودية، والأسماك، ومعادن، وأكوا هي الأكثر نشاطاً في القيمة. وأغلق مؤشر الأسهم السعودية الموازية نمو اليوم مرتفعاً بمقدار 3.50 نقطة، ليصل إلى مستوى 22.667.30 نقطة، وبتداولات بلغت قيمتها 12 مليون ريال، وبلغت كمية الأسهم المتداولة أكثر من مليوني سهم.

For decades, Iran has relied on the Strait of Hormuz as its most effective geopolitical weapon -- a crucial energy chokepoint through which up to a third of the world’s oil is transported and about a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG). Tehran’s immediate blockade of the transit route at the onset of the 28 February U.S./Israeli joint military operation against Iran prompted a cessation of maritime traffic through the chokepoint, catalysing a spike in oil prices of over 70%. The prospect of such a blockade continuing into the U.S.’s 3 November Mid-Term Elections was the decisive factor behind President Donald Trump’s willingness to forge a peace deal, at least in the short term. This is because there is a direct link between the oil price, the price of gasoline, U.S. economic growth, and the success of incumbent presidents and their parties in elections, as fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Understandably, according to several senior energy security sources in London, Brussels, and Washington, exclusively spoken to by OilPrice.com over the past few days, moves are afoot to reshape the regional energy map to ensure that Iran’s Hormuz threat becomes increasingly ineffective in the coming years. So, what exactly is going on right now? Trump is fully in favour of medium- and long-term methods to circumvent the effectively Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz, particularly given the relative ineffectiveness of the short-term measures available once Tehran’s blockade was in place. The ‘Southern Highway’ corridor that hugged the coast of Oman and was actively backed by U.S. and Gulf allies proved slightly more effective at reducing market panic than it was at restoring the number of oil tankers in transit. During peak operations early in the blockade, the corridor allowed roughly a dozen vessels per weekend to transit, rising to around 119 ships by late June -- still a long way off the historical 700 weekly transits normal for the waterway. Similarly taking the edge off market panic but still representing a fraction of what was required over the medium- and long-term to keep oil prices from spiralling, were the land-based routes for trucks carrying oil through Iraq and Syria. Iraq’s case is instructive, as it managed to move around 500 trucks on average a day into Syria at the height of the blockade, with each one carrying around 250 barrels of crude oil -- totalling 125,000 barrels per day (bpd). That compared to the previous 3.3-3.4 million bpd it moved through the Strait of Hormuz before the blockade. More significant options were also used alongside these makeshift measures, with one being the capacity expansion of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline (1,200 km long, moving crude from eastern oil fields across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu) to 7 million bpd for a while. However, Yanbu's marine terminal and domestic refining create a bottleneck, capping actual export throughput at around 4.5 million bpd. Another option was the UAE’s Habshan–Fujairah Pipeline (360 km long, linking Abu Dhabi’s fields directly to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman), which has seen capacity increase to its maximum level of 1.8 million bpd. Related: Dip in U.S. LNG Imports to EU Spells Trouble for Trade Deal At the same time, further support came from increased oil supply from the U.S. and other countries, massive releases of barrels from the strategic petroleum reserves of International Energy Agency member countries, and a massive, multi-year oil supply surplus that acted as critical energy buffers to broader economic fallout when the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz hit. That said, going into the crisis, the U.S. oil industry was already pumping at absolute record highs, providing a vital supply baseline of 13.6 million bpd. Despite calls from Trump for this figure to be ramped up, big independent producers and majors are maintaining pre-war capital expenditure plans, with many having stated that they are already running close to full capacity. However, increased flows from countries Washington regards as being in its ‘Americas sphere of influence’ -- notably Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil -- are intended to form part of the long-term workaround for the dominance of the Strait of Hormuz in world oil flows. Venezuela remains at the top of the U.S.’s list for resuscitation of its potentially huge oil sector, with Argentina and Brazil not far behind and already producing significant increases in barrels, as analysed in full recently by OilPrice.com. The Americas hemisphere already accounts for 32% of global crude production, and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs, Caleb Orr, highlighted recently that Ecuador and El Salvador are also among the governments Washington works with “hand in glove” on security. He added that security is the “table stakes” for any productive economic relationship and the foundation of the broad-based change in the Americas. That said, this is only one part of the solution to the bypassing of the Strait of Hormuz puzzle currently being worked on by Washington and its allies, including those in the Middle East. The first phase of these efforts looks to bypass up to 50% of the normal 20–21 million bpd oil flow going through the Strait using existing overland corridors and fast-tracked construction. The UAE, for example, is already fast-tracking a second parallel pipeline to Fujairah, which should double its bypass capacity to over 3 million bpd, with completion brought forward to 2027. A similar U.S.-inspired idea is to enable Iraq to bypass the Strait by pumping more northern oil through the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast, with capacity here recently reactivated to handle 170,000-250,000 bpd. Progress has been halted by a failure to reach an agreement with Turkey, as also detailed recently by OilPrice.com, but given how geopolitically important it is to the U.S. and its allies, the impasse looks unlikely to persist too much longer, according to a senior source who works closely with the European Union’s (E.U.) energy security complex. Other pipelines running through Iraq and into Syria, Jordan, or Oman are also under discussion, the source adds. Just last week, Iraq’s Foreign Minister, Fuad Hussein, met with Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa in Damascus to advance plans for expanding cooperation on energy infrastructure, including the project to rehabilitate the 800-kilometre pipeline from Iraq’s Kirkuk to the Syrian port of Banias, which has a historical design capacity of 300,000 bpd. Last month, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi and U.S. Special Presidential Envoy Tom Barrack advanced a memorandum of understanding with U.S.-based investment firm TI Capital to fund and project-manage the pipeline's reconstruction. In parallel with this, the U.S. and its allies are also fast-tracking the huge Basra-Haditha Pipeline, as detailed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. This US$5 billion, 700-km internal pipeline would run from the southern oil fields of Iraq up to Haditha and would have a capacity of 2.25-2.5 million bpd. When finished, it would allow Iraq to pump its enormous southern oil reserves directly to the north and into Europe or Syria, completely bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps the single-most strategically important component of the U.S.-led effort to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz is the long-planned but now dynamically expedited India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Originally launched at the 2023 G20 Summit but stalled by regional conflict, the project has been turbocharged by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, with planners now estimating that it could eventually divert around 60% of container traffic that currently risks transiting Hormuz. Its architecture is built around two integrated corridors: an eastern maritime leg linking India’s western ports to the Arabian Gulf, and a northern overland rail network running through Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Israel’s Port of Haifa, from where short?sea shipping connects directly to Europe. Crucially, the 2026 wartime redesign anchors the eastern maritime leg in Oman rather than the UAE, allowing ships from India to unload entirely outside the Strait of Hormuz before transferring cargo onto the Arabian Peninsula rail grid. Additional ‘IMEC Plus’ nodes through Egypt and Syria are under discussion to create a wider lattice of land?based alternatives, while new legal frameworks -- including the India–EU free trade agreement and the U.S. Senate’s Eastern Mediterranean Gateway Act -- have formally designated Greece as Europe’s entry hub, according to the E.U. source. This positions IMEC as a central pillar of the broader strategy to bypass Hormuz and permanently reduce Iran’s ability to weaponise the chokepoint. These measures demonstrate that Washington and its allies are no longer relying on short?term crisis management but are instead building a permanent, multi?route architecture that makes any future blockade far less economically damaging. Iran will retain the ability to disrupt regional shipping, but its leverage over global oil flows is being structurally eroded with every kilometre of new pipeline, port expansion, and corridor redesign. The long?term objective is clear: ensure that the next Hormuz crisis does not become a global one. By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

ارتفع مؤشر الأسهم السعودية الرئيس اليوم، بمقدار 14.07 نقطة، ليصل إلى مستوى 10.813.04 نقطة، وبتداولات بلغت قيمتها 3.7 مليار ريال. وبلغت كمية الأسهم المتداولة -وفق النشرة الاقتصادية اليومية لوكالة الأنباء السعودية لسوق الأسهم السعودية- 244 مليون سهم، سجّلت فيها أسهم 96 شركة ارتفاعاً في قيمتها، فيما تراجعت أسهم 157 شركة. الأكثر ارتفاعاً وكانت أسهم شركات صناعة الورق، والأسماك، والشرقية للتنمية، ومتكاملة، ورعاية، الأكثر ارتفاعاً، أما أسهم شركات درب السعودية، وباتك، وام آي اس، والاتحاد، وصادرات الأكثر انخفاضاً في التعاملات، وراوحت نسب الارتفاع والانخفاض ما بين 9.99% و5.69%، فيما كانت أسهم شركات باتك، ودرب السعودية، وأمريكانا، وأرامكو السعودية، وبان، هي الأكثر نشاطاً بالكمية، بينما كانت أسهم شركات الراجحي، والأسماك، وأرامكو السعودية، ورسن، والأهلي، هي الأكثر نشاطاً في القيمة. وأغلق مؤشر الأسهم السعودية الموازية نمو اليوم منخفضاً بمقدار 26.15 نقطة، ليصل إلى مستوى 22663.80 نقطة، وبتداولات بلغت قيمتها 15 مليون ريال، وبلغت كمية الأسهم المتداولة أكثر من 2.7 مليون سهم.

أعلنت <a href="https://www.alyaum.com/articles/6671022/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%A9/%D8%AA%D9%83%D9%86%D9%88%D9%84%D9%88%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%A7/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%84%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%82%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B7%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%A1" target="_blank">الصين</a> و<a href="https://www.alyaum.com/articles/6670896/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85/%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%A5%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7%D9%8A-%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D8%A3%D9%88%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A" target="_blank">روسيا</a> أنهما ستجريان <a href="https://www.alyaum.com/articles/6666638/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85/%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%84%D9%82-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A9" target="_blank">مناوراتهما</a> البحرية المشتركة السنوية قبالة سواحل الصين، بداية من اليوم الاثنين بحسب ما أعلنت موسكو.<br />وترتبط موسكو وبكين بعلاقات اقتصادية ودبلوماسية وثيقة، ونفّذت القوات الصينية والروسية مناورات مشتركة منتظمة في السنوات الأخيرة، في شراكة تنظر إليها حكومات غربية وبعض الحكومات الأخرى بعين الريبة في ظل استمرار الحرب الروسية في أوكرانيا.<br />وستشارك القوات البحرية للبلدين في مناورات "البحر المشترك 2026" في المياه والمجال الجوي قبالة تشينجداو، وهي ميناء عسكري رئيسي ومنتجع ساحلي في شرق الصين، حسبما ذكر بيان لوزارة الدفاع الصينية.<br />وأضاف البيان: بعد المناورات، ستنظم بعض القوات من كلا الجانبين دورية بحرية مشتركة في مناطق ذات صلة من المحيط الهادئ.<br />وتابع البيان: يهدف هذا الترتيب إلى الاستجابة المشتركة للتحديات الأمنية وحماية السلام والاستقرار الإقليميين.<h2>تفاصيل المناورات</h2>وقالت قيادة المنطقة الشمالية بالجيش الصيني في بيان منفصل، إن مدمرتين وفرقاطة وغواصة وسفينة إمداد وسفينة إنقاذ ستشارك في المناورات.<br />وأفاد البيان بأن جميع القوات المشاركة وصلت بالفعل إلى تشينجداو.<br />وأوضح أن المناورات ستشمل مهام الاستطلاع، والدفاع الجوي والصاروخي، وتنفيذ ضربات ضد أهداف سطحية.<br />وأعلن الأسطول الروسي في المحيط الهادئ في بيان، أن التدريبات ستُجرى في الفترة من 6 إلى 13 يوليو في البحر الأصفر الفاصل بين الصين وشبه الجزيرة الكورية.<br /> <br />وأفاد البيان الذي أوردته وكالات الأنباء الروسية، بأن المناورات ستتضمن كذلك عمليات إنقاذ مشتركة، ومهام لمكافحة الغواصات والدفاع الجوي، فضلًا عن تدريبات على المدفعية.<br />وأضاف أن طرادًا روسيا وفرقاطة، وغواصة تعمل بالديزل، وسفينة إنقاذ، وصلت إلى ميناء تشينجداو قبيل انطلاق المناورات.<h2>تعزيز الشراكة الاستراتيجية</h2>وفي كلمة ألقاها في حفل أقيم في تشينجداو، قال الأدميرال الروسي سيرجي سينكو، إن مناورات "البحر المشترك 2026" تهدف إلى "تعزيز الشراكة الاستراتيجية بين بلدينا، وضمان السلام والاستقرار في المنطقة"، حسبما نقلت عنه وكالة تاس للأنباء.<br />تأتي هذه المناورات بعد نحو شهرين من زيارة الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين إلى الصين.<br />وصرح بوتين آنذاك بأن العلاقات بلغت مستوى غير مسبوق، بينما أشاد الرئيس الصيني شي جين بينج بالشراكة الراسخة بين البلدين.<br />وتجري بكين وموسكو مناورات "البحر المشترك" منذ 2012، وأعقبت مناورات العام الماضي قرب ميناء فلاديفوستوك بشرق روسيا دوريات مشتركة في المحيط الهادئ.<br />ولم تعلن الصين إدانتها الغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا المستمر منذ 2022، لكنها تؤكد حيادها وتدعو باستمرار إلى محادثات سلام.<br />ويعتقد العديد من حلفاء أوكرانيا الغربيين، ومن بينهم الولايات المتحدة، أن بكين قدمت دعمًا للمجهود الحربي الروسي.<br />