أسعار الديزل في كاليفورنيا تسجل مستوى قياسياً عند 8.14 دولارات للغالون مع تعرض إمدادات النفط العالمية لضربة أخرى
قراءة سريعة أدى إغلاق خط الأنابيب الشرقي-الغربي في السعودية إلى إزالة 4% من الإمدادات العالمية، مما دفع سعر برنت إلى 109 دولارات للبرميل ووصل سعر الديزل في كاليفورنيا إلى مستوى قياسي بلغ 8.14 دولارات للغالون. مع إغلاق مضيق هرمز منذ فبراير وسيطرة قوات الحوثي على نقاط الاختناق في البحر الأحمر، فقدت إمدادات النفط العالمية كلا مساري الشحن البديلين الرئيسيين. تنعكس تكاليف الديزل على أسعار البقالة والشحن خلال 6-10 أسابيع، وقد يؤدي تجاوز المتوسط الوطني 6.50 دولارات إلى إفلاس شركات النقل بالشاحنات قبل الشتاء. صدر للتو. قام محللونا بتمشيط سوق الأسهم بأكمله واختاروا أفضل عشر أسهم للشراء الآن.
Quick Read
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shutdown removed 4% of global supply, pushing Brent to $109/barrel and California diesel to a record $8.14/gallon.
With Hormuz closed since February and Houthi forces seizing Red Sea chokepoints, global oil supply has lost both major alternative shipping routes.
Diesel costs roll into groceries and freight within 6-10 weeks, and a national average above $6.50 could trigger trucking bankruptcies before winter.
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A gas station in California this weekend maxed out its pump display at $9.999 for diesel, unable to show what it actually needed to charge. That image, splashed across Bloomberg and Fortune over the past several days, is the concrete face of a supply shock that has been building since late winter and just took its worst turn yet. California's statewide average diesel price hit $8.14 a gallon, a record, while the national average diesel price crossed $6.20 a gallon, also a first. Trucks still have to move. Farmers still have to harvest. Every one of those miles now costs materially more than it did in July.
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Why the Pipeline Shutdown Changes the Math
The reason prices jumped this week, rather than last, is Saudi Arabia. Riyadh shut its East-West pipeline over the weekend, the line that was supposed to be the workaround if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed. Reuters put the outage at roughly 4% of global oil supply. Brent responded immediately, closing at $109.51 a barrel on September 9, up from $68.53 on July 2. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, sits at $103.50 a barrel, up 22.3% in a month.
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The Hormuz backdrop is the deeper problem. Nearly a fifth of global oil normally moves through that chokepoint, and it has been effectively shut since a late-February conflict. The Energy Information Administration's May outlook assumed Middle East producers had shut in 10.5 million barrels per day in April, with peak shut-ins near 10.8 million b/d in May. Traffic through Hormuz is still running below its 10-day average. The alternative route around the Arabian Peninsula got more dangerous after Houthi forces seized a key island in the Bab al-Mandeb strait, squeezing the Red Sea corridor too.
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