الدولار يسجل أعلى مستوى جديد له منذ 40 عاماً مقابل الين، واليورو أضعف بعد تثبيت البنك المركزي الأوروبي للأسعار

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, July 23 (Reuters) - The dollar strengthened to a fresh 40-year high against the yen and climbed against the euro on Thursday as oil prices continued to shoot higher on rising hostilities in the Middle East, while the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged.

Oil prices rose for a fifth straight ‌day, with Brent touching the $100 a barrel mark for the first time since May 26, as U.S. President Donald Trump promised "major military punishment" for Iran and its Houthi ‌allies, after the Yemeni fighters struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, spreading the Middle East war to a second major shipping chokepoint.

The dollar has been rising in recent days as renewed strikes in the U.S.-Iran conflict ​have caused a reversal in oil prices and again fanned inflation fears, in turn buoying expectations the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates.

The U.S. economy is seen as more insulated from energy price shocks compared with Europe and Japan, which has also supported the dollar.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.36% to 101.47, with the euro down 0.33% at $1.1372. The dollar was on track for its biggest daily percentage gain in a month.

U.S. crude jumped 6.81% to $92.75 a barrel and Brent surged to $101.21 per barrel, up 7.59% on the day.

ECB HOLDS RATES STEADY

The ECB kept interest rates ‌unchanged as expected but held the door open to another increase ⁠in September, as a fresh jump in energy prices threatens to keep inflation well above its 2% target. President Christine Lagarde said "while developments in underlying inflation have remained contained, the full effects of the energy shock have yet to play out".

"(Lagarde) said the risks of a weakened economy are high ⁠and the risks of higher inflation are high, but given that, they're not raising rates, so of course, the dollar's continuing to strengthen," said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet in New York.

"So what are we pricing in here — are we pricing in higher prices in oil, which you've already seen, or are we pricing in the possibility of disruption, which does exist? Anytime there's an active shooting war, things are not ​very ​predictable."

Markets are now pricing in a 71% chance of a rate hike from the ECB at its September ​meeting, according to LSEG data.

Analysts at Morgan Stanly said in a note ‌that a hike from the central bank would be positive for the euro, as markets are not pricing in a deep enough restriction to hurt the currency, and would not be high enough to restrict growth.