تقدم الحوثيون نحو باب المندب مع تعرض طريق النفط السعودي للتهديد

Qatar is negotiating long-term LNG purchases from U.S. suppliers after the Iran war crippled its own ability to export gas. QatarEnergy is considering supplies from both operating and under-construction U.S. export projects. Qatar supplied roughly one-fifth of global LNG before the conflict, but exports have almost stopped due to the Hormuz closure, and an Iranian strike damaged its Ras Laffan LNG complex; repairs could take three to five years. Before the war, Qatar was preparing to nearly double its own LNG production…

Yemen's Houthis captured the Red Sea port of Mocha on Thursday, taking the approach to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea (and the Suez Canal, beyond it) to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Bab al-Mandeb is 12 miles wide and carries 6.2 million barrels of oil and refined products a day (plus ~80% of the LNG shipped north to Europe). Houthi attacks made these waters unsafe for shipping in 2024, and Suez Canal revenue fell more than 60% that year, costing Egypt $7B. Houthi forces also captured Perim Island (13 square kilometers that split the strait into two channels) and Zuqar Island. Holding Perim lets the group monitor and potentially mine the waterway. Brent crude soared to $108 on Thursday, with WTI surpassing $103. Saudi Arabia has rerouted more than 70% of its crude exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu since Iran closed Hormuz. Houthis are now threatening that alternate Saudi route.

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Yemen's Houthis captured the Red Sea port of Mocha on Thursday, taking the approach to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea (and the Suez Canal, beyond it) to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Bab al-Mandeb is 12 miles wide and carries 6.2 million barrels of oil and refined products a day (plus ~80% of the LNG shipped north to Europe). Houthi attacks made these waters unsafe for shipping in 2024, and Suez Canal revenue fell more than 60% that year, costing Egypt $7B. Houthi forces also captured Perim Island (13 square kilometers that split the strait into two channels) and Zuqar Island. Holding Perim lets the group monitor and potentially mine the waterway. Brent crude soared to $108 on Thursday, with WTI surpassing $103. Saudi Arabia has rerouted more than 70% of its crude exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu since Iran closed Hormuz. Houthis are now threatening that alternate Saudi route.

Qatar is negotiating long-term LNG purchases from U.S. suppliers after the Iran war crippled its own ability to export gas. QatarEnergy is considering supplies from both operating and under-construction U.S. export projects. Qatar supplied roughly one-fifth of global LNG before the conflict, but exports have almost stopped due to the Hormuz closure, and an Iranian strike damaged its Ras Laffan LNG complex; repairs could take three to five years. Before the war, Qatar was preparing to nearly double its own LNG production by 2030. It already has a foothold in the U.S. through its stake in the Golden Pass LNG terminal in Texas, which started exports in April, and QatarEnergy Trading has been expanding its ability to market U.S. cargoes.

Trump said this week the war with Iran is going to end “immediately after” November 3rd midterm elections. Six days prior, Vance told reporters he "wouldn't call it a war" at all (markets would disagree), and Trump’s advisors are reportedly warning him the war could last for the rest of his term. Iran answered five days of U.S. tanker strikes by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. air base in Jordan, damaging aircraft. In the meantime, the IAEA board voted 23-3-8 this week to refer Iran's nuclear file to the UN Security Council, the first such referral in two decades, after losing track of roughly 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity.

Algeria severed diplomatic relations with the UAE on Thursday, giving Abu Dhabi's ambassador 48 hours to leave after what its foreign ministry called the "exhaustion of all means to preserve bilateral relations." Algiers points to the UAE's financing of Khalifa Haftar's forces in eastern Libya, its backing of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces militia (accused of genocide in Sudan's civil war), and its support for Morocco's claim to Western Sahara. Algiers is also pushing back (perhaps more importantly) against the UAE’s networking with the Kabylie autonomy movement, which Algiers designates a terrorist organization.

Ukraine struck naval, oil and gas infrastructure across Russia this week, from the Black Sea to the Arctic. Ukrainian forces said they hit three Russian Navy vessels at Novorossiysk, along with fuel oil storage facilities at the port. Drones also hit the commercial port at Makhachkala in Dagestan, Russia’s only year-round deepwater port on the Caspian. Ukraine also struck the Novy Urengoy condensate processing plant in the Yamalo-Nenets region after a drone flight of more than 3,000 kilometers, the longest so far. The plant processes gas condensate from one of Russia’s most important producing regions and has a design capacity of ~19.5 million tons a year.

Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions

Holtec wants a $10.2 billion valuation for a plant that has not restarted and a reactor it has not built. Net income for the six months ended June 30 rose 48 percent to $205.6 million; revenue over the same period fell 6 percent, to $269.9 million from $286.6 million a year earlier. The Camden, New Jersey company, founded in 1986 by Krishna Singh, is offering 50 million shares at $15 to $18 to raise up to $900 million, listing on Nasdaq as HNUC with J.P. Morgan, Guggenheim Securities, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and BofA Securities running the book. Holtec has not deployed a small modular reactor; the first two units are only expected to be deployed at its Palisades site. The 800-megawatt Palisades plant is decommissioned; restarting it would make Holtec the first company to bring a U.S. commercial reactor back online after shutdown. X-Energy and Standard Nuclear went public through traditional IPOs earlier this year; Westinghouse has filed confidentially for a New York listing behind them.

Tamarack Valley Energy and Headwater Exploration agreed Tuesday to a $10 billion Canadian all-stock merger, creating the largest pure-play producer in Alberta's Clearwater heavy oil fairway. Headwater shareholders get one Tamarack share for each held, a 237.8 million-share issuance that leaves the combined company 66.5 percent owned by Tamarack holders and 33.5 percent by Headwater's. The merged firm holds more than 1,500 sections across Marten Hills, Nipisi and Marten Hills West, producing over 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day at a free funds flow breakeven of US$37 a barrel unhedged. Tamarack has locked in 35,000 barrels a day of pipeline egress out of Alberta — 25,000 on the expanding Trans Mountain line to the west coast starting in early 2027, and 10,000 on the proposed South Bow Prairie Connector to the US Gulf Coast.

Enbridge is paying $2.55 billion for Tallgrass Energy’s crude transportation business, giving it a major new position between the U.S. Rockies and Cushing. The deal includes 75% of the 1,050-mile Pony Express pipeline, 51% of the 240,000 bpd Powder River Gateway system and 8.4 million barrels of storage across nine terminals. Enbridge also takes over the $300 million PXP2 project, which will increase Pony Express capacity to about 515,000 bpd in late 2027.

North American Blue Energy Partners said it plans to raise Venezuelan production from roughly 200,000 bpd today to 500,000 bpd by the end of 2028, putting the little-known company at the center of Trump’s effort to rebuild the country’s oil industry. NABEP has already increased production more than 10X in two years, making it Venezuela’s second-largest private producer behind Chevron, but its fortunes changed wildly with the deal Washington and Caracas announced last month: NABEP received 100-year rights to 17 fields holding an estimated 65 billion barrels, while the Pentagon secured a 35% stake through warrants designed to prevent dilution as outside capital comes in. Washington chose NABEP after becoming frustrated with the pace of investment by the major oil companies, handing a central role to Alejandro Betancourt, a Venezuelan businessman whose companies were investigated for years in the U.S. and Europe over alleged money laundering and tax offenses but who was never charged and denies wrongdoing.

Discovery & Development

TotalEnergies will bring its Acacia-5 discovery on Angola's Block 17 into production three months after finding it, using spare capacity on the Pazflor FPSO already installed in the block. The discovery, made in June, adds 6,000 barrels a day to Block 17 output. It is TotalEnergies' second Angolan discovery this year, after a Block 0 find where the company holds a 10% stake alongside operator Chevron. TotalEnergies also signed agreements this week to operate two new exploration blocks, 17/25 and 32/21, with a 40% interest in each. Both are in the Lower Congo Basin next to six FPSOs the company already operates, which means tie-backs instead of new infrastructure. In February, TotalEnergies signed a separate agreement with ExxonMobil and Angola's state regulator for a 35% interest in four exploration blocks in the Benguela Basin. Angola produced 156,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for TotalEnergies in 2025, 45% of it from the company's deepwater operated assets.