أسعار الخام تتراجع بعد توقعات الوكالة الدولية للطاقة بانخفاض حاد في الطلب على النفط

October WTI crude oil (CLV26) on Friday closed down -2.43 (-2.37%), and October RBOB gasoline (RBV26) closed down -0.0860 (-2.53%).

Oct WTI oil prices on Friday fell back after Thursday's +6.7% rally to a 3.5-month high. Oil prices fell back after the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday warned that high oil prices and restricted oil supply will cause the biggest drop in global oil demand this year since the Covid-19 pandemic. Despite the projected demand drop, the IEA raised its estimate for this year's global oil deficit to 1.7 million bpd from last month's 1.3 million bpd estimate due to the restricted supply caused by the US-Iran war. The IEA said the return of a global oil surplus will be delayed until 2027, later than its previous estimate of late 2026.

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There were reports that two ships were struck by unidentified projectiles near Oman on Thursday, presumably by Iran. Iran said earlier this week that it is ready for a more intense war and will escalate counterstrikes if the US continues attacking its territory and infrastructure. The prospect of a lengthy conflict that limits crude supplies from the Middle East is underpinning crude oil prices.

Crude also has support as Yemen's Houthi rebels target energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, forcing several oil facilities to halt production. Saudi Arabia on Thursday said its crude production in August fell to 6.238 million bpd, the lowest since 1990.

The Houthi rebels captured the strategic Red Sea port city of Mokha on Thursday, 50 miles from the narrow Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, putting the group in a stronger position to attack ships. Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has pivoted to the Red Sea to export most of its oil, but over the past two months, escalating tensions with the Houthis have disrupted that route.

Vitol Group said that global oil markets are continuing to tighten, with the loss of about 2 million bpd from crude exports in the Middle East, and a further 2 million bpd from Russia as a result of Ukraine's drone attacks. Data compiled by Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa showed that Saudi Arabia's Aug crude exports dropped to about 3 million bpd, the lowest amount in 9 years.