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Armenia's Western Pivot Survives Moscow's Pressure Campaign

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Serbia’s NIS refinery has reached an agreement with Hungarian MOL on the framework for a potential acquisition of Gazprom Neft’s 56.15% stake. All major outstanding issues between Belgrade and Budapest have been resolved, including safeguards designed to preserve Serbia’s influence over the company. Under the agreement, if Gazprom Neft and MOL finalize a transaction and receive approval from the U.S. Treasury’s… Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won re-election on Sunday, defeating a Russian-backed opposition campaign and keeping the country on the Western trajectory. But the result fell short of giving him the parliamentary supermajority needed to easily implement some of the most consequential elements of his agenda. Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won 64 of 105 seats. It’s enough to remain in power and continue deepening ties with the U.S. and EU, while advancing a U.S.-backed normalization process with Azerbaijan and Turkey. It’s a setback for Moscow, which spent weeks escalating economic pressure on Armenia through trade restrictions, threats to suspend cheap energy supplies, and warnings that Armenia’s push toward Europe could trigger severe economic consequences. On the regional front, Azerbaijan continues to demand constitutional changes removing references linked to Nagorno-Karabakh before a final peace treaty can be signed. That process requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority that Pashinyan does not have. Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won re-election on Sunday, defeating a Russian-backed opposition campaign and keeping the country on the Western trajectory. But the result fell short of giving him the parliamentary supermajority needed to easily implement some of the most consequential elements of his agenda. Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won 64 of 105 seats. It’s enough to remain in power and continue deepening ties with the U.S. and EU, while advancing a U.S.-backed normalization process with Azerbaijan and Turkey. It’s a setback for Moscow, which spent weeks escalating economic pressure on Armenia through trade restrictions, threats to suspend cheap energy supplies, and warnings that Armenia’s push toward Europe could trigger severe economic consequences. On the regional front, Azerbaijan continues to demand constitutional changes removing references linked to Nagorno-Karabakh before a final peace treaty can be signed. That process requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority that Pashinyan does not have. Serbia’s NIS refinery has reached an agreement with Hungarian MOL on the framework for a potential acquisition of Gazprom Neft’s 56.15% stake. All major outstanding issues between Belgrade and Budapest have been resolved, including safeguards designed to preserve Serbia’s influence over the company. Under the agreement, if Gazprom Neft and MOL finalize a transaction and receive approval from the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC, the Serbian state will acquire an additional 5% stake in NIS, giving Belgrade greater leverage over strategic decisions. MOL has also committed to maintaining operations at the Pan?evo refinery at least at the average levels achieved during the four years prior to U.S. sanctions. Belgrade was concerned about utilization, given that NIS supplies ~80% of the country’s fuel market. The development comes as Serbia’s sanctions waiver for NIS expires on June 16th, which is not likely enough time to avoid an extension. A resolution of NIS ownership would end months of uncertainty surrounding one of the most important energy assets in the Balkans. Egypt has fully repaid all outstanding arrears to IOCs, finally eliminating the biggest obstacle to investment in the country’s upstream sector. On June 10, arrears, which stood at roughly $6.1 billion in mid-2024, were officially zeroed out. The mountain of arrears had led major operators (Eni, BP, Apache, Chevron, Shell) to slow drilling, delay development, and further undermine confidence in Egypt’s ability to attract long-term capital. Cairo says international oil companies have already committed more than $19 billion in new investments over the next three years ($8B from Eni, $5B from BP, $4B from Apache, $2B from UAE-based Arcius Energy). Washington has slapped sanctions on Cuba’s state energy company, Cupet, which manages the island’s oil imports, fuel distribution system, and electricity generation network. The U.S. Secretary of State has accused Cuba’s leadership of mismanaging and diverting energy resources while ordinary Cubans suffer through chronic fuel shortages and rolling blackouts. Last week, Washington imposed sanctions against President Miguel Díaz-Canel and other senior Cuban officials. Cuba is grappling with a severe energy crisis as a result of corruption and sanctions. Trump recently suggested Cuba would be addressed as soon as he wraps up the Iran conflict. Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions Cypress Creek Energy has secured $3.5 billion in financing for what is becoming one of the largest solar and battery storage complexes in the United States. The first two phases of the Steel River Energy Center in Arkansas will combine 1.63 GW of solar generation with 1.9 GWh of battery storage, while the full three-phase project is expected to reach 2.45 GW of solar capacity and 2.9 GWh of storage by 2029. Significant capital is flowing into utility-scale power infrastructure as electricity demand surges from data centers, etc. ERock made its public market debut this week with a valuation of roughly $5.5 billion for its modular power infrastructure for data centers. The company designs and deploys modular power systems that can be rapidly installed for hyperscale data centers, utilities, and large commercial customers. ERock generated less than $200 million in revenue last year and is still not profitable. Gunvor’s decision to back Western Natural Resources’ roughly $300 million acquisition of Haynesville shale assets is another sign that investors are getting bullish on long-term U.S. natural gas demand. The Haynesville is directly upstream from the Gulf Coast LNG export corridor. Western said it is actively pursuing additional acquisitions tied to Gulf Coast demand growth, while Gunvor pointed to rising electricity consumption from AI infrastructure and growing international interest in secure energy supplies outside the Middle East. Capital is once again flowing into dry gas acreage on the assumption that LNG exports, data center demand, and power generation needs will keep U.S. gas consumption structurally higher for years to come. SLB has signed a long-term cooperation agreement with Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA, positioning itself at the center of efforts to rebuild the sector. The agreement covers exploration, field development, production optimization, digital transformation, and workforce training, with a particular emphasis on applying AI-driven workflows, predictive models, and connected data systems across Venezuela’s oil industry. China is preparing one of its largest domestic stock offerings in years as state-backed renewable developer China Resources New Energy moves ahead with a planned ~$3.4 billion Shenzhen IPO. The IPO will fund a massive expansion of wind and solar generation capacity. The company plans to sell roughly 2.1 billion shares. The scale of the offering is large, given the difficulties of operating in China’s renewable sector right now. First-quarter profit fell 31% while revenue declined nearly 3% as weather conditions, power curtailment and lower electricity prices weighed on earnings. Even so, investors appear willing to finance another major buildout. If completed as targeted, the IPO would rank among the largest Chinese listings in recent years. Discovery & Development Commonwealth LNG has secured financing commitments from a syndicate of 20 international banks for its 9.5 million tonne per year export project in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, providing another indication that global demand for U.S. LNG capacity remains strong despite growing uncertainty in energy markets. The commitments follow the project’s recent final investment decision. They also remind us how capital continues to pour into American LNG infrastructure as the U.S. seeks to establish itself as the world’s leading exporter. U.S. regulators have approved the first offshore LNG export terminal ever licensed in American waters, clearing the way for Delfin Midstream’s $5-billion floating LNG project off the coast of Louisiana. The project will initially export 4.4 million tonnes per year beginning around 2030 before expanding to 13.2 million tonnes annually across three floating liquefaction vessels, consuming roughly 1.8 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. Biden rejected the project in 2024, but Trump revived it under its energy dominance agenda, granting both the deepwater port license and export authorization. Samsung Heavy Industries will build the floating facilities, which will be located about 40 miles offshore near Cameron Parish. India and the UAE are moving to increase UAE-linked strategic oil storage capacity in India from 5.8 million barrels to 30 million barrels, a more than fivefold expansion that would dramatically increase New Delhi’s ability to withstand future supply disruptions. The initiative follows agreements signed during Modi’s recent visit to Abu Dhabi and comes as the Hormuz crisis lays bare India’s heavy dependence on crude imports (India imports ~88% of its oil needs). Officials are considering a combination of new storage facilities, expanded underground caverns and commercial arrangements that would allow stored crude to be sold domestically or exported under the right market conditions. The two countries are also exploring strategic gas reserves and potential storage arrangements at Fujairah.

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Armenia's Western Pivot Survives Moscow's Pressure Campaign

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Serbia’s NIS refinery has reached an agreement with Hungarian MOL on the framework for a potential acquisition of Gazprom Neft’s 56.15% stake. All major outstanding issues between Belgrade and Budapest have been resolved, including safeguards designed to preserve Serbia’s influence over the company. Under the agreement, if Gazprom Neft and MOL finalize a transaction and receive approval from the U.S. Treasury’s… Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won re-election on Sunday, defeating a Russian-backed opposition campaign and keeping the country on the Western trajectory. But the result fell short of giving him the parliamentary supermajority needed to easily implement some of the most consequential elements of his agenda. Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won 64 of 105 seats. It’s enough to remain in power and continue deepening ties with the U.S. and EU, while advancing a U.S.-backed normalization process with Azerbaijan and Turkey. It’s a setback for Moscow, which spent weeks escalating economic pressure on Armenia through trade restrictions, threats to suspend cheap energy supplies, and warnings that Armenia’s push toward Europe could trigger severe economic consequences. On the regional front, Azerbaijan continues to demand constitutional changes removing references linked to Nagorno-Karabakh before a final peace treaty can be signed. That process requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority that Pashinyan does not have. Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won re-election on Sunday, defeating a Russian-backed opposition campaign and keeping the country on the Western trajectory. But the result fell short of giving him the parliamentary supermajority needed to easily implement some of the most consequential elements of his agenda. Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won 64 of 105 seats. It’s enough to remain in power and continue deepening ties with the U.S. and EU, while advancing a U.S.-backed normalization process with Azerbaijan and Turkey. It’s a setback for Moscow, which spent weeks escalating economic pressure on Armenia through trade restrictions, threats to suspend cheap energy supplies, and warnings that Armenia’s push toward Europe could trigger severe economic consequences. On the regional front, Azerbaijan continues to demand constitutional changes removing references linked to Nagorno-Karabakh before a final peace treaty can be signed. That process requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority that Pashinyan does not have. Serbia’s NIS refinery has reached an agreement with Hungarian MOL on the framework for a potential acquisition of Gazprom Neft’s 56.15% stake. All major outstanding issues between Belgrade and Budapest have been resolved, including safeguards designed to preserve Serbia’s influence over the company. Under the agreement, if Gazprom Neft and MOL finalize a transaction and receive approval from the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC, the Serbian state will acquire an additional 5% stake in NIS, giving Belgrade greater leverage over strategic decisions. MOL has also committed to maintaining operations at the Pan?evo refinery at least at the average levels achieved during the four years prior to U.S. sanctions. Belgrade was concerned about utilization, given that NIS supplies ~80% of the country’s fuel market. The development comes as Serbia’s sanctions waiver for NIS expires on June 16th, which is not likely enough time to avoid an extension. A resolution of NIS ownership would end months of uncertainty surrounding one of the most important energy assets in the Balkans. Egypt has fully repaid all outstanding arrears to IOCs, finally eliminating the biggest obstacle to investment in the country’s upstream sector. On June 10, arrears, which stood at roughly $6.1 billion in mid-2024, were officially zeroed out. The mountain of arrears had led major operators (Eni, BP, Apache, Chevron, Shell) to slow drilling, delay development, and further undermine confidence in Egypt’s ability to attract long-term capital. Cairo says international oil companies have already committed more than $19 billion in new investments over the next three years ($8B from Eni, $5B from BP, $4B from Apache, $2B from UAE-based Arcius Energy). Washington has slapped sanctions on Cuba’s state energy company, Cupet, which manages the island’s oil imports, fuel distribution system, and electricity generation network. The U.S. Secretary of State has accused Cuba’s leadership of mismanaging and diverting energy resources while ordinary Cubans suffer through chronic fuel shortages and rolling blackouts. Last week, Washington imposed sanctions against President Miguel Díaz-Canel and other senior Cuban officials. Cuba is grappling with a severe energy crisis as a result of corruption and sanctions. Trump recently suggested Cuba would be addressed as soon as he wraps up the Iran conflict. Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions Cypress Creek Energy has secured $3.5 billion in financing for what is becoming one of the largest solar and battery storage complexes in the United States. The first two phases of the Steel River Energy Center in Arkansas will combine 1.63 GW of solar generation with 1.9 GWh of battery storage, while the full three-phase project is expected to reach 2.45 GW of solar capacity and 2.9 GWh of storage by 2029. Significant capital is flowing into utility-scale power infrastructure as electricity demand surges from data centers, etc. ERock made its public market debut this week with a valuation of roughly $5.5 billion for its modular power infrastructure for data centers. The company designs and deploys modular power systems that can be rapidly installed for hyperscale data centers, utilities, and large commercial customers. ERock generated less than $200 million in revenue last year and is still not profitable. Gunvor’s decision to back Western Natural Resources’ roughly $300 million acquisition of Haynesville shale assets is another sign that investors are getting bullish on long-term U.S. natural gas demand. The Haynesville is directly upstream from the Gulf Coast LNG export corridor. Western said it is actively pursuing additional acquisitions tied to Gulf Coast demand growth, while Gunvor pointed to rising electricity consumption from AI infrastructure and growing international interest in secure energy supplies outside the Middle East. Capital is once again flowing into dry gas acreage on the assumption that LNG exports, data center demand, and power generation needs will keep U.S. gas consumption structurally higher for years to come. SLB has signed a long-term cooperation agreement with Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA, positioning itself at the center of efforts to rebuild the sector. The agreement covers exploration, field development, production optimization, digital transformation, and workforce training, with a particular emphasis on applying AI-driven workflows, predictive models, and connected data systems across Venezuela’s oil industry. China is preparing one of its largest domestic stock offerings in years as state-backed renewable developer China Resources New Energy moves ahead with a planned ~$3.4 billion Shenzhen IPO. The IPO will fund a massive expansion of wind and solar generation capacity. The company plans to sell roughly 2.1 billion shares. The scale of the offering is large, given the difficulties of operating in China’s renewable sector right now. First-quarter profit fell 31% while revenue declined nearly 3% as weather conditions, power curtailment and lower electricity prices weighed on earnings. Even so, investors appear willing to finance another major buildout. If completed as targeted, the IPO would rank among the largest Chinese listings in recent years. Discovery & Development Commonwealth LNG has secured financing commitments from a syndicate of 20 international banks for its 9.5 million tonne per year export project in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, providing another indication that global demand for U.S. LNG capacity remains strong despite growing uncertainty in energy markets. The commitments follow the project’s recent final investment decision. They also remind us how capital continues to pour into American LNG infrastructure as the U.S. seeks to establish itself as the world’s leading exporter. U.S. regulators have approved the first offshore LNG export terminal ever licensed in American waters, clearing the way for Delfin Midstream’s $5-billion floating LNG project off the coast of Louisiana. The project will initially export 4.4 million tonnes per year beginning around 2030 before expanding to 13.2 million tonnes annually across three floating liquefaction vessels, consuming roughly 1.8 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. Biden rejected the project in 2024, but Trump revived it under its energy dominance agenda, granting both the deepwater port license and export authorization. Samsung Heavy Industries will build the floating facilities, which will be located about 40 miles offshore near Cameron Parish. India and the UAE are moving to increase UAE-linked strategic oil storage capacity in India from 5.8 million barrels to 30 million barrels, a more than fivefold expansion that would dramatically increase New Delhi’s ability to withstand future supply disruptions. The initiative follows agreements signed during Modi’s recent visit to Abu Dhabi and comes as the Hormuz crisis lays bare India’s heavy dependence on crude imports (India imports ~88% of its oil needs). Officials are considering a combination of new storage facilities, expanded underground caverns and commercial arrangements that would allow stored crude to be sold domestically or exported under the right market conditions. The two countries are also exploring strategic gas reserves and potential storage arrangements at Fujairah.