Stocks Retreat as Oil Prices Surge and Inflation Accelerates

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 307 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) are down sharply by -5% today on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could soon be reopened as geopolitical tensions ease. President Trump called off a planned attack on Iran, and Iran suggested negotiations to get more ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz were making progress. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a call with President Trump over the weekend and "stressed the need to prioritize dialogue to reduce escalation and the importance of making every possible effort to achieve calm." Dovish comments today from New York Fed President John Williams were supportive for stocks and bonds, as he said interest rates remain well positioned and inflation should ease during the second half of the year. On the negative side, US June construction spending unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase. Stocks extended their gains today on signs of strength in the US economy after the July ISM manufacturing index rose by +2.3 to 55.6, stronger than expectations of 53.9 and the fastest pace of expansion in four years. Stock indices are moving higher today, with the S&P 500 posting a 2.5-week high, the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 3.5-week high, and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 1-week high. Stocks are gaining as the latest signs of easing tensions in the Middle East push crude oil prices sharply lower and allay fears about faster inflation. The slump in crude oil also knocked bond yields lower and supported stocks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -5 bp to 4.68%. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +1.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +1.081%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.40%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +1.11%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +1.33%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 63% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 4-week high and is up +1.19%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.59%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.94%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +14 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -5.3 bp to 4.682%. Sep T-notes are climbing today amid today's slump of more than -5% in WTI crude oil prices, suppressing inflation expectations. T-notes also gained support today after the US Treasury said it will allow Japan to use the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities Repo Facility, which will allow the BOJ to use its Treasury holdings as collateral to access dollars, rather than sell the bonds on the open market to raise cash for yen intervention. European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -6.4 bp to 3.142%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -9.8 bp to 4.952%. The Eurozone July S&P manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.1 to 51.9 from the originally reported 52.0. German June retail sales fell -1.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and the biggest decline in 13 months. The markets are discounting an 87% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at their next policy meeting on September 10. US Stock Movers The Magnificent Seven stocks, sans Apple, are moving higher today, a bullish factor for the broader market. Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +5%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) is up more than +4%. Also, Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA) are up more than +3%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators are moving higher with today's -5% plunge in crude oil prices. American Airlines Group (AAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Alaska Air Group (ALK) are up more than +6%. Also, Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are up more than +4%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is up more than +3%. In addition, Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) are up more than +2%. Software stocks are climbing today to provide support to the overall market. Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +5%, and ServiceNow (NOW) is up more than +3%. Also, Salesforce (CRM) and Datadog (DDOG) are up more than +2%. In addition, Workday (WDAY), Atlassian Corp (TEAM) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) are up more than +1%. Atkore (ATKR) is up more than +28% after Prysmian agreed to acquire the company for $3.8 billion, or about $95 a share. CNH Industrial (CNH) is up more than +13% after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to 41 cents to 46 cents from a previous forecast of 35 cents to 45 cents, above the consensus of 41 cents. Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) is up more than +9% after agreeing to combine with Indivior Pharmaceuticals in a tax-free all-stock merger of equals. Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) is up more than +8% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the stock will replace Electronic Arts in the S&P 500 before the opening of trading on Wednesday, August 5. Boeing (BA) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after BNP Paribas double-upgraded the stock to outperform from underperform. Corning (GLW) is up more than +3% after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $175. GameStop (GME) is down more than -12% after announcing plans to exchange about $1.4 billion in outstanding convertible senior notes for shares of its common stock with certain existing shareholders. Krystal Biotech (KRYS) is down more than -8% after reporting Q2 net product revenues of $119.2 million, weaker than the consensus of $122.3 million. Fair Isaac (FICO) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to peer perform from outperform. Marriott International (MAR) is down more than -6% after reporting Q2 revenue of $7.07 billion, weaker than the consensus of $7.22 billion. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is down more than -5% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $38. eBay (EBAY) is down more than -4% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $92. Earnings Reports (8/3/2026) Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK/A), Clorox Co/The (CLX), Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG), EchoStar Corp (ECHO), Loews Corp (L), Marriott International Inc/MD (MAR), ON Semiconductor Corp (ON), ONEOK Inc (OKE), Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR), SBA Communications Corp (SBAC), TKO Group Holdings Inc (TKO), Tyson Foods Inc (TSN), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX), Williams Cos Inc/The (WMB). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 307 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) are down sharply by -6% today on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could soon be reopened as geopolitical tensions ease. President Trump called off a planned attack on Iran, and Iran suggested negotiations to get more ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz were making progress. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a call with President Trump over the weekend and "stressed the need to prioritize dialogue to reduce escalation and the importance of making every possible effort to achieve calm." Dovish comments today from New York Fed President John Williams were supportive for stocks and bonds, as he said interest rates remain well positioned and inflation should ease during the second half of the year. On the negative side, chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are weighed down on negative carryover from a -5% decline in South Korea's Kospi Index on Monday after South Korean chipmakers tumbled. Stock indices are moving higher today, with the S&P 500 posting a 2-week high and the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 3.5-week high. Stocks are gaining as the latest signs of easing tensions in the Middle East push crude oil prices sharply lower and allay fears about faster inflation. The slump in crude oil also knocked bond yields lower and supported stocks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -5 bp to 4.68%. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.84%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +1.21%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.47%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.90%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +0.50%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 63% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 4-week high and is up +0.75%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.59%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.94%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +14 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -4.7 bp to 4.688%. Sep T-notes are climbing today amid today's slump of more than -6% in WTI crude oil prices, suppressing inflation expectations. T-notes also gained support today after the US Treasury said it will allow Japan to use the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities Repo Facility, which will allow the BOJ to use its Treasury holdings as collateral to access dollars, rather than sell the bonds on the open market to raise cash for yen intervention. European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -6.7 bp to 3.139%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -10.1 bp to 4.949%. The Eurozone July S&P manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.1 to 51.9 from the originally reported 52.0. German June retail sales fell -1.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and the biggest decline in 13 months. The markets are discounting an 87% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at their next policy meeting on September 10. US Stock Movers Airline stocks and cruise line operators are moving higher with today's -6% plunge in crude oil prices. American Airlines Group (AAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Alaska Air Group (ALK) are up more than +5%. Also, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is up more than +4%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Carnival (CCL), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) are up more than +3%. Software stocks are climbing today to provide support to the overall market. Atlassian Corp (TEAM) and ServiceNow (NOW) are up more than +6%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Adobe Systems (ADBE), Oracle (ORCL), Salesforce (CRM), and Workday (WDAY) are up more than +4%, and Autodesk (ADSK) and Intuit (INTU) are up more than +3%. In addition, Datadog (DDOG) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) are up more than +2%. Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are under pressure today, weighing on the overall market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX) is down more than -3%. Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is down more than -6%, and Western Digital (WDC) and ARM Holdings (ARM) are down more than -5%. Also, Lam Research (LRCX), Micron Technology (MU), Marvel Technology (MRVL), and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) are down more than -4%, and Analog Devices (ADI), Broadcom (AVGO), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -3%. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are down more than -2%. Energy producers and service providers are falling today, with WTI crude oil prices down more than -6%. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is down more than -3%, and APA Corp (APA), Devon Energy (DVN), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Haliburton (HAL), SLB Ltd (SLB), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -2%. Also, Baker Hughes (BKR), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Chevron (CVX) are down more than -1%. Atkore (ATKR) is up more than +28% after Prysmian agreed to acquire the company for $3.8 billion, or about $95 a share. CNH Industrial (CNH) is up more than +16% after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to 41 cents to 46 cents from a previous forecast of 35 cents to 45 cents, above the consensus of 41 cents. Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) is up more than +9% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the stock will replace Electronic Arts in the S&P 500 before the opening of trading on Wednesday, August 5. Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) is up more than +7% after agreeing to combine with Indivior Pharmaceuticals in a tax-free all-stock merger of equals. GameStop (GME) is down more than -11% after announcing plans to exchange about $1.4 billion in outstanding convertible senior notes for shares of its common stock with certain existing shareholders. Krystal Biotech (KRYS) is down more than -7% after reporting Q2 net product revenues of $119.2 million, weaker than the consensus of $122.3 million. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is down more than -6% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $38. Marriott International (MAR) is down more than -5% after reporting Q2 revenue of $7.07 billion, weaker than the consensus of $7.22 billion. eBay (EBAY) is down more than -2% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $92. Earnings Reports (8/3/2026) Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK/A), Clorox Co/The (CLX), Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG), EchoStar Corp (ECHO), Loews Corp (L), Marriott International Inc/MD (MAR), ON Semiconductor Corp (ON), ONEOK Inc (OKE), Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR), SBA Communications Corp (SBAC), TKO Group Holdings Inc (TKO), Tyson Foods Inc (TSN), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX), Williams Cos Inc/The (WMB). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

US Q2 GDP rose +1.5% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of +2.0%, despite Q2 personal consumption rising +3.2%, stronger than expectations of +2.3%. The Q2 core PCE price index eased to +3.4% from +4.4% in Q1, a slower pace of increase than expectations of +3.5%. The US Jun core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, eased to +3.3% y/y from +3.4% y/y in May, right on expectations. US Jun personal spending rose +0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m, although May personal spending was revised upward to +0.9% m/m from the previously reported +0.7% m/m. Jun personal income rose +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Today's US economic news was mixed for stocks, with Q2 GDP growth below expectations despite strong consumer spending, but weekly jobless claims rose less than expected and the core PCE price index eased as expected. On the negative side, Meta Platforms is down more than -8% after a disappointing revenue forecast. Also, bond yields are rising on concerns that Fed Chair Warsh won't manage to curb inflation that has run above target for five straight years after the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2 bp to 4.66%. Stock indexes are rallying sharply today after strong growth at Microsoft reassured investors that massive spending on artificial intelligence is starting to pay off. Microsoft is up more than +13% after reporting late Wednesday that Q4 Azure and other cloud services revenue ex-forex rose +43%, better than the consensus of +39.3% and the fastest quarterly growth in four years. Microsoft's positive earnings are also fueling a sharp rally in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks, pushing the overall market even higher. The markets will get another look at megacap earnings when Amazon.com and Apple report after today's close. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.86%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.29%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +2.65%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.84%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +2.69%. Story Continues Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) gave up an overnight advance and turned lower amid hopes for progress toward a diplomatic solution to the war in the Middle East. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said today that negotiations between the US and Iran are "ongoing" to restore stability, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping through the strait has picked up in recent days, with the US claiming its navy escorted some tankers across the waterway. Tensions remain high in the Middle East as the US maintains its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. US Central Command said today that the US launched airstrikes against dozens of military targets in Iran aimed at degrading Iran's ability to threaten US troops. Iran retaliated by launching drones and missiles into Kuwait and Jordan. Also, diplomatic attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appear to be at an impasse. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Oman's proposal for a route through the Strait of Hormuz, with 50% under Iran's control and 50% under Oman's, would not address Iran's concerns and that the inbound passage and part of the outbound channel must be entirely under Iran's control. The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which continue this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. The markets are awaiting results from a raft of megacap technology companies this week, including Microsoft and Meta Platforms today, and Amazon.com and Apple on Thursday. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 243 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. The markets are discounting a 62% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.59%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-week low and closed down -0.62%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.71%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -6 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.3 bp to 4.663%. T-notes are sliding today on reduced safe-haven demand with the sharp rally in stocks. T-notes also have some negative carryover from Wednesday when the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, fueling concern the Fed is behind the curve in addressing inflation, which has been above the Fed's target for more than five years. T-notes recovered from their worst level after today's US economic news showed Q2 GDP growing less than expected and the Jun core PCE price index easing as expected, dovish factors for Fed policy. European government bond yields are mixed today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.0 bp to 3.170%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -3.2 bp to 5.004%. Eurozone Q2 GDP rose +0.4% q/q and +1.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +0.7% y/y. The Eurozone Jul economic confidence indicator rose +1.5 to a 5-month high of 96.9, stronger than expectations of 96.0. The Eurozone Jun unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3%, showing a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of 6.2%. German Jul CPI (EU harmonized) rose to +2.8% y/y from +2.4% y/y in Jun, right on expectations. As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote and said there were "clear signs" that domestic inflationary pressures are easing and "little evidence" so far that the energy shock has stoked wage demands and higher prices elsewhere. The markets are discounting an 84% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at their next policy meeting on September 10. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are rallying sharply today on better-than-expected earnings from Lam Research. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index ($SOX) is up more than +7%. Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is up more than +26% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +22% to lead gainers in the S&P 500. Also, Lam Research (LRCX) is up more than +21%, and Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +15%. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT) and Micron Technology (MU) are up more than +14%, and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel (INTC) are up more than +12%. Finally, Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +10%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) is up more than +7%. Software stocks are tumbling today after recent sharp gains as investors rotate back into chipmakers and exit the software sector. Workday (WDAY) is down more than -9%, and Adobe Systems (ADBE), Atlassian Corp (TEAM), and Intuit (INTU) are down more than -7%. Also, ServiceNow (NOW) and Thomson Reuters (TRI) are down more than -6%, and Salesforce (CRM) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, Autodesk (ADSK) is down more than -5%, and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is down more than -2%. Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) is up more than +29% after raising its full-year revenue forecast to $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion from a previous estimate of $950 million to $1.05 billion, stronger than the consensus of $999.6 million. EMCOR Group (EME) is up more than +18% after reporting Q2revenue of $5.15 billion, well above the consensus of $4.71 billion, and boosting its full-year revenue forecast to $20 billion to $20.5 billion from a previous forecast of $18.5 billion to $19.25 billion, stronger than the consensus of $19 billion. Microsoft (MSFT) is up more than +13% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q4 Azure and other cloud services revenue ex-forex rose +43%, better than the consensus of +39.3% and the fastest quarterly growth in four years. Baxter International (BAX) is up more than +13% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of 56 cents, above the consensus of 37 cents, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $1.95 to $2.15, stronger than the consensus of $1.92. Quanta Services (PWR) is up more than +13% after reporting Q2 revenue of $9.56 billion, well above the consensus of $8.52 billion, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $39.3 billion to $39.7 billion from a previous forecast of $34.7 billion to $35.2 billion, stronger than the consensus of $35.02 billion. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is up more than +11% after reporting Q2 comparable sales rose +2.2%, better than the consensus of +1.33%. Huntington Ingalls (HII) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 sales and service revenue of $3.42 billion, well above the consensus of $3.15 billion. Avery Dennison (AVY) is up more than +6% after reporting Q2 net sales of $2.46 billion, better than the consensus of $2.30 billion. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is down more than -27% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 revenue of $1.29 billion, below the consensus of $1.31 billion, and cutting its full-year product revenue forecast to $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion from a previous forecast of $4.9 billion to $5.3 billion, weaker than the consensus of $5.1 billion. Fair Isaac (FICO) is down more than -15% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 revenue of $674.2 million, weaker than the consensus of $681.8 million, and forecasting full-year revenue of $2.53 billion, below the consensus of $2.56 billion. Crocs (CROX) is down more than -11% after forecasting Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.20 to $3.30, weaker than the consensus of $3.53. Carvana (CVNA) is down more than -10% after forecasting full-year adjusted Ebitda of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $2.99 billion.

Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) gave up an overnight advance and are down more than -1% amid hopes for progress toward a diplomatic solution to the war in the Middle East. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said today that negotiations between the US and Iran are "ongoing" to restore stability, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping through the strait has picked up in recent days, with the US claiming its navy escorted some tankers across the waterway. US Q2 GDP rose +1.5% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of +2.0%, despite Q2 personal consumption rising +3.2%, stronger than expectations of +2.3%. The Q2 core PCE price index eased to +3.4% from +4.4% in Q1, a slower pace of increase than expectations of +3.5%. The US Jun core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, eased to +3.3% y/y from +3.4% y/y in May, right on expectations. US Jun personal spending rose +0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m, although May personal spending was revised upward to +0.9% m/m from the previously reported +0.7% m/m. Jun personal income rose +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Today's US economic news was mixed for stocks with Q2 GDP growth below expectations despite strong consumer spending, but weekly jobless claims rising less than expected and the core PCE price index easing as expected. On the negative side, Meta Platforms is down more than -9% after a disappointing revenue forecast. Also, bond yields are rising on concerns that Fed Chair Warsh won't manage to curb inflation that has run above target for five straight years after the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2 bp to 4.66%. Stock indexes are climbing today as strong growth at Microsoft has reassured investors that massive spending on artificial intelligence is starting to pay off. Microsoft is up more than +15% after reporting late Wednesday that Q4 Azure and other cloud services revenue ex-forex rose +43%, better than the consensus of +39.3% and the fastest quarterly growth in four years. The markets will get another look at megacap earnings when Amazon.com and Apple report after today's close. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +1.12%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.64%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +2.69%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +1.09%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +2.61%. Story Continues Tensions remain high in the Middle East as the US maintains its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. US Central Command said today that the US launched airstrikes against dozens of military targets in Iran aimed at degrading Iran's ability to threaten US troops. Iran retaliated by launching drones and missiles into Kuwait and Jordan. Also, diplomatic attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appear to be at an impasse. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Oman's proposal for a route through the Strait of Hormuz, with 50% under Iran's control and 50% under Oman's, would not address Iran's concerns and that the inbound passage and part of the outbound channel must be entirely under Iran's control. The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which continue this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. The markets are awaiting results from a raft of megacap technology companies this week, including Microsoft and Meta Platforms today, and Amazon.com and Apple on Thursday. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 243 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. The markets are discounting a 59% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.20%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-week low and closed down -0.62%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.71%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -9 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.7 bp to 4.657%. T-notes are sliding today on negative carryover from Wednesday when the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, fueling concern the Fed is behind the curve in addressing inflation, which has been above the Fed's target for more than five years. T-notes recovered from their worst level after today's US economic news showed Q2 GDP growing less than expected and the Jun core PCE price index easing as expected, dovish factors for Fed policy. European government bond yields are mixed today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.3 bp to 3.173%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -3.3 bp to 5.003%. Eurozone Q2 GDP rose +0.4% q/q and +1.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +0.7% y/y. The Eurozone Jul economic confidence indicator rose +1.5 to a 5-month high of 96.9, stronger than expectations of 96.0. The Eurozone Jun unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3%, showing a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of 6.2%. German Jul CPI (EU harmonized) rose to +2.8% y/y from +2.4% y/y in Jun, right on expectations. As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote and said there were "clear signs" that domestic inflationary pressures are easing and "little evidence" so far that the energy shock has stoked wage demands and higher prices elsewhere. The markets are discounting an 85% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at their next policy meeting on September 10. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are rallying today on better-than-expected earnings from Lam Research. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index ($SOX) is up more than +5%. Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is up more than +20% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Lam Research (LRCX) is up more than +18%. Also, Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +16%, and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is up more than +15%. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT) and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +13%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Micron Technology (MU), and Intel (INTC) are up more than +9%. Finally, KLA Corp (KLAC) and ARM Holdings (ARM) are up by more than +7%. Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) is up more than +23% after raising its full-year revenue forecast to $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion from a previous estimate of $950 million to $1.05 billion, stronger than the consensus of $999.6 million. Baxter International (BAX) is up more than +19% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of 56 cents, above the consensus of 37 cents, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $1.95 to $2.15, stronger than the consensus of $1.92. Microsoft (MSFT) is up more than +15% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q4 Azure and other cloud services revenue ex-forex rose +43%, better than the consensus of +39.3% and the fastest quarterly growth in four years. Quanta Services (PWR) is up more than +15% after reporting Q2 revenue of $9.56 billion, well above the consensus of $8.52 billion, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $39.3 billion to $39.7 billion from a previous forecast of $34.7 billion to $35.2 billion, stronger than the consensus of $35.02 billion. Huntington Ingalls (HII) is up more than +8% after reporting Q2 sales and service revenue of $3.42 billion, well above the consensus of $3.15 billion. Fortinet (FTNT) is up more than +3% after reporting Q2 billings of $2.37 billion, better than the consensus of $2.13 billion, and boosting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $3.41 to $3.47 from a previous forecast of $3.16. Starbucks (SBUX) is up more than +2% after reporting Q3 EPS of 85 cents, well above the consensus of 65 cents, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $2.55 to $2.65 from a previous forecast of $2.25 to $2.45, better than the consensus of $2.39. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is down more than -25% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 revenue of $1.29 billion, below the consensus of $1.31 billion, and cutting its full-year product revenue forecast to $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion from a previous forecast of $4.9 billion to $5.3 billion, weaker than the consensus of $5.1 billion. Fair Isaac (FICO) is down more than -13% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 revenue of $674.2 million, weaker than the consensus of $681.8 million, and forecasting full-year revenue of $2.53 billion, below the consensus of $2.56 billion. Crocs (CROX) is down more than -13% after forecasting Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.20 to $3.30, weaker than the consensus of $3.53. Carvana (CVNA) is down more than -10% after forecasting full-year adjusted Ebitda of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $2.99 billion. Meta Platforms (META) is down more than -9% after forecasting Q3 revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $63.17 billion. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) is down more than -8% after cutting its annual forecasts and said bookings for the next 12 months are weak. Earnings Reports (7/30/2026) A O Smith Corp (AOS), Air Products and Chemicals Inc (APD), Alliant Energy Corp (LNT), Altria Group Inc (MO), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN), American Electric Power Co Inc (AEP), Apple Inc (AAPL), Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG), Avery Dennison Corp (AVY), Baxter International Inc (BAX), Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY), Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR), Camden Property Trust (CPT), Cigna Group/The (CI), Coinbase Global Inc (COIN), Corteva Inc (CTVA), CRH PLC (CRH), Dexcom Inc (DXCM), Edison International (EIX), EMCOR

Tensions remain high in the Middle East as the US maintains its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Also, diplomatic attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appear to be at an impasse. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Oman's proposal for a route through the Strait of Hormuz, with 50% under Iran's control and 50% under Oman's, would not address Iran's concerns and that the inbound passage and part of the outbound channel must be entirely under Iran's control. Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) jumped by more than +7% today as the recent lull in hostilities came to an abrupt end after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted a US airbase and command center in Jordan with ballistic missiles. The IRGC also claimed to have hit and halted three tankers attempting to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US and Saudi Arabia launched a joint attack on "Iran-aligned terrorists" in Iraq after the IRGC directed them to target US forces and Saudi energy infrastructure. The markets were little changed following the results of the 2-day FOMC meeting early this afternoon, with policymakers keeping interest rates unchanged in a 9-3 decision. Also, earnings results from Microsoft and Meta Platforms after today's close will be looked at to see whether the vast spending behind the buildout of artificial intelligence can deliver adequate returns. The 10-year T-note yield is up +4 bp to 4.64%. Stock indexes are falling today, with the S&P 500 sliding to a 1-month low and the Nasdaq 100 sinking to a 3-month low. Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are selling off today, leading the overall market lower. Also, heightened geopolitical risks are weighing on stocks as crude prices surged, and bond yields jumped when President Trump said the US will "hit Iran hard" after a recent attack from Iran that targeted a US base in Jordan. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.71%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -1.53%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.98%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.75%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -1.03%. Story Continues US MBA mortgage applications fell -6.4% in the week ended July 24, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -3.6% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -9.9%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +7 bp to an 11.5-month high of 6.76% from 6.69% the prior week. The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which continue this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. The markets are awaiting results from a raft of megacap technology companies this week, including Microsoft and Meta Platforms today, and Amazon.com and Apple on Thursday. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 87% of the 216 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. The markets are discounting a 34% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the conclusion of today's FOMC meeting. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.73%. China's Shanghai Composite rebounded from a 1-week low and closed up +0.40%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average fell to a 2.25-month low and closed down -1.49%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -9 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.0 bp to 4.637%. T-notes are under pressure today from a +7% surge in crude oil prices, which raises inflation expectations and is hawkish for Fed policy. Also, long liquidation and position evening are weighing on T-notes ahead of the FOMC's interest rate decision later today. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +5.0 bp to 3.154%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +7.7 bp to 5.021%. The German Jun import price index eased to 6.1% y/y from 6.8% y/y in May. The markets are discounting an 88% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are sharply lower today, weighing on the broader market. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index ($SOX) dropped to a 2.5-month low and is down more than -3%. Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and KLA Corp (KLAC) and Sandisk (SNDK) are down more than -7%. Also, Applied Materials (AMAT), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and ARM Holdings (ARM) are down by more than -5%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is down more than -4%. In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL), Lam Research (LRCX), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are down more than -3%, and Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -2%. Trucking and freight companies are under pressure today from soaring crude oil prices. ArcBest (ARCB) is down more than -7%, and Saia Inc (SAIA), FedEx Freight Holding (FDXF), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), and CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) are down more than -2%. Also, Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX), and XPO Inc (XPO) are down more than -1%. Airline stocks are sliding today with the surge in crude oil prices. Alaska Air Group (ALK) is down more than -3%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are down more than -2%. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) are down more than -1%. Energy producers and service providers are climbing today, with crude oil prices up by more than +7%. Diamondback Energy (FANG) is up more than +4%, and ConocoPhillips (COP), APA Corp (APA), Devon Energy (DVN), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are up more than +3%. Also, Baker Hughes (BKR) and Chevron (CVX) are up more than +2%, and Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +1%. Lennox International (LII) is down more than -19% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.55 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.56 billion. Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is down more than -13% after reporting Q2 net sales of $3.27 billion, below the consensus of $3.39 billion. Avis Budget Group (CAR) is down more than -11% after reporting Q2 EPS of 98 cents, well below the consensus of $1.91. Masco Corp (MAS) is down more than -10% after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.99 billion, weaker than the consensus of $2.08 billion. Caterpillar (CAT) is down more than -6% to lead losers in the Dow Jones industrials after Baird downgraded the stock to neutral from outperform, citing a growing trend of state and local government actions targeting data centers, a key growth driver for the company. Humana (HUM) is down more than -6% after it maintained its full-year profit outlook despite posting better-than-expected Q2 profit. Garmin Ltd (GRMN) is up more than +17% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 revenue of $2.02 billion, above the consensus of $1.92 billion, and raising its full-year revenue estimate to $8.05 billion from a previous estimate of $7.90 billion, stronger than the consensus of $7.99 billion. GE Healthcare (GEHC) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.13, better than the consensus of $1.04. Amphenol (APH) is up more than +6% after reporting Q2 net sales of $8.76 billion, better than the consensus of $8.31 billion. Teradyne (TER) is up more than +5% after reporting Q2 net revenue of $1.33 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.22 billion. Ford Motor (F) is up more than +5% after raising its full-year adjusted EBIT to $10 billion to $11 billion from a previous forecast of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion. Earnings Reports (7/29/2026) Align Technology Inc (ALGN), American Water Works Co Inc (AWK), Amphenol Corp (APH), Aon PLC (AON), Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP), Biogen Inc (BIIB), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), Bunge Global SA (BG), Carvana Co (CVNA), CBRE Group Inc (CBRE), CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Electronic Arts Inc (EA), Entergy Corp (ETR), Equinix Inc (EQIX), Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS), Everest Group Ltd (EG), Fair Isaac Corp (FICO), Flex Ltd (FLEX), Fortinet Inc (FTNT), Fortive Corp (FTV), Garmin Ltd (GRMN), GE HealthCare Technologies Inc (GEHC), Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Humana Inc (HUM), IDEX Corp (IEX), Invitation Homes Inc (INVH), Johnson Controls International (JCI), L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX), Lam Research Corp (LRCX), Lennox International Inc (LII), Masco Corp (MAS), Meta Platforms Inc (META), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL), O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY), Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG), PTC Inc (PTC), Public Storage (PSA), QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM), Regency Centers Corp (REG), Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD), Smurfit Westrock PLC (SW), Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK), Starbucks Corp (SBUX), Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL), Ventas Inc (VTR), Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK), Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT), VICI Properties Inc (VICI), Vulcan Materials Co (VMC), Waste Management Inc (WM), WEC Energy Group Inc (WEC). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

US MBA mortgage applications fell -6.4% in the week ended July 24, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -3.6% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -9.9%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +7 bp to an 11.5-month high of 6.76% from 6.69% the prior week. Tensions remain high in the Middle East as the US maintains its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Also, diplomatic attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appear to be at an impasse. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Oman's proposal for a route through the Strait of Hormuz, with 50% under Iran's control and 50% under Oman's, would not address Iran's concerns and that the inbound passage and part of the outbound channel must be entirely under Iran's control. Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) jumped by more than +6% today as the recent lull in hostilities came to an abrupt end after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted a US airbase and command center in Jordan with ballistic missiles. The IRGC also claimed to have hit and halted three tankers attempting to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US and Saudi Arabia launched a joint attack on "Iran-aligned terrorists" in Iraq after the IRGC directed them to target US forces and Saudi energy infrastructure. Stock indexes turned lower today as crude prices surged, and bond yields jumped after President Trump said the US will "hit Iran hard" after a recent attack from Iran that targeted a US base in Jordan. The markets are awaiting the results of the 2-day FOMC meeting that ends early this afternoon, with policymakers expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Also, earnings results from Microsoft and Meta Platforms after today's close will be looked at to see whether the vast spending behind the buildout of artificial intelligence can deliver adequate returns. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3 bp to 4.63%. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.85%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.23%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.25%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -0.30%. Story Continues The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which continue this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. The markets are awaiting results from a raft of megacap technology companies this week, including Microsoft and Meta Platforms today, and Amazon.com and Apple on Thursday. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 170 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. The markets are discounting a 36% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the conclusion of today's FOMC meeting. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.48%. China's Shanghai Composite rebounded from a 1-week low and closed up +0.40%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average fell to a 2.25-month low and closed down -1.49%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -8 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.6 bp to 4.633%. T-notes are under pressure today from a +6% surge in crude oil prices, which raises inflation expectations and is hawkish for Fed policy. Also, long liquidation and position evening are weighing on T-notes ahead of the FOMC's interest rate decision later today. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +3.2 bp to 3.136%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +5.3 bp to 4.997%. The German Jun import price index eased to 6.1% y/y from 6.8% y/y in May. The markets are discounting an 88% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are moving lower today, weighing on the broader market. Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Sandisk (SNDK) is down more than -6%. Also, Applied Materials (AMAT) and KLA Corp (KLAC) are down by more than -4%, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) and ARM Holdings (ARM) are down by more than -3%. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Micron Technology (MU), Lam Research (LRCX), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are down more than -2%. Trucking and freight companies are under pressure today from soaring crude oil prices. ArcBest (ARCB) is down more than -4%, and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and Saia Inc (SAIA) are down more than -2%. Also, FedEx Freight Holding (FDXF), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), and XPO Inc (XPO) are down more than -1%. Airline stocks are sliding today with the surge in crude oil prices. Alaska Air Group (ALK) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are down more than -2%, and American Airlines Group (AAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are down more than -1%. Energy producers and service providers are climbing today, with crude oil prices up by more than +6%. ConocoPhillips (COP), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +3%, and APA Corp (APA), Chevron (CVX), Devon Energy (DVN), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Phillips 66 (PSX) are up more than +2%. Also, SLB Ltd (SLB), Baker Hughes (BKR), and Haliburton (HAL) are up more than +1%. Lennox International (LII) is down more than -13% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.55 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.56 billion. Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is down more than -8% after reporting Q2 net sales of $3.27 billion, below the consensus of $3.39 billion. CoStar Group (CSGP) is down more than -8% after reporting Q2 revenue of $925 million, weaker than the consensus of $929.4 million. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) is down more than -7% after forecasting Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.27, below the consensus of $1.29. Avis Budget Group (CAR) is down more than -6% after reporting Q2 EPS of 98 cents, well below the consensus of $1.91. Caterpillar (CAT) is down more than -2% after Baird downgraded the stock to neutral from outperform, citing a growing trend of state and local government actions targeting data centers, a key growth driver for the company. Teradyne (TER) is up more than +13% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 net revenue of $1.33 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.22 billion. GE Healthcare (GEHC) is up more than +10% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.13, better than the consensus of $1.04. Garmin Ltd (GRMN) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 revenue of $2.02 billion, above the consensus of $1.92 billion, and raising its full-year revenue estimate to $8.05 billion from a previous estimate of $7.90 billion, stronger than the consensus of $7.99 billion. Bloom Energy (BE) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 revenue of $1.07 billion, stronger than the consensus of $838.7 million, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion from a previous forecast of $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion, above the consensus of $3.74 billion. Generac Holdings (GNRC) is up more than +5% after raising its full-year adjusted Ebitda margin to 20% to 21% from a previous estimate of 18.5% to 19.5%, better than the consensus of 19.2%. Ford Motor (F) is up more than +4% after raising its full-year adjusted EBIT to $10 billion to $11 billion from a previous forecast of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion. Earnings Reports (7/29/2026) Align Technology Inc (ALGN), American Water Works Co Inc (AWK), Amphenol Corp (APH), Aon PLC (AON), Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP), Biogen Inc (BIIB), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), Bunge Global SA (BG), Carvana Co (CVNA), CBRE Group Inc (CBRE), CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Electronic Arts Inc (EA), Entergy Corp (ETR), Equinix Inc (EQIX), Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS), Everest Group Ltd (EG), Fair Isaac Corp (FICO), Flex Ltd (FLEX), Fortinet Inc (FTNT), Fortive Corp (FTV), Garmin Ltd (GRMN), GE HealthCare Technologies Inc (GEHC), Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Humana Inc (HUM), IDEX Corp (IEX), Invitation Homes Inc (INVH), Johnson Controls International (JCI), L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX), Lam Research Corp (LRCX), Lennox International Inc (LII), Masco Corp (MAS), Meta Platforms Inc (META), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL), O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY), Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG), PTC Inc (PTC), Public Storage (PSA), QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM), Regency Centers Corp (REG), Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD), Smurfit Westrock PLC (SW), Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK), Starbucks Corp (SBUX), Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL), Ventas Inc (VTR), Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK), Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT), VICI Properties Inc (VICI), Vulcan Materials Co (VMC), Waste Management Inc (WM), WEC Energy Group Inc (WEC). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which continue this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. The markets are waiting for results from a raft of megacap technology companies this week, including Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 135 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. However, tensions remain high in the Middle East as President Trump has raised the possibility of intensified action against Iran. Also, Houthi militants in Yemen claimed to have struck facilities linked to Saudi Aramco in the Red Sea port towns of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday. Yanbu, the western end of the East-West pipeline, has become Saudi's key crude export outlet since the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been shut off by the war. Jizan is home to a refinery and export terminal along the Red Sea. Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) are down more than -6% today, as tensions eased in the Middle East after the US held off against further airstrikes on Iran for a third straight day and Iran signaled it was refraining from any retaliation as it held negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. Today's US economic news shows strength in the economy and is supportive of stocks after US Jun capital goods new orders, nondefense ex-aircraft, rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.7% m/m. Stocks initially jumped today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting a 1-week high after the US and Iran held off attacks on one another for a third straight day, easing geopolitical risks, pushing crude oil prices down sharply, and helping lift global stock and bond markets. On Sunday, Mike Waltz, US ambassador to the United Nations, said the US is giving diplomacy "some space." The plunge in crude oil prices today has knocked the 10-year T-note yield down -3 bp to 4.65%. Stock indexes gave up early gains today and are trading mixed, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 2.5-month low. The weakness in chipmakers is weighing on the broader market as investors rotate out of semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks and into beaten-down sectors, such as software. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.54%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.46%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.11%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down +0.40%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 38% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Tue/Wed. Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 2.5-week high and is up +0.39%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.15% on Friday. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.50%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.4 bp to 4.653%. T-notes are moving higher amid today's -6% plunge in crude oil prices, which eases inflation expectations. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 3-week low of 2.221% today. Supply pressures are limiting the upside in T-notes as the Treasury will auction $183 billion of T-notes today and tomorrow, beginning with a $69 billion auction of 2-year T-notes and a $70 billion auction of 5-year T-notes later today. European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -4.6 bp to 3.126%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -4.9 bp to 4.983%. The German Jul IFO business confidence index rose +0.9 to a 5-month high of 86.6, stronger than expectations of 86.0. ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said "he remains of the view that the ECB will have to raise interest rates at least one more time" to ensure that inflation risks don't spin out of control. The markets are discounting an 89% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are falling today, weighing on the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is down more than -3% at a 1-week low. Sandisk (SNDK) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Western Digital (WDC) are down more than -6%. Also, Lam Research (LRCX), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Micron Technology (MU), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) are down more than -5%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) is down more than -4%. In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL) is down more than -3%, and Intel (INTC) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are down more than -2%. Energy producers and service providers are sliding today amid the -6% decline in crude oil prices. ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are down more than -2%. Also, Haliburton (HAL), APA Corp (APA), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), and Chevron (CVX) are down more than -1%. MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT) is down more than -64% after posting results from a mid-stage trial of its experimental therapy to treat schizophrenia, which Stifel said did not meet the "upside case" scenario. Nvidia (NVDA) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after announcing it had made a "substantial" investment in AI startup Safe Superintelligence. Software stocks are rallying today, a supportive factor for the overall market. Workday (WDAY) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Atlassian (TEAM) is up more than +7%. Also, Autodesk (ADSK) and Oracle (ORCL) are up more than +5%, and Salesforce (CRM) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, Adobe (ADBE) is up more than +4%, and ServiceNow (NOW), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), and Intuit (INTU) are up more than +3%. Finally, Microsoft (MSFT) is up by more than +2%, and Datadog (DDOG) is up by more than +1%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators are climbing today with the -6% plunge in crude oil prices. Alaska Air Group (ALK), Carnival (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are up more than +2%. Also, United Airlines Holdings (UAL), American Airlines Group (AAL), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are up more than +1%. Also, Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up +0.53%. Forte Biosciences (FBRX) is up more than +39% after Argenx SE agreed to buy the company for about $2.2 billion, or $77 a share. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) is up more than +16% after Benchmark Company LLC reinstated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $30. IonQ (IONQ) is up more than +7% after Benchmark Company LLC reinstated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $60. Baker Hughes (BKR) is up more than +6% after reporting Q2 revenue of $6.74 billion, better than the consensus of $6.51 billion. Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB) is up more than +2% after KGI Securities upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $107. Earnings Reports (7/27/2026) Rambus Inc (RMBS), Welltower Inc (WELL), Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC), Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), UDR Inc (UDR), Sanmina Corp (SANM), Nucor Corp (NUE), Sun Communities Inc (SUI), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR), F5 Inc (FFIV), Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF), Element Solutions Inc (ESI), Applied Digital Corp (APLD), Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS), Brixmor Property Group Inc (BRX). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which continue this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. The markets are waiting for results from a raft of megacap technology companies this week, including Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 135 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. However, tensions remain high in the Middle East as President Trump has raised the possibility of intensified action against Iran. Also, Houthi militants in Yemen claimed to have struck facilities linked to Saudi Aramco in the Red Sea port towns of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday. Yanbu, the western end of the East-West pipeline, has become Saudi's key crude export outlet since the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been shut off by the war. Jizan is home to a refinery and export terminal along the Red Sea. Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) are down more than -5% today, as tensions eased in the Middle East after the US held off against further airstrikes on Iran for a third straight day and Iran signaled it was refraining from any retaliation as it held negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. Today's US economic news shows strength in the economy and is supportive for stocks after US Jun capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft, and parts rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.7% m/m. Stock indexes are moving higher today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting a 1-week high after the US and Iran held off attacks on one another for a third straight day, easing geopolitical risks, pushing crude oil prices down sharply, and helping lift global stock and bond markets. On Sunday, Mike Waltz, US ambassador to the United Nations, said the US is giving diplomacy "some space." Stocks tied to the global buildout of artificial intelligence, from chipmakers to electrical equipment manufacturers, are leading the broader market higher today. The plunge in crude oil prices today has knocked the 10-year T-note yield down -3 bp to 4.65%. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +1.08%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.56%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.65%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +0.60%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 34% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Tue/Wed. Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 2.5-week high and is up +1.12%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.15% on Friday. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.50%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +6 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.6 bp to 4.651%. T-notes are moving higher amid today's -6% plunge in crude oil prices, which eases inflation expectations. Supply pressures are limiting the upside in T-notes as the Treasury will auction $183 billion of T-notes today and tomorrow, beginning with a $69 billion auction of 2-year T-notes and a $70 billion auction of 5-year T-notes later today. European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -3.8 bp to 3.134%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -3.9 bp to 4.993%. The German Jul IFO business confidence index rose +0.9 to a 5-month high of 86.6, stronger than expectations of 86.0. ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said "he remains of the view that the ECB will have to raise interest rates at least one more time" to ensure that inflation risks don't spin out of control. The markets are discounting an 88% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10. US Stock Movers Software stocks are rallying today, a supportive factor for the overall market. Atlassian (TEAM) and Workday (WDAY) are up more than +6%, and Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +5%. Also, ServiceNow (NOW), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), and Datadog (DDOG) are up more than +3%. In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) and Intuit (INTU) are up more than +2%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators are climbing today with the plunge in crude oil prices. Alaska Air Group (ALK) and Carnival (CCL) are up more than +4%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are up more than +3%. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) are up more than +2%. Energy producers and service providers are sliding today, with the -5% plunge in crude oil prices. ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), Devon Energy (DVN), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are down more than -2%. Also, Haliburton (HAL), APA Corp (APA), and Chevron (CVX) are down more than -1%. Forte Biosciences (FBRX) is up more than +39% after Argenx SE agreed to buy the company for about $2.2 billion, or $77 a share. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) is up more than +16% after Benchmark Company LLC reinstated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $30. IonQ (IONQ) is up more than +12% after Benchmark Company LLC reinstated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $60. Baker Hughes (BKR) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 revenue of $6.74 billion, better than the consensus of $6.51 billion. Mobileye Global (MBLY) is up more than +9% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $12. Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB) is up more than +6% after KGI Securities upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $107. MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT) is down more than -66% after posting results from a mid-stage trial of its experimental therapy to treat schizophrenia, which Stifel said did not meet the "upside case" scenario. Nvidia (NVDA) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after announcing it had made a "substantial" investment in AI startup Safe Superintelligence. Earnings Reports (7/27/2026) Rambus Inc (RMBS), Welltower Inc (WELL), Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC), Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), UDR Inc (UDR), Sanmina Corp (SANM), Nucor Corp (NUE), Sun Communities Inc (SUI), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR), F5 Inc (FFIV), Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF), Element Solutions Inc (ESI), Applied Digital Corp (APLD), Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS), Brixmor Property Group Inc (BRX). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

Also, the Joint Maritime Information Center, a monitoring body for naval security, said the Iran-backed Houthi rebels have deployed missiles and drones in preparation for attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation's ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi's are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt. President Trump said Tuesday that if there is a blockade in the Red Sea, the US "will take care of it." The US conducted an 11th straight day of attacks on Iran today in an effort to degrade the country's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. President Trump said on Tuesday that the US has "no interest" in meeting with Iran until they are ready for serious peace negotiations. Soaring WTI crude oil (CLU26) prices are also pushing bond yields higher and are weighing on stocks. Crude oil is up more than +2% today to a 6-week high after the US and Iran played down the prospects of peace talks as disruptions to global oil supplies continued to mount. The 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 2-month high of 4.65% today amid rising crude oil prices. Stock indexes are under pressure today amid weakness in software and cybersecurity stocks. The markets are waiting for earnings results after the close today from Alphabet to see evidence that the company's investments in artificial intelligence are generating returns, as it plans to more than double capital spending from 2025 to as much as $190 billion this year. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.13%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.48%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.10%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -0.47%. Story Continues US MBA mortgage applications rose +1.9% in the week ended July 17, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +5.5% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -2.4%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +4 bp to an 11-month high of 6.69% from 6.65% in the prior week. The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which begin in earnest this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive as 91% of the S&P 500 companies that reported Q2 earnings results have beaten estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The markets are discounting a 26% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 2-week high and is up +0.46%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.07%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.18%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -2 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +1.2 bp at 4.640%. Sep T-notes slid to a 1-week low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2-month high of 4.650%. T-notes are sliding today, with WTI crude oil prices up more than +2% to a 6-week high, which raises inflation expectations and is a hawkish factor for Fed policy. Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $13 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 2-month high of 3.192% and is up +1.7 bp to 3.180%. The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 2-month high of 5.064% and is up +1.3 bp to 5.043%. UK Jun CPI eased to +2.6% y/y from +3.8% y/y in May, weaker than expectations of +2.7% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 15 months. However, Jun core CPI was unchanged from May at +2.6% y/y, stronger than the +2.5% y/y expected. Swaps are discounting a 5% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on Thursday. US Stock Movers Software stocks are under pressure today, weighing on the broader market. ServiceNow (NOW), Workday (WDAY), Datadog (DDOG), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) are down more than -3%. Also, Atlassian Corp (TEAM) is down more than -2%, and Autodesk (ADSK), Microsoft (MSFT), and Salesforce (CRM) are down more than -1%. Cybersecurity stocks are sliding today. Zscaler (ZS) is down more than -2%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Okta (OKTA) are down more than -2%. Also, Cloudflare (NET) and Fortinet (FTNT) are down more than -1%. Pegasystems (PEGA) is down more than -12% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of 35 cents, weaker than the consensus of 44 cents. Reddit (RDDT) is down more than -9% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company has discussed cutting off Google's access to its content for AI use. GE Vernova (GEV) is down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 adjusted Ebitda of $1.25 billion, below the consensus of $1.29 billion. TE Connectivity Plc (TEL) is down more than -6% after announcing it entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Astrodyne TDI for about $1.4 billion. Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) is down more than -5% after reporting Q4 net sales of $552.6 million, weaker than the consensus of $594.5 million. Otis Worldwide (OTIS) is down more than -2% after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $4.01 to $4.05 from a previous estimate of $4.20 to $4.24, below the consensus of $4.19. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is up more than +18% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after saying its backlog rose to record levels at the end of 2026 with total new orders in excess of $60 billion received during Q4. AT&T (T) is up more than +4% after reporting Q2 wireless postpaid phone net additions of +432,000, well above the consensus of +325,264. Oklo (OKLO) is up more than +3%, and X-Energy (XE) is up more than +2% after Bloomberg News reported that the companies will join the US program to speed up development of new power plants for artificial intelligence data centers. Teledyne (TDY) is up more than +2% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $6.28, well above the consensus of $5.79, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $24.45 to $24.65 from a previous estimate of $23.85 to $24.15, above the consensus of $24.18. DigitalOcean Holdings (DOCN) is up more than +1% after Stifel upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $160. Earnings Reports(7/22/2026) Alphabet Inc (GOOGL), AT&T Inc (T), AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB), CME Group Inc (CME), Crown Castle Inc (CCI), CSX Corp (CSX), EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP), Equity LifeStyle Properties Inc (ELS), Equity Residential (EQR), First American Financial Corp (FAF), First Industrial Realty Trust (FR), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), Globe Life Inc (GL), Graco Inc (GGG), International Business Machine (IBM), Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI), Knight-Swift Transportation Ho (KNX), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP), Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH), Moody's Corp (MCO), Northern Trust Corp (NTRS), Otis Worldwide Corp (OTIS), Packaging Corp of America (PKG), Philip Morris International Inc (PM), Pinnacle Financial Partners In (PNFP), PulteGroup Inc (PHM), QuantumScape Corp (QS), Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF), Reliance Inc (RS), RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd (RNR), RLI Corp (RLI), Rollins Inc (ROL), RPM International Inc (RPM), SEI Investments Co (SEIC), ServiceNow Inc (NOW), Sonoco Products Co (SON), Southwest Airlines Co (LUV), Stifel Financial Corp (SF), TE Connectivity PLC (TEL), Teledyne Technologies Inc (TDY), Tesla Inc (TSLA), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN), Travel + Leisure Co (TNL), Westinghouse Air Brake Technol (WAB), WEX Inc (WEX), Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc (WH). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.55%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.79%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up sharply by +3.26%. The markets are discounting a 22% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which begin in earnest this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. WTI crude oil (CLQ26) is up more than +2% today at a 5-week high as the US and Iran exchanged strikes for a 10th consecutive day even as mediators sought to revive a truce. The US targeted military command centers, launch sites, and air defenses in Iran today. Meanwhile, Iran attacked US military sites in Kuwait and Jordan. The UK navy also reported Iran struck two vessels around the Strait of Hormuz. Also, Houthi rebels on Monday said they will impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they say is the kingdom's siege on the Yemeni capital, a potential threat to Saudi Arabian crude exports through the Red Sea. Stock indexes are climbing today as Monday's rebound in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks gathers pace. The recent selloff in chipmakers has cheapened valuations and has enticed dip buyers ahead of earnings results of megacap technology stocks this week, beginning with Alphabet and Tesla on Wednesday. On the downside, software stocks are weak after Morgan Stanley downgraded several in the sector. Also, rising crude oil prices are pushing bond yields higher as the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 2-month high of 4.64% today. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.64%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.47%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.58%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.62%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +1.58%. Story Continues Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -6 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +3.0 bp at 4.622%. The 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 2-month high of 4.638% today as the +2% jump in WTI crude oil to a 5-week high is boosting inflation expectations, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. Also, today's strength in stocks has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. Heightened Middle East tensions are supporting safe-haven demand for T-notes after President Trump threatened a disproportionate response for any Americans killed by Iran. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 2-month high of 3.185% and is up +1.9 bp to 3.169%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +0.3 bp to 5.035%. The German Jul ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +15.8 to a 5-month high of 26.3, stronger than expectations of 15.3. Swaps are discounting a 4% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on Thursday. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing today, supporting gains in the overall market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +4%. Teradyne (TER) and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +11%, and Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +10%. Also, Micron Technology (MU) and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) are up more than +9%, and Applied Materials (AMAT) is up more than +7%. In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Intel (INTC) are up more than +6%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) are up more than +5%. Finally, Lam Research (LRCX) is up more than +4%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) and ASML Holding NV (ASML) are up more than +3%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rising to a 5-week high. Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +8%. Also, Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is up more than +6%, and Strategy (MSTR) and MARA Holdings (MARA) are up more than +5%. In addition, Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +4%. Software stocks are under pressure today after Morgan Stanley downgraded Adobe, Intuit, and Workday. Atlassian Corp (TEAM) is down more than -4%, and Thomson Reuters (TRI) and Workday (WDAY) are down more than -2%. Also, Adobe Systems (ADBE), Salesforce (CRM), Autodesk (ADSK), Datadog (DDOG), and ServiceNow (NOW) are down more than -1%. Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is up more than +13% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100after Nvidia reported a 9.3% stake in the company in a 13G filing. 3M Co (MMM) is up more than +9% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.40, stronger than the consensus of $2.25, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.80 to $8.95 from a previous forecast of $8.50 to $8.70. Hasbro (HAS) is up more than +9% after reporting Q2 net revenue of $1.14 billion, better than the consensus of $1.07 billion, and boosting its full-year adjusted Ebitda forecast to $1.45 billion to $1.50 billion from a previous forecast of $1.40 billion to $1.45 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.45 billion. General Motors (GM) is up more than +3% after reporting Q2 net sales of $48.03 billion, stronger than the consensus of $46.61 billion, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $12 to $14 from a previous estimate of $11.50 to $13.50, the midpoint above the consensus of $12.81. Ralph Lauren (RL) is up more than +2% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $410. Danaher (DHR) is down more than -13% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting Q3 non-GAAP core revenue growth of 2.0% to 3.0%, weaker than the consensus of 3.61%. MSCI Inc (MSCI) is down more than -10% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.94, below the consensus of $4.99, and boosting its full-year operating expenses estimate to $1.54 billion to $1.58 billion from a previous estimate of $1.49 billion to $1.53 billion. Equifax (EFX) is down more than -5% after lowering the top end of its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.39 to $8.69 from $8.34 to $8.74. Halliburton (HAL) is down more than -5% after reporting Q2 adjusted operating income of $683 million, weaker than the consensus of $688.7 million. Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) is down more than -4% after announcing it will not advance the development of tebapivat for sickle cell disease following Phase 2 trial results that failed to establish a differentiated profile versus placebo. Earnings Reports(7/21/2026) 3M Co (MMM), Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK), Ally Financial Inc (ALLY), Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY), Bank OZK (OZK), Capital One Financial Corp (COF), Charles Schwab Corp/The (SCHW), Chubb Ltd (CB), Danaher Corp (DHR), DR Horton Inc (DHI), East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC), EQT Corp (EQT), Equifax Inc (EFX), General Motors Co (GM), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Halliburton Co (HAL), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR), KeyCorp (KEY), Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MRSH), MSCI Inc (MSCI), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC), Pegasystems Inc (PEGA), Range Resources Corp (RRC), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Valmont Industries Inc (VMI), Vicor Corp (VICR), Weatherford International PLC (WFRD), Webster Financial Corp (WBS), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.41%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.79%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up sharply by +3.26%. The markets are discounting a 17% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which begin in earnest this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. Crude oil prices are edging higher today but remain below Monday's 5-week high. WTI crude oil (CLQ26) is up more than +1% today as the US and Iran exchanged strikes for a 10th consecutive day even as mediators sought to revive a truce. The US targeted military command centers, launch sites, and air defenses in Iran today. Meanwhile, Iran attacked US military sites in Kuwait and Jordan. The UK navy also reported Iran struck two vessels around the Strait of Hormuz. Also, Houthi rebels on Monday said they will impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they say is the kingdom's siege on the Yemeni capital, a potential threat to Saudi Arabian crude exports through the Red Sea. Stock indexes are climbing today as Monday's rebound in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks gathers pace. The recent selloff in chipmakers has cheapened valuations and has enticed dip buyers ahead of earnings results of megacap technology stocks this week, beginning with Alphabet on Wednesday. On the negative side, software stocks are weak after Morgan Stanley downgraded several stocks in the sector. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.17%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.26%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.35%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +1.27%. Story Continues Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -4 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +2.4 bp at 4.616%. Today's strength in stocks has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. Also, rising crude oil prices today are boosting inflation expectations and weighing on T-notes. Heightened Middle East tensions are supporting safe-haven demand for T-notes after President Trump threatened a disproportionate response for any Americans killed by Iran. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 2-month high of 3.175% and is up +2.4 bp to 3.174%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +0.8 bp to 5.040%. The German Jul ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +15.8 to a 5-month high of 26.3, stronger than expectations of 15.3. Swaps are discounting a 5% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on Thursday. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing today, supporting gains in the overall market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +3%. Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +10% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Teradyne (TER), Micron Technology (MU), and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +8%. Also, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is up more than +7%, and Applied Materials (AMAT), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Intel (INTC) are up more than +6%. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are up more than +4%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) are up more than +3%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rising to a 1-month high. Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +8%, and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is up more than +7%. Also, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +5%, and Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +3%. In addition, MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up more than +2%. Software stocks are under pressure today after Morgan Stanley downgraded Adobe, Intuit, and Workday. Thomson Reuters is down more than -3%, and Workday (WDAY) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Adobe Systems (ADBE) and Atlassian Corp (TEAM) are down more than -2%, and Salesforce (CRM) is down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, Autodesk (ADSK), Datadog (DDOG), Intuit (INTU), and ServiceNow (NOW) are down more than -1%. Hasbro (HAS) is up more than +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 net revenue of $1.14 billion, better than the consensus of $1.07 billion, and boosting its full-year adjusted Ebitda forecast to $1.45 billion to $1.50 billion from a previous forecast of $1.40 billion to $1.45 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.45 billion. 3M Co (MMM) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.40, stronger than the consensus of $2.25, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.80 to $8.95 from a previous forecast of $8.50 to $8.70. Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is up more than +8% after Nvidia reported a 9.3% stake in the company in a 13G filing. Ralph Lauren (RL) is up more than +2% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $410. Danaher (DHR) is down more than -13% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting Q3 non-GAAP core revenue growth of 2.0% to 3.0%, weaker than the consensus of 3.61%. MSCI Inc (MSCI) is down more than -10% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.94, below the consensus of $4.99, and boosting its full-year operating expenses estimate to $1.54 billion to $1.58 billion from a previous estimate of $1.49 billion to $1.53 billion. Equifax (EFX) is down more than -6% after lowering the top end of its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.39 to $8.69 from $8.34 to $8.74. Halliburton (HAL) is down more than -5% after reporting Q2 adjusted operating income of $683 million, weaker than the consensus of $688.7 million. Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) is down more than -4% after announcing it will not advance the development of tebapivat for sickle cell disease following Phase 2 trial results that failed to establish a differentiated profile versus placebo. Earnings Reports(7/21/2026) 3M Co (MMM), Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK), Ally Financial Inc (ALLY), Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY), Bank OZK (OZK), Capital One Financial Corp (COF), Charles Schwab Corp/The (SCHW), Chubb Ltd (CB), Danaher Corp (DHR), DR Horton Inc (DHI), East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC), EQT Corp (EQT), Equifax Inc (EFX), General Motors Co (GM), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Halliburton Co (HAL), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR), KeyCorp (KEY), Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MRSH), MSCI Inc (MSCI), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC), Pegasystems Inc (PEGA), Range Resources Corp (RRC), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Valmont Industries Inc (VMI), Vicor Corp (VICR), Weatherford International PLC (WFRD), Webster Financial Corp (WBS), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

However, WTI crude oil (CLQ26) prices fell from their highs after Iran said it wouldn't abandon diplomacy and that Qatar and Pakistan had reached out to mediate an end to the conflict, proposing a 10-day cessation of strikes between the US and Iran. Crude prices initially climbed to a 5-week high today as the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran has reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill, tightening global oil supplies. Also, signs that the conflict in the Middle East is widening are supporting crude oil after Houthi rebels said they will impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they say is the kingdom's siege on the Yemeni capital, a potential threat to Saudi Arabian crude exports through the Red Sea. Geopolitical risks continue, as the US conducted a ninth straight day of airstrikes on Iran in an attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, bombing military targets and communications networks. Iran retaliated by launching drones and missiles at US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, and Iraq and attacking tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The New York Times reported today that the US is sending more warplanes to the Middle East, including F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, a possible sign that US military operations could expand in the coming days. Stock indexes are mostly higher today amid a rebound in chipmakers. Short covering emerged in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks ahead of earnings results of megacap technology stocks this week, beginning with Alphabet on Wednesday. Stocks also found support after crude oil prices fell from their highs on signs that diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war were ongoing. Weakness in software stocks today is limiting the overall market's upside. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.46%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.86%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.43%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +0.78%. Story Continues The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which begin in earnest this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. The markets are discounting a 14% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.11%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 10.5-month low and closed up +0.85%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average did not trade, with Japanese markets closed for the Marine Day holiday. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -4 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +1.2 bp to 4.560%. Sep T-notes are under pressure today from a rebound in stocks, which has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. Also, today's rally in WTI crude oil to a 5-week high has boosted inflation expectations and is negative for T-notes. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.4 bp to 3.130%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +2.4 bp to 4.974%. German Jun PPI fell -0.3% m/m and rose +1.8% y/y, right on expectations. Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on Thursday. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are moving higher today, providing support to the overall market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up +2%. Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +4%, and Intel (INTC), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), and Sandisk (SNDK) are up more than +3%. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +2%. Software stocks are sliding today, limiting gains in the broader market. ServiceNow (NOW) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and Adobe Systems (ADBE) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Intuit (INTU) and Workday (WDAY) are down more than -3%, and Atlassian Corp (TEAM) and Autodesk (ADSK) are down more than -2%. In addition, Oracle (ORCL), Thomson Reuters (TRI), and Salesforce (CRM) are down more than -1%. Iren Ltd (IREN) is up more than +17% after raising its year-end AI-cloud revenue estimate to more than $4 billion from a previous estimate of $3.7 billion. Teradyne (TER) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after UBS raised its price target on the stock to $500 from $440. Lumentum Holdings (LITE) is up more than +7% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $1,000. Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is up more than +6% after Freedom Capital Markets upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $200. Domino's Pizza (DPZ) is up more than +4% after reporting Q2 revenue of $1.19 billion, above the consensus of $1.18 billion. Urban Outfitters (URBN) is up more than +4% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $93. LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) is up +4% after Brookfield Asset Management and CPP Investments agreed to purchase the company for $5.2 billion, or about $61.20 per share. Alphabet (GOOGL) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after The Information reported that the company is developing a new server chip designed to optimize its Gemini artificial intelligence model. Global Payments (GPN) is up more than +2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $100. Yeti Holdings (YETI) is up more than +1% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $63. Penguin Solutions (PENG) is down more than -12% after Barclays downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $40. HubSpot (HUBS) is down more than -1% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight with a price target of $225. Earnings Reports(7/20/2026) AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), BOK Financial Corp (BOKF), Crown Holdings Inc (CCK), Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ), Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD), W R Berkley Corp (WRB), Wintrust Financial Corp (WTFC), Zions Bancorp NA (ZION). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

The University of Michigan US Jul 1-year inflation expectations eased to 4.2% from 4.6% in Jun, weaker than expectations of 4.4%. The Jul 5-10-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.3% from Jun, right on expectations. The University of Michigan US Jul consumer sentiment index rose by +4.9 to a 5-month high of 54.4, stronger than expectations of 51.0. Friday's US housing news was mixed. Jun housing starts rose +19.0% m/m to 1.427 million, stronger than expectations of 1.310 million. However, Jun building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -3.0% to 1.367 million, below expectations of 1.403 million. On the positive side for stocks, the University of Michigan US Jul consumer sentiment index rose more than expected to a 5-month high, and 1-year inflation expectations eased more than expected. Also, energy stocks rallied amid the surge in crude oil prices to a 5-week high. Stock indexes settled sharply lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 posting a 1-week low, the Dow Jones Industrials sliding to a 2.5-week low, and the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 5-week low. The global selloff in chipmakers continued on Friday amid concerns that massive gains fueled by the buildout of artificial intelligence have run too far to justify their elevated valuations. The rout began in Asia, with China's Shanghai Composite falling -3% and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index falling -4% after China's AI startup Moonshot launched its new Kimi K3 AI model, which the company says rivals the strongest offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic PBC, sparking concerns about the industry's spending spree. Losses in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks also weighed on the overall market. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed down -1.01%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.77%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.49%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) fell -1.02%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) fell -1.51%. Story Continues Hawkish comments on Friday from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were negative for stocks and bonds, as she said persistently high inflation is her bigger concern right now, even as consumer spending holds up and unemployment remains low. Geopolitical risks continue, as WTI crude oil (CLQ26) soared more than +4% as the US launched fresh strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive day on Friday, hitting coastal surveillance and air defense sites, military logistics infrastructure, and maritime assets. Iran responded by attacking US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, with Kuwait saying a desalination and electricity plant were hit, with many power-generation units sustaining damage. The Kuwaiti armed forces said it intercepted 32 Iranian drones targeting "vital" institutions. Crude prices raced to their highs Friday afternoon after Axios reported that the Trump administration notified Israel it is sending more refueling planes to the country, a possible sign that US military operations could expand in the coming days. President Trump pledged to intensify the bombardment until Iran stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to open the waterway. The Wall Street Journal reported that US forces struck multiple bridges to cut supply routes to an Iranian port city and naval base used to support attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. According to RBC Capital Markets LLC, a seven-day moving average of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has slumped to 3.9 million bpd from 8.5 million bpd before the collapse of the ceasefire. Selling by corporate insiders is another negative for stocks. According to EPFR Global Market Intelligence, executives sold $77.6 billion of stock during the first half of this year, the second-highest amount in more than 20 years. The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which began this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. The markets are discounting a 14% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Overseas stock markets settled sharply lower on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 slid to a 1-week low and closed down -0.84%. China's Shanghai Composite sank to a 10.5-month low and closed down -3.05%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average fell to a 5-week low and closed down -4.03%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) on Friday closed up +4 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield fell -0.8 bp to 4.545%. Sep T-notes climbed to a 1.5-week high on Friday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.509%. Friday's slump in global equity markets sparked safe-haven demand for T-notes. Gains in T-notes were limited after US Jun housing starts and consumer sentiment rose more than expected, and after WTI crude oil surged by more than +4% to a 5-week high, which lifted inflation expectations. European government bond yields moved lower on Friday. The 10-year German bund yield fell -0.8 bp to 3.126%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -1.5 bp to 4.951%. Swaps are discounting an 8% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks sold off for a second day on Friday, dragging the broader market lower. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell to a 1.75-month low and closed down more than -1%. Applied Materials (AMAT) closed down more than -5%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) and Sandisk (SNDK) closed down more than -3%. Also, Intel (INTC), Lam Research (LRCX), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed down more than -2%. The Magnificent Seven technology stocks mostly fell on Friday, weighing on the overall market. Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA) closed down more than -2%, and Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon.com (AMZN) closed down more than -1%. Bucking the trend, Apple (AAPL) closed up +0.09%. Energy stocks and service providers climbed on Friday amid the surge in crude oil prices. Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +3%, and APA Corp (APA), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Phillips 66 (PSX) closed up more than +2%. Also, Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Devon Energy (DVN) closed up more than +1%. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) closed down more than -14% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after maintaining its full-year forecast despite reporting better-than-expected Q2 earnings results. STAAR Surgical (STAA) closed down more than -9% after reporting preliminary Q2 net sales of $90.0 million, below the consensus of $90.2 million. Netflix (NFLX) closed down more than -7% after forecasting full-year revenue of $51 billion to $51.4 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $51.38 billion. Autoliv (ALV) closed down more than -4% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.43, below the consensus of $2.45. Coca-Cola (KO) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after it said it has temporarily suspended production operations at its Fairlife milk in the US after an unauthorized third party gained access to some of its systems. International Business Machines (IBM) closed down more than -2% after Citigroup cut its price target on the stock to $255 from $375. Travelers Cos (TRV) closed up more than +9% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q2 net premiums written of $11.53 billion, above the consensus of $11.409 billion. Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc (JAZZ) closed up more than +2% after Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage of the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $290. Construction Partners (ROAD) closed up more than +1% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the company will replace Molina Healthcare in the S&P SmallCap 600 before the opening of trading on Wednesday, July 22. Earnings Reports(7/20/2026) AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), BOK Financial Corp (BOKF), Crown Holdings Inc (CCK), Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ), Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD), W R Berkley Corp (WRB), Wintrust Financial Corp (WTFC), Zions Bancorp NA (ZION). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which will begin this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. Stocks extended their losses and crude oil prices added to their gains after President Trump said the US is reinstating the Iranian blockade and stopping Iranian ships from using the Strait of Hormuz. He added that otherwise the strait will remain open "with or without Iran" and that the US would be reimbursed at a rate of 20% of all cargo shipped for providing protection in the area. An escalation in hostilities in the Middle East is weighing on market sentiment, with WTI crude oil (CLQ26) up more than +4% today after the US, over the weekend, launched fresh missile attacks against Iran, targeting Iranian air-defense systems, coastal radar sites, and missile and drone capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks at targets in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. Iran also attacked two vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Stock indexes are falling today as a sell-off in South Korean chipmakers weighed on technology stocks and crude oil prices jumped amid renewed US-Iran hostilities. South Korea's Kospi Index closed down more than -8% today after SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics plunged more than -10% on concerns that the artificial intelligence boom has become overextended. On the positive side is the strength of software stocks. Also, energy producers are moving higher with crude oil prices up sharply. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.33%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.16%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.12%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.33%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -1.10%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 39% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Overseas stock markets are lower today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.10%. China's Shanghai Composite tumbled to a 3-month low and closed down -2.06%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average fell to a 1-month low and closed down -1.92%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -6 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +3.4 bp to 4.595%. T-notes fell to a 7-week low today, and the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 7-week high of 4.602%. T-notes are under pressure from today's +4% jump in WTI crude oil prices, which raises inflation expectations. Losses in T-notes are contained, as today's slide in stocks has boosted safe-haven demand for government debt. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +3.6 bp to 3.101%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +8.2 bp to 4.953%. Swaps are discounting a 17% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are falling today and are weighing on the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is down more than -3%. Sandisk (SNDK) is down more than -8%, and Arm Holdings (ARM) is down more than -7%. Also, Marvel Technology (MRVL) is down more than -6%, and Western Digital (WDC), Micron Technology (MU), Lam Research (LRCX), Intel (INTC), and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) are down more than -4%. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are down more than -3%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Broadcom (AVGO), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -2%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are falling today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -1%. Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are down more than -3%, and Strategy (MSTR) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) are down more than -2%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is down more than -1%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) is -0.73%. Software stocks are moving higher today, a supportive factor for the broader market. Atlassian Corp (TEAM) is up more than +6%, and Intuit (INTU) is up more than +5%. Also, Salesforce (CRM) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Workday (WDAY) is up more than +4%. In addition, Adobe Systems (ADBE) and ServiceNow (NOW) are up more than +3%, and Autodesk (ADSK), Datadog (DDOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) are up more than +1%. Energy producers and service providers are climbing today, with WTI crude oil up more than +4%. Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), Haliburton (HAL), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +3%, and APA Corp (APA), Diamondback Energy (FANG), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Devon Energy (DVN) are up more than +2%. Also, Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Chevron (CVX), and SLB Ltd (SLB) are up more than +1%. SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) are down more than -5% after the stock plunged more than -15% in South Korean trading, fueling concerns that the AI-trade has become overstretched. First Hawaiian (FHB) is down more than -4% after agreeing to acquire TriCo Bancshares for $63.12/share in an all-stock transaction. TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) is up more than +11% after First Hawaiian agreed to acquire the company for $63.12/share in an all-stock transaction. Humana (HUM) is up more than +3% after Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $502. Biogen (BIIB) is up more than +1% after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $235. American Express (AXP) is up more than +1% after JPMorgan Chas upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $400. Earnings Reports(7/13/2026) American Resources Corp (AREC), Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL), FB Financial Corp (FBK). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

WTI crude oil (CLQ26) gave up an early advance today and is down more than -1% on speculation that the tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran will not escalate any further. Crude prices initially moved higher after the US military struck Iran for a second day today, hitting about 90 Iranian targets to degrade the country's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by targeting US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar with drones and missiles. On Wednesday, President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is over, raising the prospect of persistent hostilities in the region that could disrupt energy supplies. The US on Tuesday also revoked the Iran oil waiver that allowed buyers to purchase and transport Iranian oil legally. The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. Signs of strength in the US labor market are also supportive of stocks after weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -2,000 to a 6-week low of 215,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of a +2,000 increase to 217,000. Conversely, today's housing news was negative for stocks after Jun existing home sales unexpectedly fell -2.4% m/m to 4.09 million, weaker than expectations of an increase to 4.20 million. Stocks are moving higher today despite an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East as the US and Iran traded attacks against each other for a second day. Stock indexes are climbing today, led by chipmakers, after South Korea's SK Hynix saw its American depositary receipts (ADRs) listing more than seven times oversubscribed, signaling strong investor demand. The US offering by SK Hynix would raise about $24.5 billion for the company, making it the second-largest by a foreign company, according to Bloomberg calculations. Strength in trucking and freight stocks is also lifting the broader market after Citigroup upgraded the sector. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.48%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.27%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.49%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +1.26%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 26% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.10%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 1-month low and closed up +1.65%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +1.38%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +4 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -2.8 bp to 4.551%. T-notes are moving higher today amid an increase in safe-haven demand after the US launched attacks against Iran for a second day. T-notes added to their gains after US Jun existing home sales unexpectedly declined. Gains in T-notes are limited after weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 6-week low, a sign of labor market strength that is hawkish for Fed policy. Also, supply pressures are bearish for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $22 billion of 30-year T-bonds later today. European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell from a 1.5-month high of 3.118% and is down -0.5 bp to 3.087%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -7.1 bp to 4.903%. German trade news was mixed, with May exports unexpectedly rising +0.9% m/m, versus expectations of a -0.4% m/m decline. May imports fell -2.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.8% m/m. Swaps are discounting a 13% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are moving higher today, providing support to the overall market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +4%. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +11%, and SanDisk (SNDK) and ON Semiconductor (ON) are up more than +8%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron Technology (MU), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +7%, and Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +6%. In addition, Seagate Technology Holdings NV (STX) and Microchip Technology are up more than +5%, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +4%. Trucking companies are moving higher today after Citigroup upgraded the sector. FedEx Freight Holding (FDXF) is up more than +7%, and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) are up more than +3%. Also, ArcBest (ARCB), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), and United Parcel Service (UPS) are up more than +2%. In addition, Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN), Saia Inc (SAIA), and XPO Inc (XPO) are up more than +1%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators are climbing today with WTI crude oil prices down by more than -1%. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is up by more than +5%, and Alaska Air Group (ALK) is up more than +4%. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL) and Carnival (CCL) are up more than +3%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) are up by more than +2%. Cerebras Systems (CBRS) is up more than +8% after announcing it plans to expand its European AI infrastructure to 200MW of total compute capacity by the end of 2027. Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $19. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after rivals AstraZeneca and Ionis Pharmaceuticals slumped after a late-stage trial of their Wainua drug failed to prevent heart problems in patients. Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) is down more than -20% on the news. Ceco Environmental Corp (CECO) is up more than +5% after JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of overweight and a price target of $130. Granite Construction (GVA) is down more than -8% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $139. Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after Arete Research downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $2. Costco Wholesale (COST) is down more than -4% after reporting that June total comparable sales rose 8.8%, below the consensus of 9.8%. PepsiCo (PEP) is down more than -3% after reporting Q2 operating profit of $4.02 billion, weaker than the consensus of $4.06 billion. International Business Machines (IBM) is down more than -2% after Starbucks said it was developing in-house tools with the help of artificial intelligence that could replace some software applications it buys from IBM. Mattel (MAT) is down more than -1% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $12. Earnings Reports(7/9/2026) Immersion Corp (IMMR), Nurix Therapeutics Inc (NRIX), PepsiCo Inc (PEP), Simply Good Foods Co/The (SMPL), Simulations Plus Inc (SLP), WD-40 Co (WDFC). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

WTI crude oil (CLQ26) surged more than +7% today to a 2-week high after the US launched strikes against more than 80 targets in Iran in response to Iran attacking commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Also, President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is over, raising the prospect of renewed hostilities in the region that could disrupt energy supplies. The US late Tuesday also revoked the Iran oil waiver that allowed buyers to purchase and transport Iranian oil legally. The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. US MBA mortgage applications fell -2.2% in the week ended July 3, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -0.6% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -4.1%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +1 bp to 6.58% from 6.57% in the prior week. Stocks added to their losses today, and crude prices raced to their highs on comments from President Trump, who said the US will probably launch further strikes on Iran and could resume a blockade of the country's ports. The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has pushed crude prices sharply higher to a 2-week high, boosting inflation expectations and sending bond yields higher. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1.5-month high of 4.59%. Stock indexes are sliding today as crude oil prices and bond yields jumped after President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran is over. Mr. Trump called the ceasefire "a waste of time" after the US launched strikes against Iran in response to attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation of hostilities has prompted a flight from risk and some stock selling. Limiting losses in the broader market is today's strength in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks, which are recovering some of Tuesday's sell-off. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.79%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -1.44%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.61%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.77%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -0.60%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 33% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Overseas stock markets are lower today. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 3.5-week low and is down -1.54%. China's Shanghai Composite slid to a 3.5-week low and closed down -0.49%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average dropped to a 3-week low and closed down -2.11%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -14 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +3.4 bp to 4.585%. Sep T-notes dropped to a 1.5-month low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1.5-month high of 4.591%. Today's +7% surge in WTI crude oil prices to a 2-week high has boosted inflation expectations and undercut T-note prices. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high of 2.277% today. Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-note prices as the Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10-year T-notes later today. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 3.5-week high of 3.083% and is up +8.0 bp to 3.073%. The 10-year UK gilt yield jumped to a 1.5-month high of 4.961% and is up +10.6 bp to 4.954%. ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said he can't rule out another ECB interest rate increase due to the recent setback with Iran. Swaps are discounting a 17% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23. US Stock Movers Homebuilders and building suppliers are under pressure today after the 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 1.5-month high, a negative factor for housing demand. Builders Firstsource (BLDR) is down more than -6%, and DR Horton (DHI) and Pulte Group (PHM) are down more than -4%. Also, Home Depot (HD), Lennar (LEN), and Toll Brothers (TOL) are down more than -3%, and KB Home (KBH) is down more than -2%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators slid on Tuesday after WTI crude oil prices jumped by more than +7%. American Airlines Group (AAL) and Alaska Air Group (ALK) are down more than -5%, and Carnival (CCL) is down more than -4%. Also, Delta Air Lines (DAL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) are down more than -3%. Software stocks are sliding today, weighing on the broader market. Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Intuit (INTU), and Workday (WDAY) are down more than -4%, and Atlassian Corp (TEAM) and ServiceNow (NOW) are down more than -3%. Also, Oracle (ORCL), Thomson Reuters (TRI), Autodesk (ADSK), and Salesforce (CRM) are down more than -2%, and Adobe Systems (ADBE) and Microsoft (MSFT) are down more than -1%. Energy producers and service providers are climbing today with crude oil prices up by more than +7% at a 2-week high. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Valero Energy (VLO) is up more than +5%. Also, Baker Hughes (BKR), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Phillips 66 (PSX) are up more than +4%, and APA Corp (APA) and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are up more than +3%. In addition, ConocoPhillips (COP), Chevron (CVX), Devon Energy (DVN), and Halliburton (HAL) are up more than +2%, and SLB Ltd (SLB) is up more than +1%. Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are moving higher today, recovering some of Tuesday's sell-off. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up nearly 1%. Broadcom (AVGO) is up more than +4%, and SanDisk (SNDK) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +2%. Also, Western Digital (WDC), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Analog Devices (ADI), and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +1%. Lemonade Inc (LMND) is down more than -9% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight with a price target of $75. Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) is down more than -8% after Wolfspeed filed a patent infringement lawsuit against the company, alleging that a broad range of Navitas products infringes multiple Wolfspeed patents. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) is down more than -7% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight. Bath & Body Works (BBWI) is down more than -6% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $19. PayPal Holdings (PYPL) is down more than -3% after Barclays initiated coverage on the stock with an underweight rating and a price target of $42. Beazer Homes USA (BZH) is up more than +14% after Dream Finders Homes said it has submitted an all-cash proposal to acquire the company for $32 a share. Dollar Tree (DLTR) is up more than +1% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $140. Dell Technologies (DELL) is up more than +1% after Evercore ISI raised its price target on the stock to $500 from $450. Earnings Reports(7/8/2026) AZZ Inc (AZZ), Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE), Hub Group Inc (HUBG), PriceSmart Inc (PSMT), Pure Cycle Corp (PCYO), Toyo Co Ltd (TOYO). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by 23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of 30%, which was more than double the 12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -1,000 to 215,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 218,000. US Jun nonfarm payrolls rose +57,000, weaker than expectations of +113,000, and May nonfarm payrolls were revised lower to +129,000 from the originally reported +172,000. The Jun unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to a 1-year low of 4.2%, signaling a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 4.3%. Stock index futures initially moved lower today amid weakness in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks. South Korea's Kospi Index fell more than -7% to a 3-week low, led by a plunge in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics on renewed doubts over the sustainability of the AI buildout boom. The losses in South Korean chipmakers come amid negative carryover from Wednesday, when Meta Platforms said it plans to sell computing power, raising questions about excess AI capacity. Stock indexes are moving higher today, with the S&P 500 posting a 2-week high and the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new all-time high. Stocks are climbing today after a slower-than-expected increase in US nonfarm payrolls knocked bond yields lower and bolstered speculation that the Fed will be unable to raise interest rates any time soon. US hiring slowed sharply in June and was revised lower in May even as the unemployment rate fell to a 1-year low. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.67%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.85%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.40%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.58%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +0.43%. Story Continues WTI crude oil (CLQ26) is down more than -1% today at a fresh 4.25-month low as global supplies increase. The United Arab Emirates ramped up shipments of crude oil and condensates by 30% in June to more than 3.9 million bpd, restoring its oil exports to pre-war levels. Also, a US official said commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has surged over the past few weeks, with American military support helping boost oil flows to more than 10 million bpd. The markets are discounting an 18% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Overseas stock markets are moving higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a new record high and is up +1.32%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1-week high and closed up +0.4%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.59%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +4 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -1.8 bp to 4.461%. Sep T-notes rebounded from a 1-week low today and moved higher, and the 10-year T-note yield fell from a 1-week high of 4.501%. T-notes pushed higher today on signs of a slowdown in the US labor market after Jun nonfarm payrolls rose less than expected and May nonfarm payrolls were revised lower. T-notes also have support on today's -1% fall in crude oil prices to a 4.25-month low, which lowers inflation expectations. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 1-week high of 2.929% and is up +3.8 bp to 2.917%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +4.0 bp to 4.796%. Italy's May unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to a record low of 5.0% (data from 2004), showing a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 5.1%. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said interest rate cuts are "off the table at the moment," as households have yet to feel the full effect of the Iran war. Swaps are discounting a 4% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23. US Stock Movers Software stocks are moving higher for a second day today, a positive factor for the overall market. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up more than +4% after DA Davidson upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $175. Adobe (ADBE) is up more than +3% after HSBC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $308. Also, Autodesk (ADSK), Intuit (INTU), and Oracle (ORCL) are up more than +2%, and Salesforce (CRM), Atlassian Corp (TEAM), and Workday (WDAY) are up more than +1%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing today with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +3% at a 1-week high. Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +9% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +7%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +4%. In addition, MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +3%. Airlines and cruise operators are moving higher today, with WTI crude oil down more than -1% at a 4.25-month low, lowering fuel costs and boosting the profitability prospects of the companies. Alaska Air Group (ALK) is up more than +3%, and American Airlines Group (AAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are up more than +2%. Also, Carnival (CCL) is up more than +1%. AeroVironment (AVAV) is up more than +13% after being awarded a US Army contract valued at up to $500 million for the procurement of commercial-unmanned aerial systems and counter small-unmanned aerial systems capabilities. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Mizuho Securities raised its price target on the stock to $130 from $115. Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) is down more than -1% after China Renaissance downgraded the stock to hold from buy. Earnings Reports(7/2/2026) Lindsay Corp (LNN) and National Beverage Corp (FIZZ). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

European government bond yields were mixed on Monday. The 10-year German bund yield rose +0.7 bp to 2.857%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -1.5 bp to 4.716%. September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) on Monday closed down -2.5 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield rose +0.5 bp to 4.374%. T-notes were under pressure on Monday amid a +2% increase in WTI crude oil prices, which raised inflation expectations. Also, Monday's strength in stocks reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. Overseas stock markets settled higher on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.16%. China's Shanghai Composite rebounded from a 2-week low and closed up +1.16%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average recovered from a 2-week low and closed up +0.15%. The markets are discounting a 32% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. WTI crude oil (CLQ26) rose by more than +2% on Monday on escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Late Friday, the US attacked several Iranian military installations in retaliation for Iran's attack on Thursday of a container ship in the strait. The US then attacked Iran again on Saturday after Iran attacked a tanker carrying Qatari oil and launched drone and missile attacks against US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. However, crude oil prices fell from their best level after the US and Iran late Sunday agreed to stop attacking each other for now and to allow vessels to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz. Stock indexes settled sharply higher on Monday, led by strength in technology stocks. Also, stocks found support on Monday after the US and Iran backed away from a fresh escalation of hostilities and agreed to stop attacking each other before peace talks resume over the Strait of Hormuz and other issues. President Trump said Monday that talks are set to resume in Doha on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +1.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.59%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +2.25%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) rose +1.20%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) rose +2.24%. Story Continues The Eurozone Jun economic confidence indicator rose by +1.3 to 95.0, beating expectations of 94.3. Eurozone May M3 money supply rose +3.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.7% y/y. Swaps are discounting a 7% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23. US Stock Movers The strength in chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks boosted the overall market on Monday. KLA Corp (KLAC) closed up more than +11%, and Western Digital (WDC) and Applied Materials closed up more than +10%. Also, Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +8%, and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) closed up more than +7%. In addition, ASML Holdings NV (ASML) closed up more than +4%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +3%. Finally, Intel (INTC) and Broadcom (AVGO) closed up more than +2%. Cybersecurity stocks rallied on Monday. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) closed up more than +9%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) and Okta (OKTA) closed up more than +5%. Also, Zscaler (ZS) closed up by more than +3%, and Cloudflare (NET) and Fortinet (FTNT) closed up more than +2%. Iridium Communications (IRDM) closed up more than +25% after Rocket Lab agreed to acquire the company for about $8 billion, or $54 per share. Roblox (RBLX) closed up more than +14% after Arete Research Services LLP upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $95. Charter Communications (CHTR) closed up more than +9% after Bloomberg reported the company has discussed partnering on a consumer phone offering with SpaceX. Axon Enterprise (AXON) closed up more than +9% after a CNBC report said President Trump bought $5 million of the stock two weeks before the company struck a $220 million contract with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) closed up more than +5% after the FDA approved the company's drug for treating an inflammatory disorder that affects the tissues around the eyes. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after announcing it will offer specialist artificial intelligence models from software company Sandbox AQ through its cloud services. Comcast Corp (CMCSA) closed up more than +4% after announcing plans to separate its media businesses from its cable-TV and internet operations. However, the news weighed on other telecommunications stocks, with T-Mobile US (TMUS) closing down by more than -4% and AT&T (T) closing down by more than -3%. Innio NV (INIO) closed up more than +2% after BNP Paribas initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $48. Copart (CPRT) closed down more than -8% after announcing that CEO Jeff Law will step down, effective July 31. Verizon Communications (VZ) closed down more than -5% after saying it expects to record a loss of about $700 million to $800 million in Q2 after striking a deal with BT Group Plc to create a joint venture for their international businesses. Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) closed down more than -5% after agreeing to combine with Lhoist North America in a transaction valued at $13.5 billion. Biohaven Ltd (BHVN) closed down more than -5% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $11. Progressive Corp (PGR) closed down more than -1% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $205. Doximity (DOCS) closed down nearly -1% after Bank of America Global Research double-downgraded the stock to underperform from buy with a price target of $20. Earnings Reports(6/30/2026) Constellation Brands Inc (STZ), NIKE Inc (NKE), Progress Software Corp (PRGS). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

WTI crude oil (CLQ26) rebounded from a 4-month low on Thursday, rising more than 2%, weighing on market sentiment. Renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf pushed crude oil prices sharply higher on Thursday after the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that a cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz. The incident occurred after several freighters turned around while attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, with maritime intelligence companies reporting broadcasts purportedly from the Iranian navy instructing ships not to cross. Stocks also found support after Thursday's US economic news showed signs of strength in the US economy. Q1 GDP was revised higher, weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, May personal spending and income were stronger than expected, and May capital goods new orders rose more than expected. Also, benign inflation news knocked bond yields lower and is supportive of stocks after the May core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose as expected. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 6-week low of 4.36%. Stocks initially moved higher on Thursday, amid strength in chipmakers after Micron Technology's blowout forecast reaffirmed the bull case for the artificial intelligence trade. Micron rallied more than +15% after forecasting Q4 revenue of $50 billion, well above the consensus of $43.24 billion. Also, Qualcomm rose by more than +3% after forecasting annual sales of more than $15 billion from artificial intelligence components for data centers by fiscal 2029. Stock indexes settled mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 falling to a 2-week low and the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new all-time high. The weakness in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks weighed on the broader market, led by a -6% plunge in Apple after it raised prices of Macs, iPads, home devices, and the Vision Pro to offset cost hikes driven by a shortage of memory chips and storage. Also, the weakness in software stocks on Thursday was a drag on the overall market. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Thursday closed down -0.01%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.75%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) rose +0.01%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) rose +0.80%. Story Continues US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -12,000 to 215,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 225,000. US May personal spending rise +0.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m. May personal income rose +0.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and the biggest increase in 10 months. The US May core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose +3.4% y/y, right on expectations and the largest increase in 2.5 years. US May capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts, a proxy for capital spending, rose +1.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m. US Q1 GDP was revised upward to +2.1% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of no change at +1.6%. The markets are discounting a 32% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Overseas stock markets settled higher on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.85%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.23%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up sharply by +4.61%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) closed up by +3 ticks on Thursday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell -0.2 bp to 4.390%. Sep T-note prices climbed to a 6-week high on Thursday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 6-week low of 4.363%. Thursday's benign inflation news supported T-notes after the May core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose as expected. Also, Thursday's initial decline in WTI crude oil to a 4-month low was bullish for T-notes. Solid demand for the Treasury's $44 billion auction of 7-year T-note was positive for T-notes, as the auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50, above the 10-auction average of 2.47. Thursday's generally strong US economic news was bearish for T-note prices. Also, the reversal of crude oil prices from lower to sharply higher boosted inflation expectations and was bearish for T-notes. European government bond yields were mixed on Thursday. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 3.5-month low of 2.845% and finished down -0.8 bp to 2.857%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +1.6 bp to 4.699%. The German July GfK consumer confidence index rose +0.5 to -29.2, weaker than expectations of -28.0. Swaps are discounting a 6% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23. US Stock Movers The weakness in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks weighed on the broader market. Apple (AAPL) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials after raising prices of Macs, iPads, home devices, and the Vision Pro to offset cost hikes caused by a shortage of memory chips and storage. Also, Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) closed down more than -3%, and Meta Platforms (META) closed down more than -2%. In addition, Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than -1%, Alphabet (GOOGL) closed down -0.46%, and Tesla (TSLA) closed down -0.11%. Software stocks fell on Thursday, pressuring the overall market. Atlassian Corp (TEAM) closed down more than -8%, and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed down more than -5%. Also, ServiceNow (NOW) closed down more than -4%, and Workday (WDAY) closed down more than -3%. In addition, Oracle (ORCL) and Intuit (INTU) closed down more than -2%, and Adobe Systems (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM) closed down more than -1%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks were under pressure on Thursday as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) fell more than -2% to a 1.75-year low. Strategy (MSTR) closed down more than -9% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Coinbase Global (COIN) closed down more than -5%. Also, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed down more than -1%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) closed down -0.86%. Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks rallied on Thursday, led by a +15% surge in Micron Technology (MU) after it forecasted Q4 revenue of $50 billion, well above the consensus of $43.24 billion. Also, Sandisk (SNDK) closed up more than +21%, and Applied Materials (AMAT) closed up more than +13%. In addition, KLA Corp (KLAC) and Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +7%, and Western Digital (WDC) and ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed up more than +4%. Finally, Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up more than +3% after forecasting annual sales of more than $15 billion from artificial intelligence components in data centers by fiscal 2029. Bio-Techne (TECH) closed up by more than +20% after Merck & Co agreed to buy the company for about $11.3 billion, or $73 per share. Xylem (XYL) closed up more than +4% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $140. Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP) closed up more than +3% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $36. McCormick & Co (MKC) closed up more than +1% after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.94 billion, above the consensus of $1.91 billion. Trip.com ADRs (TCOM) closed down more than -12% after reporting Q1 adjusted earnings per American depositary receipt of 5.73 yuan, weaker than the consensus of 6.09 yuan. Jeffries Financial Group (JEF) closed down more than -9% after reporting Q2 EPS of $1.02, weaker than the consensus of $1.24. Dell Technologies (DELL) closed down more than -5% after GF Securities downgraded the stock to hold from buy. HB Fuller (FUL) closed down more than -4% after agreeing to buy Advance Medical Solutions Group for $868 million. Earnings Reports(6/26/2026) Apogee Enterprises Inc (APOG) and Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

WTI crude extended recent declines today, which lowers inflation expectations and bond yields and is bullish for stocks. Crude prices (CLQ26) are down more than -4% at a 3.5-month low today as more tankers openly cross the Strait of Hormuz, boosting global crude supplies. Vessels are transiting the waterway with their satellite signals switched on, indicating growing confidence among shipowners. Also, the International Maritime Organization said it had received guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf. The slump in crude oil prices has knocked the 10-year T-note yield down by -8 bp today to a 6-week low of 4.41%, a positive factor for stocks. Homebuilders and building suppliers are climbing today after Congress passed the 21st Century Road to Housing Act. Also, airlines and cruise line operators are moving higher, with today's fall in crude oil prices to a 3.5-month low. On the negative side, today's US economic news showed that May new home sales unexpectedly fell to a 4-month low. Also, mining stocks are retreating today as gold, silver, and copper prices plunge to multi-month lows, and energy producers are sliding as crude oil prices tumbled to a 3.5-month low. Evidence of the vast amounts of capital flowing into the buildout of AI infrastructure and its supply chain is supporting stock prices. South Korea's Kospi Stock Index closed up more than +3% today after SK Hynix announced it was looking to raise 45.45 trillion won ($29 billion) in a US listing and intends to use the proceeds for building additional chip-making capacity. Stock indexes are climbing today, as the market recovers some of Tuesday's sharp selloff, with investors looking ahead to Micron Technology's earnings results after today's close to gauge whether artificial intelligence is living up to expectations. Micron Technology is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the soaring demand, as companies stand to gain from the billions of dollars being pumped into AI infrastructure, with the stock up more than 260% this year. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.72%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.82%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.50%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.56%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +0.33%. Story Continues US MBA mortgage applications rose +1.0% in the week ended June 19, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -0.6% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +3.0%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -1 bp to 6.59% from 6.60% in the prior week. The US Q1 current account deficit was -$225.8 billion, larger than the -$208.9 billion expected. US May new home sales unexpectedly fell -7.3% m/m to a 4-month low of 580,000, weaker than expectations of an increase to 640,000. The markets are discounting a 32% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 slipped to a 1.5-week low and is down -0.39%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.11%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average fell to a 1-week low and closed down -0.88%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +17 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -9.0 bp to 4.060%. T-notes are moving higher today, with the 10-year T-note yield falling to a 6-week low of 4.406%. Today's -4% plunge in WTI crude oil to a 3.5-month low has lowered inflation expectations, a supportive factor for T-note prices. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 14-month low of 2.176% today. Gains in T-notes accelerated today after US May new home sales unexpectedly fell to a 4-month low. Supply pressures are limiting gains in T-notes, as the Treasury will auction $28 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $70 billion of 5-year T-notes later today. European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 3.5-month low of 2.862% and is down -5.7 bp to 2.863%. The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 3-month low of 4.673% and is down -7.8 bp to 4.676%. The German Jun IFO business confidence index rose +0.6 to 85.6, stronger than expectations of 85.5. Swaps are discounting a 7% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23. US Stock Movers Homebuilders and building suppliers are climbing today after Congress passed the 21st Century Road to Housing Act. KB Home (KBH) is up more than +16%, and Builders Firstsource (BLDR) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500. Also, Lennar (LEN), DR Horton (DHI), Pulte Group (PHM), and Toll Brothers (TOL) are up more than +7%. In addition, Home Depot (HD) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials. Airline stocks and cruise line operators are moving higher as today's -4% plunge in crude oil to a 3.5-month low reduces fuel costs and boosts the companies' profitability prospects. Alaska Air Group (ALK) is up more than +7%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) and American Airlines Group (AAL) are up more than +6%. Also, Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) is up more than +5%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) is up more than +4%. In addition, Carnival (CCL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are up more than +3%. Travel stocks are soaring today as crude oil prices plunge to a 3.5-month low, lowering fuel costs and boosting travel prospects. MakeMyTrip Ltd (MMYT) is up more than +10%, and Expedia Group (EXPE) is up more than +9%. Also, Booking Holdings (BKNG) is up more than +8%, and Airbnb (ABNB) and TripAdvisor (TRIP) are up more than +4%. Mining stocks are falling today, as gold, silver, and copper prices retreat. Anglogold Ashanti (AU) is down more than -6%, and Barrick Mining (B) and Coeur Mining (CDE) are down more than -4%. Also, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Southern Copper (SCCO), Hecla Mining (HL), and Newmont Corp (NEM) are down more than -3%. Energy producers and service providers are under pressure today, with WTI crude down more than 4% to a 3.5-month low. Baker Hughes (BKR) is down more than -5%, and Haliburton (HAL) is down more than -4%. Also, APA Corp (APA), ConocoPhillips (COP), and SLB Limited (SLB) are down more than -3%, and Devon Energy (DVN), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are down more than -2%. In addition, Chevron (CVX) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones industrials. Finally, Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than 1%. Twilio Inc (TWLO) is up more than +3% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $300. Honeywell Aerospace (HONAV) is up more than +3% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the company will replace Conagra Brands in the S&P 500 before the opening of trading on Tuesday, June 30. Terex Corp (TEX) is up more than +3% after D.A. Davidson initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $81. FuelCell Energy (FCEL) is up more than +1% after announcing it had reached an agreement with Fit Energy to supply 380 megawatts of clean on-site power for data centers using FuelCell Energy's technology. Cerebras Systems (CBRS) is down by more than -15% after its annual sales forecast missed high investor expectations. Flowserve (FLS) is down more than -7% after TD Cowen downgraded the stock to hold from buy with a price target of $70. Principal Financial Group (PFG) is down more than -4% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $95. FedEx Corp (FDX) is down more than -1% on disappointment in its first earnings report since completing the spin-off of its freight unit earlier this month. Earnings Reports(6/24/2026) Daktronics Inc (DAKT), HB Fuller Co (FUL), Immersion Corp (IMMR), Jefferies Financial Group Inc (JEF), Methode Electronics Inc (MEI), Micron Technology Inc (MU), Millerknoll Inc (MLKN), Novagold Resources Inc (NG), Paychex Inc (PAYX), Worthington Steel Inc (WS). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

The FOMC's dot plot of interest rate projections showed the committee raised its fed funds rate projection to 3.750% at the end of 2026, up from a prior estimate of 3.375%, implying at least one more 25 bp rate hike this year. Nine of 18 FOMC participants penciled in at least one more rate hike this year, with six anticipating at least two. The FOMC, as expected, voted unanimously to keep the fed funds rate target unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and to remove language on potential additional interest rate adjustments, declaring "the committee will deliver price stability." US May pending home sales rose +3.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.9% m/m and the biggest increase in 20 months. US May retail sales rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m. Also, May retail sales ex-autos rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m. US MBA mortgage applications fell -3.8% in the week ended June 12, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -3.4% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -4.5%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged from last week at 6.60%. Stocks also have carryover support from Monday after the US and Iran agreed to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, knocking crude oil prices down to a 3.5-month low and stoking risk-on sentiment in asset markets. Stocks initially moved higher on Wednesday amid strength in chipmakers. Stocks also garnered support on better-than-expected US economic reports on US May retail sales, a sign of resilient consumer demand, and May pending home sales. Stock indexes gave up early gains on Wednesday and settled sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrials falling from a new all-time high, after the Fed signaled the possibility of higher interest rates later this year. As expected, the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged following Wednesday’s meeting, but its dot-plot of interest rate projections indicates at least one more 25 bp rate hike this year. The weakness in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks and a slump in software stocks weighed on the overall market. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed down -1.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.98%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.99%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) fell -1.19%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) fell -0.95%. Story Continues The Fed cut its US 2026 GDP projection to 2.2% from a March projection of 2.4% and boosted its 2026 core PCE projection to 3.3% from 2.7%. Fed Chair Keven Warsh said he's appointing task forces to examine central bank functions, including communications, the balance sheet, reliance on existing data sources, productivity and jobs, and the Fed's inflation framework. WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) recovered from a 3.5-month low today and rose nearly 1% as prices consolidated following this week’s plunge. The eventual resumption of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to the release of more than 100 laden ships carrying oil from Middle Eastern countries other than Iran that are stuck in the Persian Gulf, effectively releasing stockpiles into the market. Goldman Sachs on Tuesday cut its price forecast on Brent crude to $80 a barrel in Q4 of this year, down from $90 a barrel, and said it expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, one month earlier than previously expected. The markets are discounting a 36% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Overseas stock markets settled higher on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a new record high and closed up +0.68%. China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 2.5-week high and closed up +0.40%. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average climbed to a new all-time high and closed up +0.72%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) on Wednesday closed down -12 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield rose +3.6 bp to 4.475%. Sep T-notes moved lower on Wednesday after US economic reports showed May retail sales and May pending home sales rose more than expected, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. T-notes extended their losses on Wednesday afternoon when the Fed raised its US 2026 core PCE estimate and projected higher interest rates later this year. European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1.75-month low of 2.914% and finished down -0.3 bp to 2.927%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 2-month low of 4.734% and finished down -3.7 bp to 4.751%. Eurozone May core CPI was revised upward to 2.6% y/y from the previously reported 2.5% y/y, the strongest pace of increase in 13 months. ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said that the "pass-through of the increase in energy and other raw material prices to the market has already occurred," and "at least one more rate increase is certainly more likely than not." UK May CPI rose 2.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of 3.0% y/y. May core CPI rose 2.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of 2.7% y/y. Swaps are discounting a 16% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23. US Stock Movers The Magnificent Seven technology stocks moved lower on Wednesday, weighing on the broader market. Meta Platforms (META) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) are down more than-2%. Also, Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA) are down more than -1%. In addition, Apple (AAPL) is down -0.64% and Nvidia (NVDA) is down -0.50%. Software stocks retreated on Wednesday, a negative factor for the overall market. Adobe Systems (ADBE) and ServiceNow (NOW) close down more than -5%, and Salesforce (CRM) Closed down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones industrials. Also, Atlassian Corp (TEAM), Autodesk (ADSK), and Intuit (INTU) closed down more than -4%, and Workday (WDAY) closed down more than -3%. In addition, Oracle (ORCL) closed down more than -2%, and Datadog (DDOG) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed down more than -1%. Telecommunication stocks were under pressure on Wednesday, a negative factor for the overall market. Charter Communications (CHTR) closed down more than -6%, and Comcast Corp (CMCSA) closed down more than -3%. Also, AT&T (T) closed down more than -2%, and T-Mobile US (TMUS) and Verizon Communications (VZ) closed down more than -1%. Trucking stocks slid for a third day on Wednesday after Citigroup on Monday warned that the recent rally in trucking and logistics stocks had been overdone. RXO Inc (RXO) and ArcBest (ARCB) closed down more than -8%, and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), XPO Inc (XPO), and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) closed down more than -5%. Also, CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) and FedEx Freight Holdings (FDXF) closed down more than -1%. Chipmakers rebounded on Wednesday, recovering some of Tuesday’s sharp losses. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Applied Materials (AMAT) and Broadcom (AVGO) closed up more than +4%. Also, ASML Holding NV (ASML), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and (INTC) closed up more than +3%, and Micron Technology (MU) closed up more than +2%. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +1%. Ormat Technologies (ORA) closed down more than -5% after Bernstein initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of underperform and a price target of $115. Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) closed down more than -5% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $25. Leidos Holdings (LDOS) closed down more than -4% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to neutral from buy. CME Group (CME) closed down more than -3% after announcing that CEO Terry Duffy is stepping down and CFO Lynne Fitzpatrick will replace him on March 1, 2027. ResMed (RMD) closed down more than -3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight. UniQure NV (QURE) closed up more than +79% after saying the FDA allowed 3-year data from its Phase I/II study of AMT-130 for Huntington’s disease to be acceptable as the primary basis for an application for accelerated approval. Wabash National Corp (WNC) closed up more than +16% after D.A. Davidson upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $20. La-Z-Boy (LZB) closed up more than +15% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.26, stronger than the consensus of 83 cents. Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) closed up more than +7% after saying it received a follow-on production order for a fully automated FOX-XP wafer-level burn-in (WLBI) system. Credicorp Ltd (BAP) closed up more than +6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $480. Figma Inc (FIG) closed up more than +4% after Citigroup initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $36. Earnings Reports(6/18/2026) Accenture PLC (ACN) and Kroger Co/The (KR). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) sank more than -5% on Tuesday to a 3.5-month low due to the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, boosting expectations for a revival in oil supplies. Losses in crude oil accelerated Tuesday afternoon when the Wall Street Journal reported that the US-Iran peace deal would allow Iran to sell crude oil immediately. Goldman Sachs on Tuesday cut its price forecast on Brent crude to $80 a barrel in Q4 of this year, down from $90 a barrel, and said it expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, one month earlier than previously expected. The US May import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m. US May housing starts fell -15.4% m/m to a 6-year low of 1.177 million, weaker than expectations of 1.430 million. May building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -0.7% m/m to 1.413 million, weaker than expectations of 1.418 million. The market’s focus will turn to the 2-day FOMC meeting that began on Tuesday, the first under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the spotlight will be on how Mr. Warsh navigates the post-meeting press conference and the outlook for inflation. Stocks found some support on Tuesday as crude oil prices dropped another -5% to a 3.5-month low, easing inflation expectations. Stocks have carryover support from Monday’s surge after the US and Iran agreed to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stoking risk-on sentiment in asset markets. The 10-year T-note yield fell -5 bp to 4.42%. Stock indexes settled mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new all-time high. The weakness of chipmakers weighed on the broader market Tuesday, along with a slide in energy producers after crude oil prices plunged. Also, weakness in software stocks weighed on the overall market. In addition, Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected US housing starts and building permits reports were negative for stocks. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed down -0.57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.64%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.89%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) fell -0.60%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) fell -1.87%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 5% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting. Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.45%. China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 1.5-week high and closed down -0.11%. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average rose to a new all-time high and closed up +0.13%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) on Tuesday closed up +9 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield fell -5.1 bp to 4.422%. Sep T-notes on Tuesday matched Monday’s 2-week low, and the 10-year T-note yield matched Monday’s 2-week low of 4.418%. T-notes rallied on Tuesday after WTI crude oil prices plunged more than -5% to a 3.5-month low, which has reduced inflation expectations and is bullish for T-notes. Also, Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected US May housing starts and building permits reports were supportive of T-notes. In addition, markets are hoping for a less hawkish FOMC meeting this week, given that oil prices should decline over time if the Strait of Hormuz reopens as expected. European government bond yields moved lower on Tuesday. The 10-year German bund yield fell to an 8-week low of 2.920% and finished down -2.4 bp to 2.930%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -2.4 bp to 4.788%. Eurozone Q1 labor costs were revised downward to +3.2% y/y from the previously reported +3.4% y/y. The German Jun ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +20.7 to a 4-month high of 10.5, stronger than expectations of -5.5. Swaps are discounting an 18% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23. US Stock Movers Chipmakers retreated on Tuesday, weighing on the broader market. Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed down more than -9% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Intel (INTC) closed down more than -8%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and KLA Corp (KLAC) closed down more than -7%, and Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -6%. In addition, Lam Research (LRCX) closed down more than -5%, and Microchip Technology (MCHP), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Broadcom (AVGO), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed down more than -4%. Finally, ARM Holdings NV (ARM), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Qualcomm (QCOM) closed down more than -3%. Software stocks fell on Tuesday, a negative factor for the overall market. Atlassian Corp (TEAM) closed down more than -3%, and ServiceNow (NOW), Oracle (ORCL), and Workday (WDAY) closed down more than -2%. Also, Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce (CRM), Datadog (DDOG), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed down more than -1%. Cybersecurity stocks were under pressure on Tuesday, weighing on the broader market. Zscaler (ZS) closed down more than -2%, and Okta (OKTA), Fortinet (FTNT), CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Cloudflare (NET) closed down more than -1%. Energy stocks and service providers moved lower on Tuesday as WTI crude oil fell more than -5% to a 3.5-month low. Haliburton (HAL) closed down more than -2%, and APA Corp (APA), Valero Energy (VLO), Baker Hughes (BKR), ConocoPhillips (COP), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Devon Energy (DVN), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) closed down more than -1%. Huntsman (HUN) closed down more than -17% after agreeing to merge with Olin in an all-stock merger of equals. Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY) closed down more than -6% after reporting Q1 revenue of $559.2 million, weaker than the consensus of $580.3 million. Huson Pacific Properties (HPP) closed down more than -3% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $14. Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) closed down more than -2% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after several analysts cut their price targets on the stock. Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Piper Sandler estimated the company would have 46 million unit sales of Grand Theft Auto VI when the game launches. Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) closed up more than +4%, adding to the +37% gain over the past two sessions on positive carryover from its record $75 billion initial public offering (IPO) late last week, which was more than four times oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for the stock. Valmont Industries (VMI) closed up more than +2% after projecting a goal of $5.4 billion in organic net sales and an EPS target of $35 by the end of 2029. Edwards Lifesciences (EW) closed up more than +2% after the US government published a coverage proposal for transcatheter aortic valve replacement, a positive development for the company. Earnings Reports(6/17/2026) CarMax Inc (KMX), Jabil Inc (JBL), Safe Bulkers Inc (SB), Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) are down more than -3% today at a 3.25-month low due to the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, boosting expectations for a revival in oil supplies. Goldman Sachs today cut its price forecast on Brent crude to $80 a barrel in Q4 of this year, down from $90 a barrel, and said it expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, one month earlier than previously expected. The US May import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m. US May housing starts fell -15.4% m/m to a 6-year low of 1.177 million, weaker than expectations of 1.430 million. May building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -0.7% m/m to 1.413 million, weaker than expectations of 1.418 million. The market’s focus will turn to the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today, the first under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the spotlight will be on how Mr. Warsh navigates the post-meeting press conference and the outlook for inflation. Stocks are supported as crude oil prices dropped another -3% today to a 3.25-month low, easing inflation expectations and supporting stocks and bonds. Stocks have carryover support from Monday’s surge after the US and Iran agreed to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stoking risk-on sentiment in asset markets. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2 bp to 4.45%. Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new all-time high. The weakness in energy producers from the plunge in crude oil prices is weighing on the broader market. Also, weakness in software stocks is a drag on the overall market. In addition, today’s weaker-than-expected US housing starts and building permits reports are negative for stocks. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.83%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.20%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.85%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 4% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.56%. China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 1.5-week high and closed down -0.11%. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average rose to a new all-time high and closed up +0.13%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +4.5 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -2.6 bp to 4.447%. Sep T-notes are moving higher today amid the fall in WTI crude oil to a 3.25-month low, which has reduced inflation expectations and is bullish for T-notes. Also, weaker-than-expected US May housing starts and building permits are supportive of T-notes. In addition, markets are hoping for a less hawkish FOMC meeting this week, given that oil prices should decline over time if the Strait of Hormuz reopens as expected. European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell to an 8-week low of 2.920% and is down -1.6 bp to 2.938%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -0.8 bp to 4.804%. Eurozone Q1 labor costs were revised downward to +3.2% y/y from the previously reported +3.4% y/y. The German Jun ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +20.7 to a 4-month high of 10.5, stronger than expectations of -5.5. Swaps are discounting a 17% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23. US Stock Movers Software stocks are falling today, a negative factor for the overall market. Atlassian Corp (TEAM) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) are down more than -3%, and ServiceNow (NOW) and Workday (WDAY) are down more than -2%. Also, Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce (CRM), and Oracle (ORCL) are down more than -1%. In addition, Intuit (INTU) is down -0.90% and Datadog (DDOG) is down -0.50%. Cybersecurity stocks are under pressure today, weighing on the broader market. Zscaler (ZS) is down more than -3%, and Okta (OKTA) and Fortinet (FTNT) are down more than -2%. Also, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Cloudflare (NET) are down more than -1%. Energy stocks and service providers are moving lower today with WTI crude oil down more than -3% to a 3.25-month low. APA Corp (APA) and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -2%. Also, Baker Hughes (BKR), ConocoPhillips (COP), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Devon Energy (DVN), Haliburton (HAL), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are down more than -1%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators are rallying today as the -3% decline in WTI crude oil prices lowers fuel costs and boosts the profitability prospects for the companies. American Airlines Group (AAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are up more than +4%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is up more than +2%. Also, Carnival (CCL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) are up more than +1%. Mining stocks are climbing today with rallies in gold, silver, and copper prices. Newmont Corp (NEM), Coeur Mining (CDE), and Barrick Mining (B) are up more than +2%, and Anglogold Ashanti (AU) is up more than +1%. Also, Hecla Mining (HL) is up +0.54%, and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is up 0.19%. Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) is up more than +7%, adding to the +37% gain over the past two sessions on positive carryover from its record $75 billion initial public offering (IPO) late last week, which was more than four times oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for the stock. Valmont Industries (VMI) is up more than +5% after projecting a goal of $5.4 billion in organic net sales and an EPS target of $35 by the end of 2029. Mobileye Global (MBLY) is up by more than +3% after announcing plans to expand its robotaxi activities beyond self-driving technology into full ownership of an autonomous ride-hailing business. Edwards Lifesciences (EW) is up more than +3% after the US government published a coverage proposal for transcatheter aortic valve replacement, a positive development for the company. Huntsman (HUN) is down more than -20% after agreeing to merge with Olin in an all-stock merger of equals. Huson Pacific Properties (HPP) is down more than -4% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $14. Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY) is down more than -2% after reporting Q1 revenue of $559.2 million, weaker than the consensus of $580.3 million. Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after several analysts cut their price targets on the stock. Earnings Reports(6/16/2026) John Wiley & Sons Inc (WLY) and La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) soared more than +2% on Wednesday after the US and Iran exchanged strikes overnight. The US said it had completed an operation that saw fighter jets strike Iranian air defenses, ground control stations, and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iran shooting down a US Apache helicopter. In response, Iran launched missiles at four US military targets and fired drones at the main US naval base in the Middle East, located in Bahrain, and struck Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait. The increase in tensions risks derailing peace talks between Iran and the US, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, and further tightening global energy supplies. US MBA mortgage applications rose +10.8% in the week ended June 5, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +7.3% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +15.3%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +3 bp to 6.60% from 6.57% in the prior week. US May CPI rose +4.2% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of increase in 3 years. May core CPI rose +2.9% y/y, right on expectations, and the fastest pace of increase in 7 months. Stocks found some support on Wednesday after US May consumer prices came in as expected, easing inflation concerns. Also, sharp gains in crude oil prices on Wednesday lifted energy producers. Stocks extended losses and crude oil prices added to gains on Wednesday when President Trump pledged to strike Iran again after accusing the country of delaying talks on an interim peace deal. Mr. Trump declined to say what targets US forces would hit but said: "We hit them hard yesterday, and we're going to hit them hard again today." Stock indexes sold off sharply on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrials falling to a 2.5-week low. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lifted crude oil prices by more than +2% on Wednesday, sparking losses in stocks and bonds. Chipmakers, AI-infrastructure stocks, and the Magnificent Seven technology stocks all retreated on Wednesday, pressuring the overall market. Also, rising crude oil prices weighed on airline stocks, and trucking companies fell after Amazon expanded its LTL freight offering to all destinations in the US, including third-party warehouses, distribution centers, and retail partners. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed down -1.62%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -1.87%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.98%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) fell -1.62%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) fell -2.07%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 3% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. Overseas stock markets settled lower on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2.5-week low and closed down -0.66%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.42%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closed down -1.89%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) on Wednesday closed down -2.5 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield rose +2.3 bp to 4.540%. T-notes were under pressure on Wednesday after WTI crude oil prices surged more than +2%, which raised inflation expectations. Losses in T-notes were limited after the US May CPI report rose as expected, easing inflation concerns. Also, strong demand for the Treasury’s $39 billion auction of 10-year T-notes was positive for T-notes, as the auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.57, well above the 10-auction average of 2.47. European government bond yields moved higher on Wednesday. The 10-year German Bund yield climbed to a 2.5-week high of 3.088% and finished up +3.4 bp to 3.076%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +2.8 bp to 4.931%. Swaps are discounting a 99% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on Thursday. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks moved lower on Wednesday and led the broader market lower. ON Semiconductor (ON) and Qualcomm (QCOM) closed down more than -6%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and Western Digital (WDC) closed down more than -5%. Also, Broadcom (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -4%, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) closed down more than -3%. Most of the Magnificent Seven technology stocks settled lower on Wednesday, weighing on the overall market. Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) closed down more than -3%, and Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) closed down more than -2%. Also, Microsoft (MSFT) closed down more than -1%. However, Apple (AAPL) bucked the trend, closing up 0.35%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators sold off on Wednesday as WTI crude oil rose more than 2%, boosting fuel costs and dampening the companies’ profitability prospects. Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed down more than -7%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Carnival (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) closed down more than -6%. Also, Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) closed down more than -5%, and American Airlines Group (AAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed down more than -4%. Trucking companies were under pressure on Wednesday after Amazon expanded its LTL freight offering to all destinations in the US, including third-party warehouses, distribution centers, and retail partners. FedEx Freight Holding Co (FDXF) closed down more than -6%, and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and XPO Inc (XPO) closed down more than -5%. Also, ArcBest (ARCB) closed down more than -4%, and Saia Inc (SAIA) and CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) closed down more than -3%. In addition, JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) closed down more than -2%. Energy producers and service providers moved higher on Wednesday as WTI crude oil rose more than +2%. Devon Energy (DVN) closed up more than +5%, and APA Corp (APA) closed up more than +3%. Also, ConocoPhillips (COP) closed up more than +2%, and Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), Chevron (CVX), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +1%. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed down more than -27% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after saying it plans $7 billion in equity and equity-linked financing transactions to fund component purchases. Dianthus Therapeutics (DNTH) closed down more than -9% after peer developer Sanofi halted a late-stage trial of an experimental therapy for a rare autoimmune disorder, citing efficacy concerns. Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) closed down more than -8% after announcing it had commenced an underwritten public offering of $500 million of shares of its common stock. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) closed up more than +22% after raising its full-year revenue forecast to $3.27 billion to $3.30 billion from a previous estimate of $3.24 billion to $3.27 billion, stronger than the consensus of $3.25 billion. Casey’s General Stores (CASY) closed up more than +20% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 revenue of $4.57 billion, above the consensus of $4.32 billion. Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) rose more than +2% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $200 from $185, saying concerns around the impact of regulation on resale ticket pricing are overstated. Illumina (ILMN) closed up more than +1% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $185. Earnings Reports(6/11/2026) Adobe Inc (ADBE), Lennar Corp (LEN), RH (RH). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

The markets are discounting a 0% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) are up more than +1% today after the US and Iran exchanged strikes overnight. The US said it had completed an operation that saw fighter jets strike Iranian air defenses, ground control stations, and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iran shooting down a US Apache helicopter. In response, Iran launched missiles at four US military targets and fired drones at the main US naval base in the Middle East, located in Bahrain, and struck Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait. Gains in crude prices accelerated today when President Trump said that Iran has taken too long to make a deal and that they will now have to “pay the price,” fueling concerns that the US may escalate military attacks on Iran. US MBA mortgage applications rose +10.8% in the week ended June 5, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +7.3% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +15.3%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +3 bp to 6.60% from 6.57% in the prior week. US May CPI rose +4.2% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of increase in 3 years. May core CPI rose +2.9% y/y, right on expectations, and the fastest pace of increase in 7 months. Stocks found some support today after US May consumer prices came in as expected, easing inflation concerns. Also, gains in crude oil prices today are lifting energy producers. Stock indexes are sliding for a second day today, as chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks retreat. Also, rising crude oil prices are weighing on airline stocks, and trucking companies are under pressure today after Amazon expanded its LTL freight offering to all destinations in the US, including third-party warehouses, distribution centers, and retail partners. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.88%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.80%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.71%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.97%. Story Continues Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 recovered from a 2.5-week low and is up +0.03%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.42%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closed down -1.89%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -1 tick, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +0.2 bp to 4.519%. T-notes are under slight pressure today after a +1% jump in WTI crude oil, which has raised inflation expectations. Supply pressures are also weighing on T-note prices as the Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10-year T-notes later today. T-notes recovered from their worst levels after the US May CPI report rose as expected, easing inflation concerns. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German Bund yield climbed to a 2.5-week high of 3.088% and is up +1.7 bp to 3.060%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +1.7 bp to 4.920%. Swaps are discounting a 100% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on Thursday. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are leading the broader market lower today. ON Semiconductor (ON) is down more than -5%, and Qualcomm (QCOM) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Western Digital (WDC) and Broadcom (AVGO) are down more than -4%, andAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are down more than -3%. In addition, Nvidia (NVDA), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Micron Technology (MU) are down more than -2%. Trucking companies are under pressure today after Amazon expanded its LTL freight offering to all destinations in the US, including third-party warehouses, distribution centers, and retail partners. Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is down more than -4%, and FedEx Freight Holding Co (FDXF), ArcBest (ARCB), and XPO Inc (XPO) are down more than -3%. Also, Saia Inc (SAIA) is down more than -2%, and CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) and JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) are down more than -2%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators are falling today, as WTI crude oil is up more than 1%, which is boosting fuel costs and dampening profitability prospects. United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), and Carnival (CCL) are down more than -4%, and American Airlines Group (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are down more than -3%. Also, Southwest Airlines (LUV) is down more than -2%. Energy producers and service providers are moving higher today, with WTI crude oil up more than +1%. Devon Energy (DVN) is up more than +5%, and APA Corp (APA) is up more than +3%. Also, ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Chevron (CVX) are up more than +2%. In addition, Diamondback Energy (FANG), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Halliburton (HAL), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +1%. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is down more than -17% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after saying it plans $7 billion in equity and equity-linked financing transactions to fund component purchases. Dianthus Therapeutics (DNTH) is down more than -13% after peer developer Sanofi halted a late-stage trial of an experimental therapy for a rare autoimmune disorder, citing efficacy concerns. Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) is down more than -7% after announcing it had commenced an underwritten public offering of $500 million of shares of its common stock. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) is up more than +27% after raising its full-year revenue forecast to $3.27 billion to $3.30 billion from a previous estimate of $3.24 billion to $3.27 billion, stronger than the consensus of $3.25 billion. Casey’s General Stores (CASY) is up more than +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 revenue of $4.57 billion, above the consensus of $4.32 billion. Illumina (ILMN) is up more than +3% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $185. Hinge Health (HNGE) is up more than +2% after raising its full-year revenue forecast to $818 million to $824 million from a previous estimate of $798 million to $804 million. Earnings Reports(6/10/2026) Chewy Inc (CHWY), Core & Main Inc (CNM), Oracle Corp (ORCL). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

US MBA mortgage applications fell -2.5% in the week ended May 29, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -2.9% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -2.3%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -8 bp to 6.57% from 6.65% in the prior week. US Apr factory orders rose +4.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +4.6% m/m and the largest increase in 11 months. The US May ISM services index rose +0.9 to 54.5, stronger than expectations of 53.8. The May ISM services prices paid sub-index rose +0.6 to a 3.75-year high of 71.3, although below expectations of 72.3. The US May ADP employment change rose 122,000, slightly stronger than expectations of 120,000 and the biggest increase in 16 months. Signs of strength in the US economy are also supportive of stocks after today’s reports showed the May ADP employment change, the May ISM services index, and Apr factory orders rose more than expected. On the positive side, AI-infrastructure spending continues to support technology stocks. Marvell Technology is up more than +7% today, adding to Tuesday’s 32% surge, to lead chipmakers higher after Nvidia CEO Huang predicted the company would be the next to hit a $1 trillion valuation, more than five times its current market capitalization. Stock indexes are sliding today, with the Nasdaq 100 falling from a new record high. The broader market is under pressure today as the US and Iran clashed overnight, sending WTI crude oil prices up more than +1% to a 1.5-week high. Shortly after disabling an empty oil tanker heading back to Iran, the US military said it came under missile and drone attacks as Iran targeted the US’s Bahrain naval base and the Ali Al-Salem airbase in Kuwait. US forces struck a communications tower on the Iranian island of Qeshm near the Strait of Hormuz as part of the skirmishes. In addition, weakness in software companies, cybersecurity, and private credit stocks today is weighing on the overall market. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.40%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.74%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.08%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.48%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.08%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 3% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. The generally favorable Q1 earnings season is winding down. As of today, 84% of the 485 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.66%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.22%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average rallied to a new record high and closed up +2.50%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -6 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +3.7 bp to 4.481%. T-note prices are under pressure today as an escalation of US-Iran tensions lifted WTI crude oil by more than +1% to a 1.5-week high, boosting inflation expectations. T-notes added to their losses today after US economic reports showed the May ADP employment change, the May ISM services index, and Apr factory orders rose more than expected, hawkish factors for Fed policy. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German Bund yield is up +4.5 bp to 3.019%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +5.2 bp to 4.911%. The Eurozone May S&P composite PMI was revised upward by +1.0 to 48.5 from the previously reported 47.5. Eurozone Apr PPI rose +4.9% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of increase in more than 3 years. The UK May S&P services PMI was revised upward by +1.4 to 49.3 from the previously reported 47.9. Swaps are discounting a 97% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Software stocks are sliding today, pressuring the broader market. Datadog (DDOG) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and International Business Machines (IBM) is down more than -6% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Atlassian Corp (TEAM) is down more than -6%, and Oracle (ORCL) is down more than -5%. In addition, ServiceNow (NOW), Salesforce (CRM), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) are down more than -4%, and Microsoft (MSFT) and Intuit (INTU) are down more than -3%. Finally, Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK), and Adobe Systems (ADBE) are down more than -2%. Cybersecurity stocks are retreating today, led by a -6% decline in Palo Alto Networks (PANW) despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings, as it failed to meet elevated buy-side expectations. Also, Okta (OKTA) is down more than -6%, and Zscaler (ZS) is down more than -5%. In addition, Cloudflare (NET) is down more than -3%, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) is down more than -1%, and Fortinet (FTNT) is down -0.45%. Private credit stocks are faltering today as the 17% redemption requests for Cliffwater’s private credit fund weighed on alternative asset stocks. Ares Management (ARES) and KKR & Co (KKR) are down more than -5%, and Carlyle Group (CG) and Blackstone (BX) are down more than -4%. Also, Apollo Global Management (APO) is down more than -3%, and Blue Owl Capital (OWL) and BlackRock (BLK) are down more than -2%. Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing today, providing support to the overall market. Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Sandisk (SNDK), Intel (INTC), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +4%. Also, Applied Materials (AMAT), ON Semiconductor (ON), and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc are up more than +3%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Lam Research (LRCX), Analog Devices (ADI), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are up more than +2%. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is down more than -4% after analysts noted the company’s annual guidance implies the outlook for the second half of the year is weaker than expected. Gitlab (GTLB) is down more than -3% after announcing that it will cut about 14% of its workforce and exit 22 countries as part of a restructuring. GameStop (GME) is up more than +7% after reporting Q1 net sales rose +14% y/y to $835.3 million and said its board of directors approves a $2 billion share repurchase authorization. Marvel Technology (MRVL) is up more than +6% today, adding to Tuesday’s +32% surge, after Nvidia CEO Huang predicted that the company will be the next to hit a $1 trillion valuation, more than five times its current market capitalization. Medtronic Plc (MDT) is up more than +4% after reporting Q4 revenue of $9.81 billion, above the consensus of $9.64 billion. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is up more than +2% after the company and Nippon Paint abandoned efforts to jointly acquire Akzo Nobel. IREN Ltd (IREN) is up more than +1% after signing a transmission connection agreement to support a planned 800-megawatt data center campus in Bundey, South Australia. Earnings Reports(6/3/2026) Broadcom Inc (AVGO), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD), Five Below Inc (FIVE), Macy's Inc (M), Medtronic PLC (MDT), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI), PVH Corp (PVH), Thor Industries Inc (THO), Veeva Systems Inc (VEEV). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

On the negative side, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said, "With inflation running above the Fed's 2% definition of price stability or over five years, now is not the time to let down our guard, and we must continue to signal our commitment to price stability and our willingness to take the actions necessary to achieve our mandate." Fed comments on Friday were mixed for stocks and bonds. On the positive side, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Fed interest rate policy is in a good place and that she's "cautiously optimistic" about the US economy, noting that "there's no urgency to make an adjustment" to interest rates. Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, "I think it's premature for me to conclude we need to be raising rates right away and that we need to keep watching the data and watching how the conflict in the Middle East unfolds before I want to make any adjustments." Friday’s US economic news showed strength in the economy that is positive for stocks. The May MNI Chicago PMI rose +13.5 to 62.7, stronger than expectations of 50.3 and the strongest pace of expansion in 4.25 years. The markets are awaiting President Trump’s approval of a preliminary deal between the US and Iran to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said Friday he's making a "final determination" on a preliminary deal to extend a ceasefire with Iran. Stock indexes settled higher on Friday, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs. Stocks are supported by prospects for a peace deal in the Middle East, which are easing pressure on crude oil prices and reducing inflation concerns. Also, evidence of relentless demand for AI-infrastructure upgrades is pushing technology stocks higher, led by a 32% surge in Dell Technologies on Friday after it gave a sales outlook that far surpassed analysts’ estimates. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed up +0.22%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.72%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.36%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.19%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +0.31%. Story Continues Crude oil prices fell more than -1% on Friday to a 5-week low as the US and Iran tentatively agreed to extend a ceasefire by 60 days, fueling optimism that the Strait of Hormuz may soon reopen. Even if a truce extension is agreed, several hurdles remain before crude flows can resume. Among them, mines in the Hormuz waterway must be removed, shut-in oil fields may take months to restart, and damage to energy infrastructure from drone and missile strikes needs to be repaired. The markets are discounting a 2% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. The generally favorable Q1 earnings season is winding down. As of Friday, 84% of the 485 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.08%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.73%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average rallied to a new record high and closed up +2.53%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Friday closed up +1 tick. The 10-year T-note yield rose +0.2 bp to 4.449%. Friday’s decline in WTI crude oil prices to a 5-week low eased inflation expectations and supported modest gains in T-notes. Also, bond dealer short covering was supportive of T-note prices as dealers covered their short positions placed against T-notes to hedge against the Treasury’s $215 billion T-note auctions over this past week. Gains in T-notes were limited after the May MNI Chicago PMI rose more than expected at the strongest pace in 4.25 years. Also, Friday’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. European government bond yields moved lower on Friday. The 10-year German Bund yield fell -2.4 bp to 2.938%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -0.2 bp to 4.812%. German May CPI (EU harmonized) fell -0.1% m/m and rose +2.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of unchanged m/m and +2.8% y/y. The German May unemployment change unexpectedly fell by -12,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of a +10,000 increase. The May unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 6.3%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 6.4%. ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta signaled his support for an ECB rate hike, saying, "The forward-looking picture system seems to call for a recalibration of the monetary policy stance to counter the risk of persistent inflationary tensions." ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said he's likely to support an ECB rate hike in June and "a second rate hike is more likely than not." Swaps are discounting an 89% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Software stocks rallied on Friday, as Atlassian Corp (TEAM) closed up more than +15%, ServiceNow (NOW) closed up more than +13%, and International Business Machines (IBM) closed up more than +12% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Workday (WDAY) closed more than +11% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Oracle (ORCL) closed up more than +10%. In addition, Datadog (DDOG) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed up more than +9%, and Salesforce (CRM) closed up more than +8%. Finally, Adobe Systems (ADBE) closed up more than +7%, and Microsoft (MSFT) and Intuit (INTU) closed up more than +5%. Okta (OKTA) closed up more than +30% to lead cybersecurity stocks higher after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of 91 cents, above the consensus of 85 cents, and raising its 2027 adjusted EPS forecast to $3.79 to $3.87 from a previous estimate of $3.74 to $3.82, better than the consensus of $3.78. Also, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) closed up more than +9%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) closed up more than +8%. In addition, Zscaler (ZS) closed up more than +7%, and Cloudflare (NET) and Fortinet (FTNT) closed up more than +6%. AI-infrastructure stocks were stronger on Friday, providing support to the broader market. Micron Technology (MU) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed up more than +5%, and Broadcom (AVGO) closed up more than +4%. Also, Qualcomm (QCOM) and Sandisk (SNDK) closed up more than +3%. Dell Technologies (DELL) closed up more than +32% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 total revenue of $43.84 billion, well above the consensus of $35.52 billion and raising its 2027 revenue forecast to $165 billion to $169 billion from a previous estimate of $138 billion to $142 billion, stronger than the consensus of $142.12 billion. NetApp (NTAP) closed up more than +22% after reporting Q4 net revenue of $1.95 billion, better than the consensus of $1.87 billion, and forecasting 2027 revenue of $7.33 billion to $7.58 billion, well above the consensus of $7.20 billion. Nextpower (NXT) closed up more than +14% after agreeing to buy Prevalon Energy for up to $365 million in cash and stock. The Gap (GAP) closed down more than -15% after reporting Q1 comparable sales rose +2.00%, weaker than the consensus of +2.93%, and cutting its 2027 net sales estimate to +1% to +2% from a previous forecast of +2% to +3%. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) closed down more than -11% after reporting Q1 total comparable sales rose +8.00%, below the consensus of +8.48%. SentinelOne (S) closed down more than -8% after reporting Q1 revenue of $276.7 million, below the consensus of $277.3 million, and forecasting Q2 revenue of $289 million to $291 million, weaker than the consensus of $292.1 million. Clorox (CLX) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after CEO Rendle Blair said she is stepping down for health reasons. Viasat (VSAT) closed down more than -6% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.17 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.19 billion. Costco Wholesale (COST) closed down more than -3% despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings after several analysts flagged moderating membership growth as a concern going forward. Autodesk (ADSK) closed down more than -3% after several analysts said the company’s $3.6 billion purchase of MaintainX was deemed too expensive. Earnings Reports(6/1/2026) Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE), Science Applications International Corp (SAIC), Smith-Midland Corp (SMID). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

US Apr capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts unexpectedly fell -1.1% m/m versus expectations of a +0.4% m/m increase and the biggest decline in a year. The US Apr core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose +3.3% y/y, right on expectations and the largest increase in 2.5 years. US Apr personal spending rose +0.5% m/m, right on expectations. Apr personal income was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m. US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +5,000 to 215,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 211,000. Stocks also found support on Thursday amid Fed-friendly US economic news. The Apr core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose as expected. Also, April capital goods new orders unexpectedly declined, weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, and Q1 GDP was revised downward. In addition, Apr new home sales fell more than expected. The 10-year T-note yield gave up an early advance and is down -2 bp to 4.46%. Stocks initially moved lower on Thursday after fresh US attacks on Iran boosted crude oil prices and fueled doubt over whether an end to the war is imminent. The US struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week, and Kuwait said it responded to Iranian missile and drone threats. Stock indexes recovered from early losses on Thursday and settled higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 climbing to new all-time highs. Stocks rebounded after Axios reported that the US and Iran reached a deal to extend the ceasefire for sixty days and for negotiations to start on Iran's nuclear program, with President Trump still needing to approve the terms. The memorandum of understanding would state that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be "unrestricted," with Iran required to remove all mines from the strait within 30 days. Crude oil prices gave up a +3% advance on the news. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Thursday closed up +0.58%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.05%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.84%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.59%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +0.88%. Story Continues US Q1 GDP was revised downward to +1.6% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of no change at +2.0%. Q1 personal consumption was revised lower to +1.4% from the previously reported +1.6%, and the Q1 core PCE price index was revised upward to a 3-year high of +4.4% from the previously reported +4.3%. US Apr new home sales fell -6.2% m/m to 622,000, weaker than expectations of 660,000. Hawkish Fed comments were negative for stocks and bonds. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said inflation is headed in the wrong direction and she would be prepared to raise interest rates if that persists. Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said US consumer prices are still "much too high" and that bringing down inflation remains his top priority. In addition, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said inflation is meaningfully above target, expectations are rising, and the Fed should respond to higher real rates by hiking policy. Crude oil prices gave up a +3% advance on Thursday and finished only slightly higher after Axios reported that the US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. Crude prices initially jumped on Thursday after US forces shot down four Iranian drones fired at a commercial ship and hit a launch site near the Strait of Hormuz. Also, the US Treasury added Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority to its Iran-related sanctions list to prevent Iran from profiting from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by charging tolls. In addition, Israel stepped up attacks on Lebanon and said its ground forces would move further into the country, potentially complicating US-Iran talks on an interim peace deal. The markets are discounting a 0% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. The generally favorable Q1 earnings season is winding down. As of Thursday, 83% of the 482 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.25%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 5-week low and closed up +0.12%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closed down -0.47%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Thursday closed up +4.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield fell -2.8 bp to 4.455%. Jun T-note prices recovered from early losses and climbed to a 2-week high, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2-week low of 4.432%. T-notes moved higher Thursday on Fed-friendly economic news. Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, Apr core capital goods orders unexpectedly declined, Q1 GDP was revised lower, and the Apr core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose as expected. Also, Apr new home sales fell more than expected. T-notes maintained their gains on solid demand for the Treasury’s $44 billion auction of 7-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.52, better than the 10-auction average of 2.50. T-notes initially moved lower on Thursday after WTI crude oil prices rose more than +3%, which raised inflation expectations. Also, hawkish comments from Fed Governor Lisa Cook, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari undercut T-note prices, as they expressed concern about persistently high inflation. European government bond yields moved lower on Thursday. The 10-year German Bund yield fell -2.5 bp to 2.962%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 5-week low of 4.791% and finished down -4.4 bp to 4.814%. The Eurozone May economic sentiment indicator rose +0.3 to 93.5, stronger than expectations of no change at 93.0. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the impact of the Iran war will take longer to show in the labor market, and the "second round" of the energy shock on the Eurozone will persist for a while. Swaps are discounting an 89% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks rallied on Thursday to lead the broader market higher. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed up more than +11%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up more than +4%. Also, Sandisk (SNDK) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +3%, and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) and Broadcom (AVGO) closed up more than +1%. Drone-related stocks surged on Thursday after the Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration is exploring funding deals with a group of drone companies. Unusual Machines (UMAC) closed up more than +59%, and Red Cat (RCAT) closed up more than +34%. Also, AIRO Group Holdings (AIRO) closed up more than +21%, and AeroVironment (AVAV) and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) closed up more than +14%. Snowflake (SNOW) closed up more than +36% after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.39 billion, better than the consensus of $1.33 billion and raising its 2027 product revenue forecast to $5.84 billion from a previous estimate of $5.66 billion, well above the consensus of $5.68 billion. Dollar Tree (DLTR) closed up more than +17% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.74, stronger than the consensus of $1.55, and raising its 2027 adjusted EPS estimate to $6.70 to $7.10 from a previous estimate of $6.50 to $6.90, above the consensus of $6.69. Agilent (A) closed up more than +16% after raising its full-year revenue forecast to $7.39 billion-$7.49 billion from a previous estimate of $7.3 billion-$7.5 billion yuan, above the consensus of $7.39 billion. Best Buy (BBY) closed up more than +15% after forecasting Q2 comparable sales up +1.00%, stronger than the consensus of down -0.32%. Hormel Foods (HRL) closed up more than +12% after reporting Q2 adjusted operating margin of 9.9%, stronger than the consensus of 8.9%. Heico (HEI) closed up more than +11% after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.38 billion, well above the consensus of $1.25 billion. Cargurus Inc (CARG) closed up more than +4% after Barclays initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of overweight and a price target of $35. Photronics (PLAB) closed down more than -36% after forecasting Q3 adjusted EPS of 39 cents to 45 cents, weaker than the consensus of 54 cents. Symbotic (SYM) closed down more than -9% after Softbank Group is said to sell 5.6 million shares of its holdings of SYM in an unregistered block trade between $51 and $53.63 a share. Tyson Foods (TSN) closed down more than -6% after announcing that CEO King will step down after five years. Trade Desk (TTD) closed down more than 5% after Rothschild & Co Redburn reinstated coverage of the stock with a sell recommendation and a price target of $11. HP Inc. (HPQ) closed down more than -2% after lowering the upper end of its full-year EPS estimate to $2.90-$3.10 from a previous view of $2.90-$3.20, citing rising memory and storage costs. Earnings Reports(5/29/2026) American Woodmark Corp (AMWD), Atlantic International Corp (ATLN), Buckle Inc/The (BKE), Critical Metals Corp (CRML), Genesco Inc (GCO), Liberty Live Holdings Inc (LLYVA), Navan Inc (NAVN), Pioneer Bancorp Inc/NY (PBFS), Richtech Robotics Inc (RR), Whitestone REIT (WSR). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a recently released monthly report that global oil inventories declined at a rate of about 4 million bpd in March and April, and the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if the conflict ends next month. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June. Crude oil prices are down more than -3% today at a 5-week low after Iranian state television said it obtained an unofficial draft of the US-Iran memorandum, which said US military forces would lift the naval blockade of Iran while Iran would allow restored commercial transit shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Also, Secretary of State Rubio said today that "an interim agreement is only a couple of days away." The US May Richmond Fed manufacturing survey of current conditions rose +10 to a 4.5-year high of 13. stronger than expectations of 4. US MBA mortgage applications fell -8.5% in the week ended May 22, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -0.4% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -18.1%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +9 bp to a 9-month high of 6.65% from 6.56% in the prior week. Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, lower oil prices, and easing bond yields are supportive for the broader equity market. Crude oil prices are down by more than -3% amid optimism that oil flows from the Middle East will normalize soon, driven by a US-Iran peace deal. The decline in crude prices has eased inflation expectations and lowered bond yields, with the 10-year T-note yield falling to a 1.5-week low of 4.45% today. Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new record high and the Nasdaq 100 falling from a new all-time high. The weakness in energy producers and cybersecurity stocks today is a drag on the overall market. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.07%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.54%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.44%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.07%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.47%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 2% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. Earnings season is winding down, and earnings reports have been supportive of stocks. As of today, 83% of the 475 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down by -0.05%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -1.25%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average rallied to a new record high and closed up +0.01%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +3 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.0 bp to 4.475%. June T-note prices climbed to a 1.5-week high today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.445%. Today’s -4% decline in WTI crude oil prices reduced inflation expectations and is bullish for T-note prices. Supply pressures are limiting gains in T-notes, as the Treasury will auction $28 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $70 billion of 5-year T-notes later today. European government bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German Bund yield is up +0.9 bp to 2.988%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 5-week low of 4.804% and is down -2.9 bp to 4.846%. Eurozone Apr new car registrations rose +5.1% y/y to 972,000 units. ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said, "The likeliest outcome is an ECB interest rate hike in June" as the conflict in the Middle East and subsequent rise in energy prices are proving to be more prolonged. German economic advisers to Chancellor Merz cut their 2026 German GDP forecast to 0.5% from a November estimate of 0.9%. Swaps are discounting a 95% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Airlines and cruise line operators are moving higher today as WTI crude oil prices fell more than -3% to a 5-week low, reducing fuel costs and bolstering profitability prospects. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are up more than +6%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Carnival (CCL), and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) are up more than +4%. Also, Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than +3%, and American Airlines Group (AAL) is up more than 2%. Energy producers and energy service providers are falling today with WTI crude oil prices down more than -3% to a 5-week low. Baker Hughes (BKR) is down more than -5%, and Halliburton (HAL) and SLB Ltd (SLB) are down more than -3%. Also, Devon Energy (DVN), Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), APA Corp (APA), and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -1%. Zscaler (ZS) is down more than -30% to lead cybersecurity stocks lower and losers in the Nasdaq 100 after forecasting Q4 revenue of $875 million to $878 million, below the consensus of $879.1 million. Also, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cloudflare (NET), Fortinet (FTNT), and Okta (OKTA) are down more than -3%. Dycom Industries (DY) is up more than +29% after reporting Q1 contract revenue of $1.96 billion, well above the consensus of $1.67 billion. Bath & Body Works (BBWI) is up more than +12% after reporting Q1 net sales of $1.38 billion, better than the consensus of $1.36 billion. MGM Resorts International (MGM) is up more than +8% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $46. GXO Logistics (GXO) is up more than +4% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $65. FedEx (FDX) is up more than +2% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $460. Verra Mobility (VRRM) is down more than -72% after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $1.19-$1.25 from a prior estimate of $1.32-$1.38, weaker than the consensus of $1.36, and said Avis Budget had terminated its contract with the company. PDD Holdings (PDD) is down more than -10% after reporting Q1 revenue of 106.23 billion yuan, well below the consensus of 108.6 billion yuan. Boston Scientific (BSX) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after CEO Mahoney mentioned potential near-term challenges in his presentation at an industry conference. GlobalFoundries (GFS) is down more than 9% after Mubadala Investment said it is selling a block of 22 million GFS shares at $ 85.80 to $ 86.30 each. Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) is down more than -3% after reporting a Q1 gross margin of 32.6%, below the consensus of 33.4%. Earnings Reports(5/27/2026) Agilent Technologies Inc (A), Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI), Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (DKS), Everpure Inc (P), HEICO Corp (HEI), HP Inc (HPQ), Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL), nCino Inc (NCNO), Nutanix Inc (NTNX), Salesforce Inc (CRM), Snowflake Inc (SNOW), Synopsys Inc (SNPS), U-Haul Holding Co (UHAL). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) remain extremely volatile and are susceptible to headlines from the Iran war. Crude oil prices fell more than -2% today to a 2.5-week low after the US and Iran said peace talks were progressing. However, crude prices rebounded from their worst levels after US and Israeli jets struck missile sites in Iran and boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. US economic news today is mixed for stocks. The Apr Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose +0.29 to a 13-month high of 0.14, stronger than expectations of -0.03. Also, the Mar S&P Composite-20 home price index rose +0.83% y/y, a smaller increase than the +0.90% y/y expected and the smallest year-on-year gain in more than 2.5 years. In addition, the Conference Board US May consumer confidence index fell -0.7 to 93.1, a smaller decline than expectations of 92.0. However, stock index futures were undercut after the US Central Command said US forces struck Iranian missile-launch sites and boats trying to place mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Also, weakness in health insurance stocks and energy producers has knocked the Dow Jones Industrial Average into negative territory. Stock indexes are mostly rallying today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs. Stocks are finding support as a drop in crude oil prices and bond yields fuels a rally in technology stocks after officials signaled the US was nearing a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil flows. According to the Washington Post, the US and Iran have developed a memorandum that would extend the ceasefire by 60 days as the two sides seek a permanent deal, and if agreed, the Strait of Hormuz would be de-mined and reopened in the meantime. Secretary of State Rubio said negotiations will still "take a few days" as both sides discuss language in an initial document. WTI crude oil fell to a 2.5-week low today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.47%. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.81%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.74%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.77%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +1.71%. Story Continues The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a recently released monthly report that global oil inventories declined at a rate of about 4 million bpd in March and April, and the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if the conflict ends next month. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June. The markets are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. Earnings season is winding down, and reports thus far have been supportive of stocks. As of today, 83% of the 475 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. Overseas stock markets are lower today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.81%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.17%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closed down -0.25%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +17 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -6.5 bp to 4.493%. June T-note prices rallied to a 1.5-week high, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.473%. Today’s -2% fall in WTI crude oil prices has reduced inflation expectations and is bullish for T-note prices. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-month low of 2.375% today. Limiting gains in T-notes is supply pressure, as the Treasury will auction $217 billion of T-notes and floating-rate notes this week, beginning with today’s $69 billion auction of 2-year T-notes. European government bond yields are mixed. The 10-year German Bund yield is up +3.6 bp to 2.982%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 5-week low of 4.820% and is down -2.8 bp to 4.869%. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said even if there's a quick resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, "I think a rate hike by the ECB in June will be needed." She added that "given the high persistence of the energy shock, I believe that the negative impact on economic growth will also be stronger" than initially expected. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the ECB will probably raise its quarterly inflation outlook at next month's policy meeting as the Iran war keeps energy prices elevated. Swaps are discounting a 92% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are gaining today, helping lift the broader market. Micron Technology (MCHP) is up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and ON Semiconductor (ON) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +8%. Also, Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +6%, and Western Digital (WDC) and Analog Devices (ADI) are up more than +5%. In addition, Microchip Technology (MCHP) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +4%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are up more than +3%. Airlines and cruise line operators are climbing today, with WTI crude oil prices down more than -3%, which reduces fuel costs and bolsters profitability. American Airlines Group (AAL) is up more than +6%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is up more than +5%. Also, Alaska Air Group (ALK), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) are up more than +4%. In addition, Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Carnival (CCL) are up more than +3%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than 2%. Rocket and satellite companies are moving higher today after SpaceX filed to become the largest-ever initial public offering. Redwire (RDW) is up more than +27%, and AST Spacemobile (ASTS) is up more than +19%. Also, Firefly Aerospace (FLY) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) are up more than +14%. Energy producers and energy service providers are falling today after WTI crude oil prices slid to a 2.5-week low. Chevron (CVX) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones industrials. Also, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is down more than -2%, and Devon Energy (DVN), ConocoPhillips (COP), APA Corp (APA), and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -1%. Defensive health insurance stocks are under pressure with today’s rally in the broader market. Centene (CNC) and Elevance Health (ELV) are down more than -2%. Also, Humana (HUM), CVS Health (CVS), and Cigna Group (CI) are down more than -1%. Allient (ALNT) is up more than +9% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $80. Autoliv (ALV) is up more than +2% after Handelsbanken upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $145. AutoZone (AZO) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 net sales of $4.84 billion, below the consensus of $4.87 billion. Also, O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Earnings Reports(5/26/2026) AutoZone Inc (AZO), Box Inc (BOX), Champion Homes Inc (SKY), CSW Industrials Inc (CSW), Digital Turbine Inc (APPS), Modine Manufacturing Co (MOD), Ooma Inc (OOMA), Semtech Corp (SMTC), Transcat Inc (TRNS), Zscaler Inc (ZS). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) remain extremely volatile and are susceptible to headlines from the Iran war. Prices whipsawed lower and higher on Friday and finished with modest gains as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Crude prices fell into negative territory briefly on Friday following a Reuters report that said Qatar has sent a negotiating team to Tehran in coordination with the US to help secure a deal to end the war. Iran said the latest US proposal has "narrowed the gaps" between the two sides. That proposal suggested a short-term deal that would see Iran open the Strait of Hormuz and the US lift a blockade of Iranian ports, with both sides then going into deeper negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. Also, on Friday, Secretary of State Rubio noted “slight progress” in the negotiations. Late Monday, President Trump said he called off a strike on Iran scheduled for Tuesday after Gulf allies asked for more time to give diplomacy a chance. The University of Michigan's US May 1-year inflation expectations rate was revised upward to a 9-month high of +4.8% from +4.5%, stronger than the +4.6% expected. Also, the May 5-10 year inflation expectations rate was revised upward to a 7-month high of 3.9%, stronger than expectations of no change at 3.4%. The University of Michigan’s May US consumer sentiment index was revised lower to a record low of 44.8 (data from 1978), weaker than expectations of no change at 48.2. Stocks fell back from their best levels on Friday after the University of Michigan's US May consumer sentiment index was revised lower to a record low, and May inflation expectations were revised upward. Also, hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller weighed on stocks when he said he supports making clear that the Fed's next interest rate move is just as likely to be an increase as "inflation is not headed in the right direction." Stock indexes settled higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting 1-week highs, and the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new all-time high. Stocks were supported by hopes that the US and Iran are moving closer to a peace deal. Also, chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks rallied amid the unrelenting enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. In addition, Workday rose by more than +5% to lead software stocks higher after reporting better-than-expected Q1 results and offering a positive outlook. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed up +0.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.58%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.42%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.35%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +0.42%. Story Continues Last Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a monthly report that global oil inventories declined at a rate of about 4 million bpd in March and April, and the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if the conflict ends next month. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June. The markets are discounting a 0% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. Earnings season is winding down, and reports thus far have been supportive of stocks. As of Friday, 83% of the 475 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. Overseas stock markets settled higher on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 2-week high and closed up +0.99%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 3-week low and closed up +0.87%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average rose to a 1-week high and closed up sharply by +2.68%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Friday closed up +0.5 of a tick. The 10-year T-note yield fell -1.2 bp to 4.558%. T-notes posted modest gains on Friday amid a decline in inflation expectations, as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-month low of 2.401%. Also, Friday’s downward revision in the University of Michigan US May consumer sentiment index to a record low was supportive for T-notes. T-notes gave up most of their gains on Friday after Fed Governor Waller said he supports a Fed rate hike if inflation doesn’t soon slow. Also, the upward revision in the University of Michigan’s May inflation expectations rate was bearish for T-notes. In addition, the strength in stocks on Friday curbed safe-haven demand for government debt and is weighing on T-notes. European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German Bund yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 3.022% and finished down -6.0 bp to 3.038%. The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 2-week low of 4.887% and finished down -6.8 bp to 4.897%. The German May IFO business confidence index unexpectedly rose +0.4 to 84.9, stronger than expectations of a decline to 84.2. The German June GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose +3.3 to -29.8, stronger than expectations of a decline to -34.0. ECB Governing Council member Alexander Demarco said, "In June, the ECB will probably need to hike interest rates as we need to send a signal that we are committed to our medium-term 2% inflation target." UK Apr retail sales ex-auto fuel fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m. Swaps are discounting an 88% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Chipmakers rallied on Friday, helping lift the broader market. Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up more than +11% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed up more than +5%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Analog Devices (ADI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed up more than +3%, and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Marvell Technology (MRVL), ASML Holding NV (ASML), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) closed up more than +2%. In addition, Lam Research (LRCX) and Applied Materials (AMAT) closed up more than +1%. Workday (WDAY) closed up more than +5% to lead software stocks higher after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.66, stronger than the consensus of $2.51, and forecasting Q2 subscription revenue of $2.46 billion, better than the consensus of $2.45 billion. Also, Atlassian Corp (TEAM) and Intuit (INTU) closed up more than +4%, and Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) closed up more than +2%. In addition, Datadog (DDOG) and Oracle (ORCL) closed up more than +1%. Dell Technologies (DELL) closed up more than +16% to lead gainers in the S&P 50 after Wells Fargo Securities raised its price target on the stock to $270 from $180. IMAX Corp. (IMAX) closed up more than +15% after the Wall Street Journal reported the company is exploring a sale and has approached entertainment companies as potential buyers. Estee Lauder (EL) closed up more than +11% after its proposed merger with Puig Brands SA fell apart due to compensation demands from Charlotte Tilbury. Zoom Communications (ZM) closed up more than +9% after reporting Q1 of $1.24 billion, above the consensus of $1.22 billion, and raising its 2027 revenue forecast to $5.08 billion-$5.09 billion from a previous forecast of $5.07 billion-$5.08 billion, better than the consensus of $5.07 billion. Ross Stores (ROST) closed up more than +8% after reporting Q1 sales of $6.01 billion, stronger than the consensus of $5.61 billion. Alcoa (AA) closed up more than +7% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $80. Merck & Co (MRK) closed up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use recommended approval of Keytruda in combination with Padcev for the treatment of bladder cancer. Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) closed down more than -4% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after forecasting 2027 net bookings of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion, well below the consensus of $9.11 billion. Coinbase Global (COIN) closed down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500 as the price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) fell more than -2% to a 3-week low, Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) closed down more than -4% after Bernstein initiated coverage on the stock with an underperform rating and a price target of $7.70. Denali Therapeutics (DNLI) closed down more than -3% after reporting that a mid-stage study of an experimental therapy for Parkinson’s disease, with partner Biogen, did not meet its primary or secondary endpoints. Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) closed down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $39. Earnings Reports(5/26/2026) AutoZone Inc (AZO), Box Inc (BOX), Champion Homes Inc (SKY), CSW Industrials Inc (CSW), Digital Turbine Inc (APPS), Modine Manufacturing Co (MOD), Ooma Inc (OOMA), Semtech Corp (SMTC), Transcat Inc (TRNS), Zscaler Inc (ZS). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

Last Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a monthly report that global oil inventories declined at a rate of about 4 million bpd in March and April, and the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if the conflict ends next month. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June. WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) remain extremely volatile and are susceptible to headlines from the Iran war. Prices are down by more than -3% today, with NATO discussing escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz should the route be closed after early July, which could return some crude supplies to the global market. Late Monday, President Trump said he called off a strike on Iran scheduled for Tuesday after Gulf allies asked for more time to give diplomacy a chance. US MBA mortgage applications fell -2.3% in the week ended May 1, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -4.1%, and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -0.1%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +10 bp to 6.56% from 6.46% in the prior week. Semiconductor stocks are climbing today, providing support to the broader market. Nvidia is up more than +1% ahead of its earnings results after today’s close. Nvidia’s earnings will provide an update on the state of the AI economy, with Q1 sales expected to be up 80%, but the markets will be focused on what the company has to say about ramping up production and fending off competitors. Stock indexes are moving higher today, recovering some of this week’s losses, amid lower bond yields and strength in semiconductor stocks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -5 bp to 4.62%, falling back from Tuesday’s 16-month high as inflation expectations retreat amid a decline in WTI crude oil prices of more than -3%. The weakness in crude oil today is also lifting airline stocks and cruise line operators. However, the weakness in software stocks is limiting gains in the broader market. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.78%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.75%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.24%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.70%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +1.15%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 6% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. Earnings season is winding down, and reports thus far have been supportive of stocks. As of today, 83% of the 454 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a 1.5-week high today and is up +1.60%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.18%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average fell to a 2.5-week low and closed down -1.23%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on today are up +11 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -4.3 bp to 4.623%. T-note prices are moving higher today, recovering some of this week’s sell-off, as a -3% decline in WTI crude oil prices weakens inflation expectations, a supportive factor for T-notes. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low of 2.473% today. T-notes also have some carryover support from a rally in 10-year UK gilts after UK April consumer prices rose less than expected. The strength in stocks today is limiting gains in T-notes as well as supply pressures, as the Treasury will auction $16 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today. European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German Bund yield is down -8.0 bp to 3.113%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -12.0 bp to 5.008%. UK Apr CPI eased to 2.8% y/y from 3.3% y/y in Mar, weaker than expectations of 3.0% y/y. Apr core CPI eased to 2.5% y/y from 3.1% y/y in Mar, weaker than expectations of 2.6% y/y. ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said, "If the Iran conflict isn't resolved by June, then I think the likelihood of an ECB rate hike is quite high." Swaps are discounting an 87% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are climbing today, providing support to the overall market. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +15% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up more than +7%. Also, Intel (INTC), Lam Research (LRCX), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) are up more than +5%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) is up more than +4%. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT) is up more than +3%, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +2%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators are rallying today with WTI crude oil down more than -3%, which lowers fuel costs and boosts profitability prospects. Alaska Air Group (ALK) is up more than +7%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is up more than +6%. Also, Delta Air Lines (DAL) is up more than +5%, and American Airlines Group (AAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Carnival (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are up more than +4%. Software stocks are under pressure today, limiting gains in the broader market. Intuit (INTU) is down more than -3%, and Workday (WDAY) is down more than -2%. Also, Salesforce (CRM), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Atlassian Corp (TEAM), ServiceNow (NOW), and Autodesk (ADSK) are down more than -1%. Toll Brothers (TOL) is up more than +6% after reporting Q2 revenue of $2.53 billion, above the consensus of $2.43 billion. TJX Cos (TJX) is up more than +5% after reporting Q1 net sales of $14.32 billion, better than the consensus of $14.01 billion. Cava Group (CAVA) is up more than +5% after reporting that Q1 comparable restaurant sales rose +9.70%, stronger than the consensus of +5.97%. Packaging Corp of America (PKG) is up more than +4% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $248. Etsy (ETSY) is up more than +2% after Arete upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $76. Hasbro (HAS) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting full-year adjusted Ebitda of $1.40 billion to $1.45 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $1.44 billion. Target (TGT) is down more than -5%, despite reporting better-than-expected Q1 sales after executives warned in a conference call that Q2 comparisons are the “hardest” of the year. Analog Devices (ADI) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 industrial revenue of $1.80 billion, below the consensus of $1.81 billion. Viavi Solutions (VIAV) is down more than -1% after announcing plans to offer $500 million worth of shares of its stock in an underwritten public offering. Medline (MDLN) is down more than -3% after announcing a secondary offering of 60 million shares of its class A stock. Cigna Group (CI) is down more than -1% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to hold from buy. Earnings Reports(5/20/2026) Analog Devices Inc (ADI), elf Beauty Inc (ELF), Intuit Inc (INTU), Lowe's Cos Inc (LOW), Nordson Corp (NDSN), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), Roivant Sciences Ltd (ROIV), Target Corp (TGT), TJX Cos Inc/The (TJX), VF Corp (VFC). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

Earnings season is winding down, though reports thus far have been supportive of stocks. As of today, 83% of the 454 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. The markets are discounting a 4% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) remain extremely volatile and are susceptible to headlines from the Iran war. Prices are down more than -1% today after President Trump late Monday said he called off a strike on Iran scheduled for Tuesday after Gulf allies asked for more time to give diplomacy a chance. Last Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a monthly report that global oil inventories declined at a rate of about 4 million bpd in March and April, and the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if the conflict ends next month. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June. Today’s US economic news was supportive for stocks after Apr pending home sales rose by +1.4% m/m, beating expectations of +1.0% m/m. Also, Mar pending home sales were revised upward to +1.7% m/m from the previously reported +1.5% m/m. In addition, software stocks are climbing today, lending some support to the overall market. Stock indexes are retreating today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 falling to 1.5-week lows, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a 2-week low. The recent rally in technology stocks, fueled by the buildout of artificial intelligence, is faltering after powering the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to record highs last week. Rising bond yields and elevated crude oil prices have sparked risk-off sentiment in asset markets, leading to long liquidation in stocks. The 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 16-month high of 4.69% today. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.68%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.95%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.75%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -1.02%. Story Continues Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.08%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 2.5-week low and closed up +0.92%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average fell to a 1.5-week low and closed down -0.44%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down -11 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +8.7 bp to 4.674%. Jun T-notes tumbled to a 15-month low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 16-month high of 4.685%. T-note prices are under pressure over concerns that still-elevated energy prices will boost inflation and push the Fed to pursue tighter monetary policy. T-notes added to their losses on today’s stronger-than-expected Apr pending home sales report. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German Bund yield climbed to a 15-year high of 3.201% and is up +4.6 bp to 3.194%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +3.2 bp to 5.130%. UK Apr payrolled employees fell by -100,000, a bigger decline than expectations of -10,000. The Mar ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 5.0%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 4.9%. Swaps are discounting a 91% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are moving lower today, weighing on the overall market. Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Qualcomm (QCOM), Western Digital (WDC), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are down more than -4%, and Intel (INTC) and Lam Research (LRCX) are down more than -3%. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT), Broadcom (AVGO), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are down more than -2%, and Analog Devices (ADI), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Sandisk (SNDK), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -1%. Minin stocks are slumping today, with gold, silver, and copper prices sharply lower. Anglogold Ashanti (AU) is down more than -6%, and Hecla Mining (HL) is down more than -5%. Also, Coeur Mining (CDE) and Newmont Corp (NEM) are down more than -4%, and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is down more than -3%. In addition, Southern Copper (SCCO) and Barrick Mining (B) are down more than -2%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators are retreating today on concerns over higher fuel costs. United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Carnival (CCL), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) are down more than -3%. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are down more than -2%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is down more than -1%. Housing stocks and building suppliers are falling today after the 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 16-month high, which raises mortgage rates and is negative for housing demand. Builders Firstsource (BLDR) is down more than -3%, and KB Home (KBH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are down more than -2%. Also, Lennar (LEN), Pulte Group (PHM), and DR Horton (DHI) are down more than -1%. Strength in software stocks is a supportive factor for the broader market. Workday (WDAY) is up more than +3%, and Salesforce (CRM) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, ServiceNow (NOW), Intuit (INTU), Adobe Systems (ADBE), and Autodesk (ADSK) are up more than +1%. In addition, Datadog (DDOG) is up +0.80%. CoreWeave (CRWV) is down more than -7% after Alphabet agreed to create an artificial intelligence cloud business with Blackstone, aiming to compete with CoreWeave. SiTime Corp (SITM) is down more than -6% after announcing that it intends to offer $1.1 billion aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2031 in an underwritten offering. XP Inc (XP) is down more than -4% after reporting Q1 net income of 1.31 billion reals, below expectations of 1.36 billion reals. Agilysys (AGYS) is up more than +14% after forecasting full-year revenue of $365 million to $370 million, stronger than the consensus of $363.5 million. Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) is up more than +9% after giving positive initial clinical data from a mid-stage trial of its zovegalisib to treat patients with PIK3CA-driven vascular anomalies, in which TD Cowen said was the “best case scenario.” Stubhub (STUB) is up more than +5% after Guggenheim Securities upgraded the stock to a buy from neutral with a price target of $12.50. Amer Sports (AS) is up more than +4% after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.95 billion, above the consensus of $1.84 billion. Earnings Reports(5/19/2026) Amer Sports Inc (AS), Cava Group Inc (CAVA), Eagle Materials Inc (EXP), Home Depot Inc/The (HD), Keysight Technologies Inc (KEYS), Toll Brothers Inc (TOL). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

Weaker-than-expected economic news from China is bearish for global growth prospects. China Apr industrial production rose +4.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +6.0% y/y. Also, China Apr retail sales rose +0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.0% y/y. In addition, China Apr new home prices fell -0.19% y/y, the thirty-fifth consecutive month that prices have declined. Today’s US economic news was supportive for stocks after the May NAHB housing market index rose +3 to 37, stronger than expectations of no change at 34. Comments from President Trump on Sunday weighed on stocks and boosted crude oil prices when he said the "clock is ticking" on Iran and it "better get moving FAST on a peace deal, or there won't be anything left of them." Also, ramped-up geopolitical tensions weighed on stocks after Reuters reported that Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia as part of a mutual defense pact, a deployment described as a "substantial, combat-capable force" to support Saudi Arabia if it comes under further attack. Stocks briefly moved higher today when crude oil prices temporarily fell more than -1% on hopes for a breakthrough in the standoff between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices retreated today after Tasnim, Iran's semi-official news agency, reported that the US has proposed a temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions until a final peace agreement is reached. Stock indexes gave up an early advance today and turned lower as crude oil prices whipsawed higher amid the stalemate between the US and Iran that has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed. Crude prices recovered from early losses and pushed back into positive territory today when Iran said, despite draft changes, US demands for ending the war were "excessive and unrealistic." The rebound in crude oil prices pushed bond yields higher, weighing on stocks as the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 15-month high today at 4.63%. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.57%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.28%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.57%. Story Continues WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) have been volatile today, rising to a 2-week high after Reuters reported that Pakistan has deployed troops and jets to Saudi Arabia as part of a mutual defense pact. Also, comments today from Iran that US demands for ending the war were “excessive and unrealistic” boosted crude prices. Crude prices initially fell by more than -1% today after Tasnim, Iran's semi-official news agency, reported that the US has proposed a temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions until a final peace agreement is reached. On Sunday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reported that a drone sparked a fire in a power station at the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant, and Saudi Arabia said it intercepted and destroyed three drones that entered its airspace. Last Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a monthly report that global oil inventories declined at a rate of about 4 million bpd in March and April, and the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if the conflict ends next month. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June. The markets are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. Earnings season is winding down, though reports thus far have been supportive of stocks. As of today, 83% of the 454 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rebounded from a 1.5-week low and is up +0.45%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped to a 2-week low and closed down -0.09%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average fell to a 1-week low and closed down -0.97%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -1 tick. The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.3 bp to 4.596%. Jun T-notes slid to a 15-month low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 15-month high of 4.631%. Today’s increase in WTI crude oil to a 2-week high raises inflation expectations and is bearish for T-notes. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 3-year high of 2.530% today. T-notes also came under pressure today after the May NAHB housing market index unexpectedly strengthened. Losses in T-notes are limited after crude oil prices fell from their best level, following Reuters' report that the US proposed a temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions. European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German Bund yield fell from a 15-year high of 3.195% and is down -0.5 bp to 3.162%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a nearly 18-year high of 5.189% and is down -3.0 bp to 5.142%. Swaps are discounting an 87% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks gave up an early advance today and turned lower, weighing on the overall market. Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is down more than -6%, and Sandisk (SNDK) and Western Digital (WDC) are down more than -5%. Also, Applied Materials (AMAT) is down more than -4%, and Micron Technology (MU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are down more than -2%. In addition, Lam Research (LRCX), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) are down more than -1%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are sliding today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -3% at a 2-week low. Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -8%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down more than -6%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is down more than -5%, Coinbase Global (COIN) is down more than -4%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down more than -1%. Zscaler (ZS) is up more than +6% to lead cybersecurity stocks higher after B Riley Securities upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $225. Also, Okta (OKTA) is up more than +3%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) is up more than +2%. In addition, Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cloudflare (NET), and Fortinet (FTNT) are up more than +1%. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) is down more than -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting its data from a Phase 3 trial of its fianlimab for treatment of metastatic melanoma fell short of expectations. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is down more than -8% after saying it intends to offer $300 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2032 in a private placement. Mobileye (MBLY) is down more than -7% after Jeffries initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of underperform and a price target of $8. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is down more than -2% after Berkshire Hathaway exited its stake in the company. LiveRamp Holdings (RAMP) is up more than +27% after Publicis Groupe SA agreed to buy the company for about $2.5 billion in cash, or about $38.50 per share. Dominion Energy (D) is up more than +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 on reports that NextEra Energy is discussing a stock deal for the company that would value it at about $76 a share or around $66 billion. Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO) is up more than +10% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Elliot Investment Management has built a sizable stake in the company. VF Corp (VFC) is up more than +2% after Williams Trading LLC double-upgraded the stock to buy from sell with a price target of $19. Earnings Reports(5/18/2026) Agilysys Inc (AGYS), James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX), XP Inc (XP). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) surged more than +4% on Friday to a 1.5-week high as talks to end the Iran war remain in limbo. The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a monthly report that global oil inventories declined at a rate of about 4 million bpd in March and April, and the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if the conflict ends next month. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June. Stock indexes extended their losses on Friday after bond yields climbed further on hawkish US economic news that showed the May Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions unexpectedly rose +8.6 to a 4-year high of 19.6, stronger than expectations of a decline to 7.2. Also, Apr manufacturing production rose by +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and the largest increase in 14 months. Stock indexes sold off sharply on Friday, weighed down by a broad selloff in global bond markets amid soaring crude oil prices that are fueling inflation fears. Doubts over whether oil supplies from the Middle East will normalize anytime soon pushed WTI to a 1.5-week high on Friday, as peace talks between the US and Iran remain in limbo and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The soaring crude prices sent bond yields spiking globally, with the Japanese 10-year JGB bond yield jumping to a 29-year high, the 10-year UK Gilt yield surging to an 18-year high, the 10-year German bund yield rising to a 15-year high, and the 10-year T-note yield climbing to an 11.75-month high of 4.60%. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed down -1.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -1.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.54%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) fell -1.26%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) fell -1.56%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. Earnings reports thus far in this reporting season have been supportive of stocks. As of Friday, 83% of the 454 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. Overseas stock markets settled sharply lower on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -1.81%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 2-week low and closed down -1.02%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average dropped to a 1-week low and closed down -1.99%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Friday closed down by -30 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +11.3 bp to 4.595%. Jun T-notes slumped to a 15-month low on Friday, and the 10-year T-note yield jumped to an 11.75-month high of 4.598%. Soaring crude oil prices on Friday raised inflation expectations and weighed on T-note prices, as WTI crude oil surged more than +4% to a 1.5-week high. Bond markets are under pressure globally amid intensifying fears that surging energy prices from the war in the Middle East will force central banks to tighten monetary policy. T-notes added to their losses on Friday after US economic news showed that the May Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions unexpectedly rose to a 4-year high, and that Apr manufacturing production posted its largest increase in 14 months. European government bond yields moved sharply higher on Friday. The 10-year German Bund yield rose to a 15-year high of 3.172% and finished up +12.4 bp to 3.167%. The 10-year UK gilt yield jumped to a nearly 18-year high of 5.180% and finished up +17.8 bp to 5.172%. Swaps are discounting an 88% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Chipmakers sold off on Friday, giving back some of this week’s rally that pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to new record highs. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed down by more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Intel (INTC) closed down more than -6%. Also, Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -5%, and Lam Research (LRCX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Nvidia (NVDA), and KLA Corp (KLAC) closed down more than -4%. In addition, Broadcom (AVGO) closed down more than -3%, and Analog Devices (ADI) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) closed down more than -2%. Mining stocks retreated on Friday amid plunging gold, silver, and copper prices. Hecla Mining (HL) and Anglogold Ashanti Ltd (AU) closed down more than -9%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) closed down more than -8%. Also, Newmont Corp (NEM) closed down more than -6%, and Southern Copper (SCCO) and Barrick Mining (B) closed down more than -5%. In addition, Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed down more than -4%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fell on Friday as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) dropped more than -2% to a 1.5-week low. Coinbase Global (COIN) closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed down more than -7%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) closed down more than -6%, and Strategy (MSTR) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed down more than -4%. Airlines and cruise line operators were under pressure on Friday, as the +4% jump in WTI crude oil to a 1.5-week high raises fuel costs and dampens the companies’ earnings prospects. United Airlines Holdings (UAL), American Airlines Group (AAL), and Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed down more than -3%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV), Carnival (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) closed down more than -2%. Also, Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) closed down more than -1%. Energy producers and service providers moved higher on Friday amid the +4% jump in WTI crude oil. APA Corp (APA) closed up more than +5%, and Devon Energy (DVN) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) closed up more than +4%. Also, Exxon Mobil (XOM) closed up more than +3%, and ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), Chevron (CVX), and Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +2%. Dlocal Ltd (DLO) closed down more than -12% after reporting Q1 EPS of 14 cents, below the consensus of 17 cents. NU Holdings Ltd (NU) closed down more than -5% after reporting Q1 revenue of $4.97 billion, weaker than the consensus of $5.04 billion. Figma Inc. (FIG) closed up more than +13% after raising its full-year revenue forecast to $1.42 billion to $1.43 billion from a previous estimate of $1.37 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.37 billion. Dexcom (DXCM) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Elliott Investment Management took a stake in the company and struck a settlement that will put two independent directors on the board. Papa John’s International (PZZA) closed up more than +6% after Reuters reported that Irth Capital is working to take the company private. Microsoft (MSFT) closed up more than +3% after Pershing Square said it has built a new stake in the company. C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) closed up more than +2% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $199. Earnings Reports(5/18/2026) Agilysys Inc (AGYS), James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX), XP Inc (XP). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

The markets are discounting a 4% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) are up more than 3% today, as President Trump cast doubt over the ceasefire with Iran, saying the truce was on “massive life support,” prolonging the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The strait remains essentially closed, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June. In the latest developments in the Middle East, President Trump called Iran's response to his peace proposal a "piece of garbage" and said that the current ceasefire was on "life support." Hawkish comments today from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee were bearish for stocks and bonds, as he said the worst part of today's April CPI report is services inflation and that "the Fed has got to be thinking about how do we break the chain of escalating inflation." Stock indexes added to their losses today on signs of accelerating inflation after the US Apr CPI rose 3.8% y/y, stronger than the 3.7% y/y expected and the largest increase in almost 3 years. Also, Apr core CPI rose +2.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.7% y/y and the largest increase in six months. Stock indexes are under pressure today as weakness in technology stocks weighs on the overall market, following Monday’s rally that pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to new record highs. The ongoing stalemate in the Middle East between the US and Iran is keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, weighing on market sentiment, and pushing crude oil prices and bond yields higher. The 10-year T-note yield is up +4 bp to 4.45%. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.74%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.55%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.45%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.74%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -1.43%. Story Continues Earnings reports thus far in this reporting season have been supportive of stocks. As of today, 83% of the 450 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -1.19%. China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 10-year high and closed down -0.25%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closed up +0.52%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down -10 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.9 bp to 4.453%. Jun T-notes fell to a 1-week low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1-week high of 4.456%. T-notes are under pressure today amid a +3% surge in WTI crude oil prices, which is boosting inflation expectations. Also, today’s stronger-than-expected US April CPI reports signal accelerating inflation, a bearish factor for T-notes. In addition, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $42 billion of 10-year T-notes later today as part of this week’s $125 billion quarterly refunding. T-notes added to their losses today when Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the US has an inflation problem. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German Bund yield rose to a 1.5-week high of 3.105% and is up +5.7 bp to 3.097%. The 10-year UK gilt yield surged to a 17-year high of 5.135% and is up +10.0 bp to 5.098%. The German May ZEW survey expectation of economic growth unexpectedly rose +7.0 to -10.2, stronger than expectations of a decline to -19.5. ECB Governing Council member Christodoulos Patsalides said, "As things stand, inflation risks are worsening," which points to an ECB interest rate hike in June. Swaps are discounting an 85% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Chipmakers are on the defensive today, giving back some of Monday’s sharp gains as the AI infrastructure rally cools. Qualcomm (QCOM) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Sandisk (SNDK) and Intel (INTC) are down more than -7%. Also, Micron Technology (MU) is down more than -5%, and Western Digital (WDC), Applied Materials (AMAT), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Lam Research (LRCX) are down more than -4%. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ASML Holding NV (ASML), KLA Corp (KLAC), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are down more than -3%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators are sliding today amid a +3% increase in WTI crude oil prices, which are boosting fuel costs and undermining the companies' profitability prospects. American Airlines Group (AAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Carnival (CCL) are down more than -2%. Also, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are down more than -1%. Power Solutions International (PSIX) is down more than -34% after reporting Q1 revenue of $128.6 million, well below the consensus of $161 million. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is down more than -12% after reporting a Q1 net loss of -$191.0 million, a wider loss than expectations of -$76.3 million. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is down more than -11% after reporting Q1 revenue of $608.1 million, weaker than the consensus of $617.5 million, and forecasting full-year adjusted Ebitda of $275 million to $350 million, the midpoint below the consensus of $319.3 million. Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN) is down more than -8% after forecasting Q2 revenue of $332 million to $342 million, well below the consensus of $359.9 million. ON Holding (ONON) is down more than -6% after forecasting full-year net sales at constant currencies of at least +23%, weaker than the consensus of +24.6%. Gitlab (GTLB) is down by more than -5% after announcing plans to cut jobs and make operational changes, moves Raymond James said will be challenging. West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) is down more than -3% after saying it has experienced a material cybersecurity attack that has disrupted operations globally. PACS Group (PACS) is up more than +20% after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.42 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.36 billion, and raising its full-year Ebitda forecast to $605 million-$625 million from a previous forecast of $555 million-$575 million, well above the consensus of $567 million. Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) is up more than +17% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $4.75, stronger than the consensus of $4.25, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $18.30 to $18.70 from a previous forecast of $17.70 to $18.30. Wendy’s (WEN) is up more than +14% after the Financial Times reported that Trian Fund Management is seeking investor backing for a bid to take the company private. Venture Global (VG) is up more than +11% after reporting Q1 adjusted net income of $488.0 million, well above the consensus of $337.2 million. Qnity Electronics (Q) is up more than +4% after reporting Q1 net sales of $1.42 billion, above the consensus of $1.27 billion. Steris Plc (STE) is up more than +2% after forecasting 202y adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $11.10 to $11.30, above the consensus of $11.08. Earnings Reports(5/12/2026) Aramark (ARMK), Karman Holdings Inc (KRMN), Millicom International Cellular SA (TIGO), On Holding AG (ONON), Qnity Electronics Inc (Q), Ralliant Corp (RAL), Under Armour Inc (UAA), Zebra Technologies Corp (ZBRA). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) are up by more than 2% today, as optimism that the US and Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz was dashed after President Trump on Sunday said that Iran's latest peace proposals were "totally unacceptable." The strait remains essentially closed, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June. Chinese trade news was better than expected, a positive factor for global growth. China Apr exports rose +14.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +8.4% y/y. Apr imports rose +25.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of 20.0% y/y. Today’s US economic news was slightly weaker than expected after Apr existing home sales rose +0.2% m/m to 4.02 million, below expectations of 4.05 million. In the latest developments in the Middle East, President Trump and Iran rejected each other's latest peace proposals to end the 10-week conflict. Iran offered to transfer some of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country, but rejected the idea of dismantling its nuclear facilities. Iran also demanded a lifting of the US naval blockade and sanctions relief, while maintaining a degree of control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the ceasefire in place since last month, a drone strike over the weekend set a cargo vessel ablaze off Qatar in the Persian Gulf. Also, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait both said they intercepted hostile drones. Stock indexes are moving higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs amid strong corporate earnings results and resurgent optimism around artificial intelligence. Gains in stocks are limited today amid rising oil prices and bond yields after the US and Iran failed to reach terms to end the war in the Middle East. Global bond yields rose on concern that the continued standoff will keep energy prices elevated and could force the world’s central banks to tighten monetary policy. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3 bp to 4.39%. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.25%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.05%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.17%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.29%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.19%. Story Continues The markets are discounting a 5% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. Earnings reports thus far in this reporting season have been supportive of stocks. As of today, 83% of the 446 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates. Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.55%. China's Shanghai Composite rallied to a 10-year high and closed up +1.08%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average fell from a record high and closed down -0.47%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down -7 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.8 bp to 4.392%. T-notes are under pressure today from a +2% jump in WTI crude oil prices, which is boosting inflation expectations. Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $125 billion of T-notes and T-bonds in this week’s quarterly refunding, beginning with today’s $58 billion auction of 3-year T-notes. European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German Bund yield is up +3.7 bp to 3.042%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +9.1 bp to 5.003%. ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said, "If the situation around energy prices does not improve significantly, an interest rate hike will be unavoidable in the near future." Swaps are discounting an 85% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11. US Stock Movers Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing today amid continued optimism over AI infrastructure build-outs. Qualcomm (QCOM) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Western Digital (WDC) is up by more than +6%. Also, Micron Technology (MU) and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) are up more than +5%, and Nvidia (NVDA) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT) is up more than +2%, and Intel (INTC), KLA Corp (KLAC), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +1%. Mining stocks are moving higher today with rallies in gold, silver, and copper prices. Barrick Mining (B) and Hecla Mining (HL) are up more than +7%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) is up more than +4%. Also, Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and Newmont Corp (NEM) are up more than +3%, and Anglogold Ashanti (AU) is up more than +2%. Airline stocks and cruise line operators are under pressure today amid a +2% increase in WTI crude oil prices, which boost fuel costs and undermine the companies' profitability prospects. Alaska Air Group (ALK), Carnival (CCL), and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) are down more than -4%, and American Airlines Group (AAL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are down more than -3%. Also, United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are down more than -2%. Beazer Homes USA Inc (BZH) is up more than +30% on a report that said Dream Finders Homes is close to announcing a $704 million offer to acquire the company. Babcock & Wilcox (BW) is up more than +22% after reporting Q1 revenue grew 44% year-over-year, and that Q1 Ebitda nearly quadrupled. Lumentum Holdings (LITE) is up more than +17% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Nasdaq announced that the stock will replace CoStar Group in the Nasdaq 100 before the market opens on Monday, May 18. Coherent Corp (COHR) is up more than +13% on news that CEO Anderson will travel with President Trump to China this week. Monday.com (MNDY) is up more than +6% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.15, better than the consensus of 93 cents, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $1.466 billion to $1.474 billion from a previous forecast of $1.45 billion to $1.46 billion, better than the consensus of $1.46 billion. Moderna (MRNA) is up more than +5% after announcing it’s researching vaccines to protect against hantaviruses. Trade Desk (TTD) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after HSBC downgraded the stock to reduce from hold with a price target of $20. Iren Ltd (IREN) is down more than -6% after announcing that it intends to offer $2 billion of convertible senior notes due 2033 in a private offering. Wendy’s (WEN) is down more than -6% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $6. Dell Technologies (DELL) is down more than -5% after UBS downgraded the stock to neutral from buy. Tyler Technologies (TYL) is down more than -4% after announcing that it intends to offer $1 billion of convertible senior notes due 2031 in a private offering. Mosaic (MOS) is down more than -3% after forecasting Q2 phosphate sales of 1.4 million to 1.7 million tons, weaker than the consensus of 1.78 million tons. Earnings Reports(5/11/2026) AECOM (ACM), Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM), AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS), Certara Inc (CERT), Circle Internet Group Inc (CRCL), Constellation Energy Corp (CEG), Figure Technology Solutions Inc (FIGR), Fox Corp (FOXA), Halozyme Therapeutics Inc (HALO), Mosaic Co/The (MOS), Ovintiv Inc (OVV), Simon Property Group Inc (SPG), STERIS PLC (STE), ZoomInfo Technologies Inc (GTM). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com