تحولات خريطة الطاقة العالمية: سياسات الخليج وذروة النفط والتحولات الجيوسياسية

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxOQjZ4V3ItbnhLTFo0MWs5ZWJyV1JGelJDbTl1eUpfdTBLVGhXSUdIVTNtTDJUdjJucnpLZlV0Z0hXXzNveDFKX01iUmFTUlNsaVUtME40RXNwdlJGRjNqQ3YyVF9GcDJ6YjBkSjdkNzVFSGlpNDRPajVJZmszMjZfUjh0X0Rsa2NBcnpyRmhuSUdLVHAwMmVqcTB1aEFvcHNqb2c?oc=5" target="_blank">Bridging the Gulf: Energy Policy and Climate Governance in the GCC</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<font color="#6f6f6f">Middle East Council on Global Affairs</font>

Vitol expects global oil demand to peak around the middle of the 2030s, due to forecasts of slower uptake of electric vehicles, the world’s biggest independent oil trader said in an updated oil outlook on Monday. Peak oil demand is pushed back to the mid-2030s, mostly due to demand from the road transport sector, other sectors remain broadly unchanged, Vitol said, noting a marked contrast with its report from a year ago, in which the trading giant had expected demand to peak in the early 2030s and then decline. Significant shifts in policy and some economic fundamentals over the past 12 months have prompted Vitol to update its outlook. Demand in 2040 is expected to be 5 million barrel per day (bpd) higher than today, Vitol said. “Minimal decline during the latter part of the next decade does not reverse the continued year-on-year increase in oil use over the next few years,” the trading house said. Decarbonization policies have taken a backseat over the past year and “Policy priorities have increasingly been reframed around economic competitiveness and geopolitical strategy,” Vitol said. The pace of decarbonization through 2040 will depend more on availability, scalability, and affordability of practical alternatives, instead of stated targets, according to Vitol. “This is alongside the cost and feasibility of adoption,” the oil trader said. Over the past year, many forecasters cited changed policies and energy security as reasons for amended peak oil demand expectations. Even the International Energy Agency dropped its predictions that oil demand growth will peak in a matter of a few years. In the latest edition of its World Energy Outlook, the IEA said oil and gas demand could continue growing until 2050. As demand for energy grows, so will demand for the traditional sources of that energy. In a departure from its predictions of peak oil demand and peak natural gas demand before 2030, the IEA now expects oil demand to reach 113 million barrels by 2050, under the stated policies scenario that the outlet reintroduced this year after dropping it for five years to focus on aspirational scenarios focused on net zero. By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

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Indian refiners are poised to halve imports of Russian crude oil following the U.S.-India trade deal, sources with direct knowledge of the oil procurement deals told Bloomberg on Monday. All state-controlled refiners in India have suspended purchases of Russian crude on the spot market since the announcement of the deal, according to Bloomberg’s sources. State-held Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), as well as the top private refiner Reliance Industries, have not made any fresh spot orders for Russian crude in the past week, the sources added. These refiners will take delivery of the cargoes they have already purchased but the future purchases are highly uncertain, analysts say. “India has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil, has represented that it will purchase United States energy products from the United States, and has recently committed to a framework with the United States to expand defense cooperation over the next 10 years,” the White House said on Friday. The 25% tariff on India that President Donald Trump placed in August 2025, due to India’s purchases of Russian crude, is now removed. India, however, has not confirmed it would halt all purchases of Russian crude oil. Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said last week that “ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion Indians is the supreme priority of the government. Diversifying our energy sourcing in keeping with objective market conditions and evolving international dynamics is at the core of our strategy to ensure this. All of India's decisions are taken and will be taken with this in mind.” Despite India’s vague response to the U.S. claim that New Delhi has committed to stop purchases of Russian oil, the trade deal could be incentive enough for Indian buyers to slash imports from Russia, analysts say. “The overall economic benefit of a trade deal with the US will outweigh the advantage of discounted crude imports,” Vandana Hari, founder consultancy Vanda Insights, told Bloomberg. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com