تحولات الطاقة العالمية: شراكة إماراتية ألمانية وضغوط على عوائد النفط

شهدت الزيارة جولة للمستشار الألماني في مقر "أدنوك" بمشاركة الوفد المرافق له، وعدد من مسؤولي الإدارة التنفيذية من "أدنوك" و"XRG" و"مصدر"، وأكدت الزيارة على أهمية الدور المحوري لأدنوك في تعزيز الشراكة الاستراتيجية بين الإمارات وألمانيا في قطاع الطاقة، حيث تأتي بعد استثمار "XRG"، ذراع الاستثمارات الدولية في قطاع الطاقة التابعة لأدنوك، 14.7 مليار يورو للاستحواذ على شركة "كوفيسترو" ودعم نموها على المدى البعيد وترسيخ مكانتها الرائدة في قطاع الصناعة العالمي. وخلال الزيارة، اطلع المستشار ميرتس على مستجدات جهود "أدنوك" التي تساهم بشكل فعال في تلبية الاحتياجات المتزايدة لألمانيا من موارد الطاقة عبر زيادة إمدادات الغاز الطبيعي المسال، استنادا إلى الاتفاقيات التي أبرمتها مؤخراً مع شركات ألمانية لتوريد 1.6 مليون طن سنويا من الغاز الطبيعي المسال من مشروع الرويس للغاز الطبيعي المسال، وتزود "أدنوك" حاليا السوق الألمانية بنحو 0.7 مليون طن سنويا من الغاز الطبيعي. كما قام المستشار الألماني بجولة في مركز التحكم الرقمي "بانوراما" التابع لـ"أدنوك"، و"مختبر أدنوك للذكاء الاصطناعي"، حيث اطلع على كيفية استفادة الشركة من أدوات الذكاء الاصطناعي عبر مختلف مراحل ومجالات أعمالها، بداية من غرف التحكم وصولا إلى غرف اجتماعات الإدارة التنفيذية، وتطبيقها حلول للتكنولوجيا المتقدمة لتعزيز القيمة ورفع كفاءة عملياتها. وبهذه المناسبة، قال الدكتور سلطان أحمد الجابر: "تماشيا مع رؤية القيادة الرشيدة بمد جسور الشراكة والتعاون لضمان أمن الطاقة وتحقيق النمو والتقدم، يسرنا أن نرحب بمعالي المستشار فريدريش ميرتس في مقر ’أدنوك‘، حيث جددنا التأكيد على قوة الشراكة الاستراتيجية طويلة الأمد بين دولة الإمارات وألمانيا، وعلاقاتهما الوثيقة المبنية على الثقة والاحترام المتبادلَين. وأتاحَت زيارة معاليه إلى دولة الإمارات فرصة مهمة لاستكشاف آفاق جديدة للتعاون في قطاعات محورية تشمل الطاقة والصناعة والذكاء الاصطناعي والتكنولوجيا المتقدمة، ونتطلع إلى ترسيخ علاقات التعاون مع شركائنا في جمهورية ألمانيا الاتحادية، والمساهمة في خلق قيمة طويلة الأمد ودعم النمو التقدم الاقتصادي والاجتماعي". وخلال الزيارة، أعلنت "أدنوك" وشركة "آر دبليو إي للإمداد والتجارة" ("آر دبليو إي") عن اتفاقية تعاون استراتيجي لاستكشاف فرص توريد الغاز الطبيعي المسال إلى ألمانيا والأسواق الأوروبية بكميات تصل إلى مليون طن متري سنويا لمدة تصل إلى 10 سنوات. وكجزء من الاتفاقية، سيعمل الطرفان أيضا على استكشاف فرص التعاون في تجارة الغاز الطبيعي المسال، وقدرات إعادة تحويله إلى الحالة الغازية في ألمانيا وأوروبا، إضافة إلى فرص أوسع ضمن منظومة أعمال الغاز والغاز الطبيعي المسال. كما اتفقت شركة "مصدر"، وشركة "آر دبليو إي" من خلال مذكرة تفاهم على تحديد واستكشاف فرص الاستثمار في مشروعات أنظمة تخزين الطاقة بالبطاريات في ألمانيا. وشهدت الزيارة كذلك توقيع مذكرة تفاهم بين شركات "كوفيسترو"، و"فيرتيغلوب"، و"تعزيز" لاستكشاف فرص التعاون في مجالات الأمونيا والمواد المستدامة. جدير بالذكر، أن دولة الإمارات وألمانيا تستمران في توثيق شراكتهما في قطاع الطاقة، التي تعد "أدنوك" ركيزة أساسية فيها. وفي ديسمبر 2025، استكملت "XRG" عرض الاستحواذ الطوعي على شركة "كوفيسترو إيه جي"، إحدى الشركات الرائدة عالميا في تصنيع الكيماويات والبوليمرات عالية الأداء. كما سلّمت "أدنوك" أول شحنة من الغاز الطبيعي المسال من الشرق الأوسط إلى ألمانيا في عام 2023، وأبرمت لاحقاً عدة اتفاقيات لتوريد الغاز الطبيعي المسال مع شركات ألمانية.

Oil Majors' Shareholder Payouts Under Pressure Oil majors continue to publish their Q4 2025 results, with UK-based energy giant Shell joining the ranks of those that missed fourth-quarter expectations by reporting an 11% decline in profits (at $3.3 billion). Whilst Norway’s state oil firm Equinor cut its buyback programme by 70% and cut 2026 capital expenditures, more investor-exposed majors prefer to keep their shareholder payouts unchanged. Shell has bought back a quarter of its stock over the past four years, totalling some $60 billion, with $14 billion purchased last year.Worryingly for Shell, its reserve life fell to 7.8 years as of end-2025, from 8.9 years in 2024, getting dangerously close to BP’s low of 7 years. The resource strain might be one of the main drivers behind Shell’s stated interest in Venezuelan hydrocarbons, particularly multi-billion-dollar offshore gas projects. Cold Snap, Hot Demand: U.S. Gas Inventories Drop a Record 360 bcf The Arctic blast that swept through most of the United States’ eastern and southern states prompted the highest ever weekly natural gas inventory draw, with the EIA reporting a whopping 360 bcf drop in the week ending January 30. Following the massive stock draw, US gas stockpiles are now 1% below the 5-year average at 2.46 Tcf, even though they were 5% higher than the same 5-year average the week before. The severe weather choked off 18% of US natural gas production as water froze in wellheads, all the while power generation…

That incident reminded the market why the risk premium existed in the first place. About… Just when traders thought the diplomatic path was clearing, Wednesday brought a complete reversal. A media report suggested that talks between the U.S. and Iran could collapse, reigniting fears of a wider confrontation in the region. The news came on the heels of rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where the U.S. Navy shot down an Iranian drone earlier in the week. The selloff was aggressive enough to push prices to their lowest level since January 20, forcing weak longs out of the market and resetting expectations about where oil should trade in a less hostile environment. The week started with a sharp selloff on Monday after President Trump said over the weekend that Washington and Tehran were in discussions. The news caught the market off guard and triggered immediate profit-taking from traders who had been positioning for a potential supply disruption in the Middle East. Oil prices dropped more than 4% in the session as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated almost overnight. WTI crude oil futures are wrapping up a volatile week with the market trading at $62.99, down $2.22 or -3.40%. With one day left before the week ends, the primary driver of the choppy trade has been the reduction of the risk premium after reports on Thursday said the United States and Iran were talking. WTI crude oil futures are wrapping up a volatile week with the market trading at $62.99, down $2.22 or -3.40%. With one day left before the week ends, the primary driver of the choppy trade has been the reduction of the risk premium after reports on Thursday said the United States and Iran were talking. Monday's Plunge Sets the Tone The week started with a sharp selloff on Monday after President Trump said over the weekend that Washington and Tehran were in discussions. The news caught the market off guard and triggered immediate profit-taking from traders who had been positioning for a potential supply disruption in the Middle East. Oil prices dropped more than 4% in the session as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated almost overnight. The selloff was aggressive enough to push prices to their lowest level since January 20, forcing weak longs out of the market and resetting expectations about where oil should trade in a less hostile environment. Wednesday's Rally on Collapsing Talks Just when traders thought the diplomatic path was clearing, Wednesday brought a complete reversal. A media report suggested that talks between the U.S. and Iran could collapse, reigniting fears of a wider confrontation in the region. The news came on the heels of rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where the U.S. Navy shot down an Iranian drone earlier in the week. That incident reminded the market why the risk premium existed in the first place. About 20% of the world's total oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any escalation that leads to a closure of that waterway would immediately impact shipments from OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq. Analysts quickly started throwing out numbers, with some suggesting oil prices could jump $10 to $20 higher if Iran shuts down the strait in retaliation for a U.S. strike. Wednesday's rally was sharp and swift, with buyers rushing back in to hedge against the possibility of a supply shock. Thursday's Pullback on Fresh Diplomatic News Thursday brought the market full circle. Reuters reported that the United States and Iran had agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday. The on-again, off-again nature of the diplomatic efforts triggered light profit-taking, but not enough to completely drive out buyers who are still hedging against a worst-case scenario. Despite the pullback, some traders remain cautious. Reports continue to suggest that President Trump could still follow through on threats to strike Iran, which would likely trigger a much larger regional confrontation. That uncertainty is keeping a floor under prices even as the immediate risk premium fades. EIA and API Reports Add to the Volatility Beyond geopolitics, the market also had to digest inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA report showed a bigger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories for the week, which provided support for prices mid-week. The report also showed a drop in distillates, while gasoline inventories rose. The inventory draw was significant enough to remind traders that domestic fundamentals still matter, even when geopolitical headlines dominate the narrative. Tighter inventories helped limit the downside during Thursday's selloff and kept the market from collapsing back to the lows seen on Monday. U.S. Dollar Adds Pressure The U.S. Dollar also played a role in the week's price action. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for foreign buyers, which can dampen demand and weigh on prices. The dollar's rise to a two-week high added another layer of pressure on crude oil, particularly during sessions when geopolitical concerns were fading. Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures Trend Indicator Analysis The main trend is up, according to the weekly swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed the previous week when light crude oil futures crossed to the strong side of the 52-week moving average at $60.64 and took out the swing top at $65.62. However, this week saw an inside move, which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. The market is also straddling a long-term 50% level at $63.62, which indicates a balanced or neutral market. The main range is $75.12 to $54.70. Its retracement zone at $64.91 to $67.32 is resistance. It stopped the rally at $66.48 the week-ending January 30. The new short-term range is $54.70 to $66.48. First support is its 50% level at $60.59. This forms a support cluster with the 52-week moving average at $60.64 to $60.59. Buyers could show up on the initial test of $60.64 to $60.59. On the upside, a clean breakout over $67.32 will put $75.12 on the radar. Weekly Technical Forecast The direction of the weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market for the week-ending February 13 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $63.62. Bullish Scenario A sustained move above $63.62 will signal the presence of buyers. This move will put the market in a position to challenge the retracement zone at $64.91 to $67.32. A breakout over $67.32 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with $75.12 a potential near-term target. Bearish Scenario A sustained move below $63.62 will indicate active selling pressure. This could trigger a quick break into the support cluster at $60.64 to $60.59. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this area, but be prepared for the start of a breakdown under $60.29 with $54.70 a potential target. What's Next? Looking ahead, the market is likely to remain choppy as long as U.S.-Iran talks continue. If negotiations extend beyond Friday, prices could weaken further. Traders will be watching closely to see if the talks produce any concrete agreement or if they collapse again, reigniting the risk premium. Technically, the market is showing signs of fatigue after the volatile swings. The back-and-forth price action suggests traders are unsure whether to price in diplomacy or disruption. Until there's clarity on the geopolitical front, expect two-way trade to continue. The bullish bias will continue as long as the market remains above the 52-week moving average at $60.64. The bottom line is that oil is stuck between two narratives right now. On the one hand, diplomatic progress should reduce the risk premium and send prices lower. On the other hand, the threat of a strike on Iran and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeps a floor under the market. In my opinion, gains are likely to remain capped as long as talks continue, but any signs of a breakdown could quickly send prices back toward the highs. The key is to watch the headlines closely and be ready for another week of volatility.