حرب النفط في الخليج: تهديدات إيران وردود فعل دول التعاون

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxNUXM1cUdERVB5cWROQlIzOXgzbjdFejNxeER6R0M4YXNWTlBudEFQd3JsV05renN4cFJGWVFwYjNuOVlzWGZKV2FUNzZkVWJXU2pfVXp6UEdfbW8zbm44bkE4YUxQcWFVMTZpMmd4WkJLcVNlajNtVFN2RW9pZzBJOGd6bGdqZw?oc=5" target="_blank">Saudi Red Sea Oil Exports Surge Amid Hormuz Crisis</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<font color="#6f6f6f">Discovery Alert</font>

Global oil markets have recorded some of the biggest price swings in history this week after the US-Israeli war with Iran throttled the flow of Middle Eastern crude through the strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway south of Iran is one of the world’s most important trade arteries, through which a fifth of global oil and seaborne gas is shipped from production facilities and refineries in the Gulf to buyers around the world. The strait carries just over 20m barrels of oil a day, making it the busiest oil route after the strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia. It is also the most important trade route for cargoes of liquified natural gas (LNG), shipped on super-chilled tankers. But unlike the Malacca corridor – which carries roughly 23.2m barrels a day to buyers in China, Japan and South Korea – the Hormuz strait is far more difficult to circumvent, making it the biggest chokepoint in the global energy system. The waterway lies below Iran and above Oman to the south, tapering to just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. It is through this passage that crude and petroleum products from the refineries and production facilities of the world’s biggest petrostates need to pass to reach their global market. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf producers have built pipelines that are able to bypass the strait, but these routes can carry only a fraction of the region’s export capacity. Iran has weaponised its geography in retaliation to US-Israeli strikes. Hundreds of tankers hoping to cross the strait have come to a halt after the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps threatened to “set ablaze” any vessel using the trade route, effectively deterring all but the most reckless. Oil tanker Skylight hit off Oman's Musandam peninsula The stoppage has sent fossil fuel prices soaring, and fears over supplies have been compounded by strikes against key oil and gas infrastructure in the region that threaten to further disrupt supply even if tankers are able to resume their routes through the strait. At least five energy sites in and around Tehran were hit by airstrikes, prompting accounts of “apocalyptic” scenes in the Iranian capital. Major oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Qatar have also been affected. Smoke rises from the Shahran oil depot in Tehran Meanwhile, oil storage facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are reaching their limits, meaning large oilfields may need to be shut down if crude cannot be exported via the strait of Hormuz to the global market. Qatar’s energy minister has predicted that if the disruption to Hormuz continues all Gulf energy exporters will have to shut down production within weeks – delaying any restart if the strait reopens – and oil could rise to $150 a barrel. The single largest buyer of crude flowing through the strait is China, which imported at least 5.4m barrels of crude a day on tankers traversing the channel last year, according to Vortexa. These included record volumes of sanctioned Iranian crude, which averaged 1.38m barrels a day last year. Although China is the most exposed to the Gulf energy crisis, it is also the most prepared. In addition to record Iranian imports, market observers believe it imported record volumes of Venezuelan crude before the US swoop on the South American country in January. Overall, China has taken advantage of weak oil prices over recent years to quietly amass record high levels of crude stocks, which are estimated to exceed 1.2bn barrels in its onshore crude stockpiles. This is the equivalent of about three to four months of reserves. While China is also the biggest importer of Gulf gas cargoes, it relies on the region for less than a third of its total gas demand. Its other gas sources include Russia and Australia. Bahrain oil refinery on fire after Iranian attacks The countries most reliant on the Middle East for gas imports include Pakistan, Bangladesh and India, the world’s fastest growing major economy. The White House agreed last week to temporarily waive its sanctions to allow India to buy Russian oil stranded at sea. In Bangladesh and Pakistan ministers have clamped down on the countries’ electricity and fuel use by shutting universities and preparing remote-work policies. Leaders of G7 nations met on Monday to discuss plans to reverse the sharp rise in global energy prices after the international benchmark Brent crude, climbed by almost a third to highs of $119.50 a barrel. It was the first time market prices have soared above the key psychological $100 threshold since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, by the evening prices were tumbling again after Donald Trump suggested the US-Israel war on Iran could end “very soon”, and by Wednesday they had fallen to about $90 a barrel.

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxNdzNFWTVyQTMzUUQybW5DVUh5a2ozTWNJb2syaHJzeVp0MUJueDhaTWlOTmYtUnhTUU5RLWpRak1aT192MWswb1hVMV8zZjNTSEt5UDhFa29XQmlxYk1JUDFJNzBHQmtfWWVCRFozNjNvZWVvQ1pTUkNDREVGOUtDclBTOUctU0hDS0xHSm8zZUFOeFVS?oc=5" target="_blank">Could a GCC energy embargo halt the US-Israel war on Iran?</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<font color="#6f6f6f">Middle East Eye</font>

Kharg Island – through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow – is arguably the country’s most sensitive economic target but the export terminal has so far remained untouched throughout the US-Israel bombing campaign. Experts say bombing or capturing the site with US forces would be likely to cause a sustained increase to already surging oil prices, as it would amount to taking the entirety of Iran’s daily crude exports offline. “We may see the $120 a barrel price we saw on Monday heading to the $150 if Kharg were attacked,” said Neil Quilliam, with the Chatham House thinktank. “It’s too vital for global energy markets”. Although the US has struck 5,000 targets in and around Iran, it has so far refrained from bombing the country’s oil infrastructure – though oil prices remain nearly $20 per barrel higher because the fear of Iranian retaliation has in effect closed the strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic. Israel’s air force did strike two oil refineries and two depots on Saturday, plunging Tehran into what some residents described as an “apocalyptic” darkness as thick black smoke descended over the capital. But there have been no attacks since. Kharg, a five-mile-long coral island in the Persian Gulf 27 miles from the mainland, is where pipelines from Iran’s oilfields in the centre and the west of the country terminate. Established by a US oil conglomerate, Amoco, it was seized by Iran during the 1979 revolution. While most of Iran’s coastline is silty and too shallow for very large crude tankers used by the oil industry, Kharg is sufficiently close to deep waters. Satellite imagery reveals vast loading jetties emerging from its eastern shore. Typically, between 1.3m and 1.6m barrels of oil a day pass through Kharg, though Iran increased volumes to 3m a day in mid-February, according to the investment bank JP Morgan, in anticipation of a US-led attack. A further 18m barrels are stored on Kharg as a backup, the bank added. Media reports have hinted at White House interest, including a brief reference in an Axios report on Saturday that officials had considered “seizing Kharg”. The US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, has not ruled out attacking Iran with ground forces, although there are not large numbers of US troops in the region. View image in fullscreen A file photograph of Iranian technicians working at the Kharg oil terminal on Kharg. Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA Michael Rubin, a senior Pentagon adviser on Iran and Iraq in the George W Bush administration, said last week he had discussed the idea with White House officials, arguing it could be a way to cripple the Iranian regime economically. “If they can’t sell their own oil, they can’t make payroll,” he said. Before the latest US-Israel offensive, most of Iran’s crude oil from Kharg was exported to China. But the interconnected nature of the market means a permanent loss in export supply would affect prices globally, at a time when a further 3.5m barrels a day, mostly from Iraq, are also offline because of the closure of Hormuz. Destroying Kharg or damaging the export site “runs the risk of causing an economy-shaping increase in oil price that would not drop rapidly”, argues Lynette Nusbacher, a former British army intelligence officer. Israel did not attack it in last summer’s 12-day war, and its complex infrastructure could take years to repair. There is also a longer-term political argument. “Kharg Island is sufficiently important to the Iranian economy that destroying its facilities would abandon any pretence of fighting a war to create a brighter future for Iran,” Nusbacher argues, because it would deny a successor regime vital oil income. An effort to seize the island, given its size, would be likely to require a sizeable and sustained operation, greater than a typical special forces incursion. Though a US seizure would in theory give the White House leverage over Tehran, Quilliam argued it was very likely that such an effort would be self-defeating. “If the US were to seize it, then you are separating the Iranian oil industry. Iran would have production but couldn’t export, while the US wouldn’t be able to produce. That would set markets in a tailspin; that’s a real standoff,” the analyst said.

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOemwxVjdIUW9kR3Q1c3p3SlhVT3J0X1pMSUdBYnJSNW1oM0dSUy1fVFVIVkc3QUJ4U0w1LU1vbjlwaTM1TEtBNFJsWkU1YmQwWk5SUVZDZ0szZjF2VVN6VzFlMUYyam9BWVViZ0tFbXgxMWs0SXRnUGFFb1dLSC1GcXBwZ1UwMTdIelp0cllUeUVqc1hDWkU0YUNrVVlPRjYyVnNLOTFQdkR5aGpQSlZKdVp1enNPTFUzYVZ6TFBtYTN6UQ?oc=5" target="_blank">Iran tells world to get ready for oil at $200 a barrel as it fires on merchant ships</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<font color="#6f6f6f">Reuters</font>