الدولار يحقق مكاسب متواضعة مع تقلب أسعار النفط الخام

A U_S_ banknote that is digitally warped by Ruslan Lytvyn via Shutterstock

The dollar index (DXY00) is up by +0.05% today. The dollar found support today after WTI crude oil prices rose more than +2% to a 1-week high, which raises inflation expectations and may persuade the Fed to tighten monetary policy, a supportive factor for the dollar. However, the dollar fell back from its best level as crude prices erased most of their overnight gains when Pakistan signaled the US and Iran were close to an arrangement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

US July existing home sales fell -1.7% m/m to 4.06 million, close to expectations of 4.05 million.

More News from Barchart

The risk of a renewed flare-up across the Middle East remains high, which is providing safe-haven demand for the dollar. Another UAE tanker was targeted by an Iranian missile on Saturday while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Also, on Sunday, Houthi militants in Yemen claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery.

The markets are discounting a 48% probability of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16.

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down by -0.02% today. The euro is slightly lower today amid strength in the dollar. Also, today's rally in crude oil prices to a 1-week high is bearish for the Eurozone economy and the euro, as Europe imports most of its energy. The euro recovered from its worst level as crude oil gave up most of its overnight advance after Pakistan signaled optimism that the US and Iran appeared close to some sort of arrangement over the Strait of Hormuz.

The markets are discounting an 88% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.

USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down by -0.03% today. The yen rebounded from a 1-week low against the dollar today and moved slightly higher after crude oil prices gave up most of an overnight 2% advance. The yen also recovered today after T-notes gave up overnight gains and turned lower, a positive factor for the yen. Trading activity in the yen may be below normal with markets in Japan closed today for the Mountain Day holiday.

The yen has near-term support amid signs the US would continue joint intervention in the forex market in support of the yen. Kyodo reported on Monday that BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's strong signal for a BOJ interest rate increase next month was the decisive factor behind the recent coordinated intervention in the yen by Japan and the US.