الدولار تحت الضغط بسبب ضعف أسعار النفط الخام

The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.02% today. The dollar index is under slight pressure as an easing of tensions in the Middle East has curbed safe-haven demand for the currency after the US and Iran held off attacks on one another for a third straight day. Also, today's -6% plunge in WTI crude oil has lowered inflation expectations and could prompt the Fed to pursue easier monetary policy, a negative factor for the dollar. In addition, weakness in T-note yields today has weakened the dollar's interest rate differentials.

The dollar recovered from its worst level today after Jun capital goods new orders, nondefense, ex-aircraft and parts rose more than expected, a sign of economic strength. Some safe-haven demand also supports the dollar as President Trump has raised the possibility of intensified action against Iran and as Houthi militants in Yemen claimed to have struck facilities linked to Saudi Aramco in the Red Sea port towns of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday.

More News from Barchart

US Jun capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.7% m/m.

The markets are discounting a 34% probability of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up by +0.04% today. Dollar weakness today is supporting the euro. Also, today's larger-than-expected increase in the German Jul IFO business confidence index to a 5-month high is bullish for the euro. In addition, today's -6% fall in crude oil prices is supportive of the Eurozone economy and the euro as Europe imports most of its energy. Finally, hawkish comments today from ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir were bullish for the euro when he said he favors another ECB interest rate increase.

The German Jul IFO business confidence index rose +0.9 to a 5-month high of 86.6, stronger than expectations of 86.0.

ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said "he remains of the view that the ECB will have to raise interest rates at least one more time" to ensure that inflation risks don't spin out of control.

The markets are discounting an 88% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.

USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down by -0.05% today, recovering further from last Thursday's 39-year low of 163.99 yen/USD, amid ongoing risk of intervention to support the yen. Japanese authorities have intervened in the forex market several times in the past when the yen surpassed 160 yen/USD, as it has this week.