توقعات سعر الدولار الأمريكي: تراهنات رفع الفائدة تزداد مع تركيز الأنظار على مؤشر أسعار المستهلك؛ مستويات رئيسية لزوجي EUR/USD وGBP/USD للمراقبة

Dollar Index Outlook: Dollar Firms as Fed Hike Bets Rise, While ECB Tightening Tests Euro The US dollar begins its week with renewed fundamental support as soaring inflation and the Middle East energy crisis strengthen the case for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve. U.S. producer prices rose 0.4% in August and are another sign that pressed energy prices are beginning to impact inflation. Almost three-quarters of the bets made in Futures markets indicate that the Federal Reserve is expected to implement a 25 basis point hike at its next meeting. The 10 year treasury has also surged to 5%, indicating the market is becoming more concerned of stagflation. The main event of the day will be the consumer price index. A higher than expected inflation reading would aid the market's bets of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting. A softer reading could reverse those expectations. The extended yield curve of the dollar is also giving the currency an added preference due to the fragile risk appetite caused by disrupted Middle Eastern energy supplies. The ECB made two moves yesterday with a 25 basis point hike on its deposit rate to 2.5% and setting a forecasted growth rate of 0.9% for 2026. The ECB is also projecting average inflation of 3% for 2022 and 2.5% for 2027. For the ECB, even higher interest rates will help gel yield differential, but risk of weakening the economy further remains. Sterling may be affected more by the policy divergence. The market is largely predicting that the Bank of England will keep interest rates at their current levels when they meet next. Bailey, who is the Governor, has been remarks against markets that show speculation of more hikes. GDP data for July is expected to show that the UK economy did not grow. The inflation and wage data will also help the BoE see how bad the effect of the energy shock will be on them. Fundamental bias: DXY bears moderately, EUR bulls may be neutral, GBP bears may be neutral. U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Holds 98.72 as 99.16 Resistance Caps the Recovery Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Currently, DXY is trading at 99.07, having recovered from the 98.72 support zone. What I am seeing is price has recovered above the short-term moving averages, but the recovery is running into the 99.16 resistance zone where sellers are stepping in. This keeps the recovery constructive, but not strong enough for me to consider it a reversal. The first resistance zone I am looking at is 99.16. If price clears this, then 99.28 and 99.39 come into play. If price continues to fall, then 98.99 will until 98.88 and 98.72 become significant.