توقعات سعر الدولار الأمريكي: رهانات رفع الفائدة ترفع مؤشر DXY مع ضعف اليورو والجنيه الإسترليني

Dollar Index Outlook: Fed Hike Bets and 5% Treasury Yields Lift Dollar as EUR and GBP Face Policy Tests The U.S. dollar starts the week stronger on a strengthening fundamental backdrop, with higher energy prices and elevated Treasury yields. Market participants have a higher perception of the likelihood that the Fed hikes interest rates tomorrow at 93%. The 10-year Treasury yield broke 5% for the first time since October this year with most of the market expecting a rate hike, and this reinforced the advantage that the dollar has with respect to yield. The Middle East conflict has exacerbated this situation. With increased violence in the region, disruptions to the flow of energy, and heightened concerns on inflation, all combined with weaker risk appetite, safe haven flows have favored the U.S. Dollar Index. While the dollar's next substantial move may depend on the lengths the Fed is prepared to extend its tightening cycle, with the move largely priced in, for now market participants are focusing on the impact of the ECB's rate hike. The U.S. yield curve has strengthened and the ECB hiking by 25 basis points last week, but the economic impact of higher energy prices combined with the tightening financial conditions has been weighing on the euro. From a policy perspective, the backdrop is less supportive. Thus, the euro has been unable to extend gains from the ECB's action, leading market participants to pay more attention to the impact of the U.S. yield curve on the euro. Sterling continues to cool with recent data releases on UK labor from Tuesday. Unemployment remained at 4.9% and wage growth remained at 3.5%. Additionally, vacancies fell to 702,000, which is the lowest level since 2021. These numbers have given the Bank of England (BOE) the ability to remain patient with the high and rising energy costs that drive inflation. Initially, markets priced in less than a third chance of a rate hike for Thursday's meeting. Although, many are now pricing in rate hikes this year after Thursday's meeting. Fundamental bias: DXY bullish, EUR neutral-to-bearish, GBP neutral-to-bearish, Wednesday's Fed guidance and Thursday's BoE decision will be the main catalysts. U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Holds Above 99.58 as 99.74 Becomes the Next Upside Test Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Currently, the USD Index is trading at 99.65 on the 1-hour chart. The price is holding above the trendline which becomes increasingly higher, all while being comfortably above both the moving averages. The last break of 99.58 suggests that buyers are maintaining their control over the market, and might be approaching another cluster of resistance.