عدم اليقين بشأن إعادة فتح مضيق هرمز يرفع أسعار الخام

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) closed up +0.89 (+1.15%) on Friday, and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0468 (+1.59%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices settled higher on Friday, supported by a decline in the dollar ($DXY) to a 7-week low. Also, uncertainty regarding a proposed plan by Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is boosting crude prices.

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The oil market is monitoring progress toward a deal between Iran and Oman to partially restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A joint statement from the two countries is under review, and the route would remain active for two to four months, though the agreement does not mean a full reopening, according to Iranian officials. Iran said that a normalization of the strait will depend on the US lifting its blockade on Iranian ports.

Gains in crude oil are limited after President Trump said negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are "moving along." However, the Wall Street Journal reported that Arab negotiators are concerned that Iran's diplomats may not be able to guarantee compliance with any agreement reached, as Iran's lead negotiators are under pressure from hardline officials to eke out more explicit references to Iran's role in the strait and clearer benefits. On Thursday, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported that vessels belonging to the US, Israel, or any other nation that has "caused damage" to Iran would be prohibited from the Strait of Hormuz under the proposed deal with Oman to reopen the waterway, which would restrict some oil exports from several Gulf States.

Crude prices also have support on concerns about oil supplies from the Middle East after Yemen's Houthi rebels said they targeted a Saudi oil tanker with a ballistic missile on Thursday in the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis said they will escalate attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the northern Red Sea to prevent them from transiting the area.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Ukraine has attacked Russian refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second highest monthly number of attacks since the war began in 2022. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports. Russia is the world's number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa.