أسعار النفط الخام ترتفع بسبب مخاطر الإمدادات العالمية

August WTI crude oil (CLQ26) today is up +1.75 (+2.10%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ26) is up +0.0017 (+0.05%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices are pushing higher today, with crude climbing to a 5-week high. The threat to global oil supplies is boosting crude oil prices today as the US-Iran war has curbed oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and threats by Houthi militants to blockade Saudi Arabia have reduced oil tanker traffic through the Red Sea.

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The US and Iran exchanged strikes for a 10th consecutive day today as mediators sought to revive a truce, with the US targeting military command centers, launch sites and air defenses in Iran and Iran attacking US military sites in Kuwait and Jordan. The UK navy also reported today that Iran struck two vessels around the Strait of Hormuz. Gains in crude oil accelerated today after several oil tankers turned back from transiting the Red Sea after warnings from Houthi militants in Yemen that they would target ships heading to or from Saudi ports.

The New York Times reported on Monday that the US is sending more warplanes to the Middle East, including F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, a possible sign that US military operations could expand in the coming days. Also, President Trump said today the US has "no interest" in meeting with Iran until they are ready for serious peace negotiations.

Signs that the conflict in the Middle East is widening are also supporting crude oil after Houthi rebels said on Monday that they will impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they say is the kingdom's siege on the Yemeni capital, a potential threat to Saudi Arabian crude exports through the Red Sea. President Trump said today that if there is a blockade in the Red Sea, the US "will take care of it."

Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned last Wednesday that it's too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.91 million bpd in the first 10 days of July, the lowest in 21 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia's 34 largest refineries. As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports. Russia is the world's number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa.