أسعار النفط الخام تحت الضغط بسبب تنامي التفاؤل بإعادة فتح مضيق هرمز قريباً

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) is down -0.61 (-0.81%) today, and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) is up +0.0130 (+0.46%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices added to this week's sharp losses today, with crude falling to a 3-week low and gasoline dropping to a 4.75-month nearest-futures low. Growing optimism that the US and Iran are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is pushing crude oil prices lower today. Crude prices remained lower after today's weekly EIA crude inventories unexpectedly increased. However, gasoline recovered its losses and moved higher after weekly EIA gasoline inventories fell more than expected to an 8.5-month low.

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Crude prices are under pressure today after the AP reported that Iranian and Omani negotiators have finalized a draft deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and are awaiting final approval from Iran's supreme leader. Separately, Axios reported that the US, Iran and Oman were nearing an interim 60-day accord to reopen the waterway that would involve no tolls or fees, with inbound vessels using a northern lane and outbound traffic a southern one.

Crude prices initially moved higher in overnight trading after a Houthi military spokesperson said the group will escalate attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the northern Red Sea to prevent them from transiting the area.

Robust crude supplies in China may reduce Chinese crude purchases in the near term, a bearish factor for oil prices. China's crude inventories remain abundant, with supplies falling by only 54 million bbl since early May to around 1.2 billion bbl, according to data from Kpler.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Ukraine has attacked Russian refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second highest monthly number of attacks since the war began in 2022. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports. Russia is the world's number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa.