التفاؤل بإعادة فتح مضيق هرمز يدفع أسعار الخام للانخفاض

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Tuesday closed down -4.57 (-5.69%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed down -0.1145 (-3.86%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices sold off sharply on Tuesday for a second day, with crude falling to a 3-week low and gasoline dropping to a 4.75-month nearest-futures low. Growing hopes that the US and Iran are moving to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are weighing on crude prices. Also, an increase in Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea is boosting global crude supplies and undercutting oil prices.

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Crude prices fell sharply on Tuesday after a Qatari spokesman said a proposed resolution "is being circulated between the US and Iran," cautioning that a deal has not yet been reached. Crude prices extended their losses today when Treasury Secretary Bessent said: "There is a chance we may have a deal on Tuesday or Wednesday to open the strait." Also, the key Saudi export port of Yanbu in the Red Sea had its busiest day on Monday since Houthi rebels began attacking shipping in the region, as more ships transited through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint.

Crude prices initially moved higher in overnight trading after President Trump threatened Iran with renewed air strikes and stressed that his latest offer of talks is Iran's "last chance" as he demanded full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A diplomatic resolution is hanging on ongoing talks between Oman and Iran to get more ships moving through the strait.

Robust crude supplies in China may reduce Chinese crude purchases in the near term, a bearish factor for oil prices. China's crude inventories remain abundant, with supplies falling by only 54 million bbl since early May to around 1.2 billion bbl, according to data from Kpler.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Ukraine has attacked Russian refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second highest monthly number of attacks since the war began in 2022. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports. Russia is the world's number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa.