IPO Market Stalls Four Months After SpaceX's $75 Billion Debut

OpenAI has pushed its IPO to 2027 and Anthropic is eyeing mid-November, while just 32% of money managers expect a pickup, down from 63% six months ago. Bankers blame lukewarm demand, AI valuation fears and pop-and-drop selling, with Unitree Robotics jumping 460% on debut before sliding 46.7%. SpaceX's $75 billion June listing failed to spark the expected IPO wave, and Oura, SB Energy, EG Group and Holtec have all postponed or pulled deals. It was hoped SpaceX’s blockbuster June flotation would add rocket boosters to the global IPO market. But four months on, momentum has come crashing back down to earth. Wall Street IPOs have slowed considerably since Elon Musk’s $75bn (£56.7bn) listing, damaging what was once expected to be a quarter chock-full of floats. Smart-ring maker Oura was the latest company to stall its listing just last week, while data centre company SB Energy, petrol station empire EG Group and nuclear energy firm Holtec have all also postponed. The pauses have cast a dark cloud over the market, particularly for tech megacaps Open AI and Anthropic which were both expected to be hot on Musk’s heels back in the summer. AI doubts and ‘pop and drop’ Investment bankers and analysts have pinned the shift on lukewarm investor demand coupled with fears over soaring valuations in the booming artificial intelligence sector. Renaissance Capital analysts wrote that after the strong second quarter, “issuers prepped deals with price expectations that look too high for today’s choppier market”. Worries about a downturn in the AI sector have ballooned recently as investors fret over valuations and data centre pushback continues. SB Energy, which has backing from global tech firm SoftBank, was among the firms attracting backlash over its valuation. It was reportedly targeting $50bn despite failing to bring a single facility online. Scepticism has also grown in the wake of ‘pop and drop’, where investors initiate aggressive sell-offs in the days following an IPO in response to listings that were vastly oversubscribed. SpaceX’s shares surged roughly 19 per cent on the first day of trading but have been on a downward trajectory over the past few months, currently hovering around $158.9. Tech-heavy markets beyond the US have also not been immune to investor doubt. Shanghai listed humanoid robot manufacturer Unitree Robotics surged 460 per cent above its IPO price in its first session, but has since tumbled 46.7 per cent. Volatility shocks Renaissance Capital added that “postponed IPOs may cite adverse market conditions, when the reality looks closer to normalised market conditions”. Firms disconnected to the AI boom were among those who blamed widespread market volatility on their decision to hold off listing. Oura, which was aiming to raise as much as $2.2bn in a $15.6bn listing , blamed “uncertainty in the IPO market”. Holtec also cited unfavourable market conditions when it withdrew its IPO filing last month. The growing sense of caution follows months of volatile oil prices sparked by the war in the Middle East and rising bond yields. Economic uncertainty also led both Open AI and rival Anthropic to hit the brakes on their filings, despite both initially racing to be the first to list. Anthropic, which is aiming for a jaw-dropping $2 trillion valuation, is now expected to list in mid-November, while Open AI has now pushed back to 2027. Global uncertainty While the US has primarily felt the effects of the IPO slowdown, other markets have also suffered. The UK has recorded just seven listings this year, raising £577m in the first half of the year according to EY. Uzbekistan’s national investment fund Uznif has been coined the only one of note, upon listing a 30 per cent stake in London and Tashkent in May. “Many companies continue to assess launch timing against a backdrop of fiscal policy developments, monetary policy expectations and wider macroeconomic uncertainty,” said Kat Kravtsov, capital markets director at Pwc UK. “While a limited number of listings are expected before the end of 2026, much of the visible pipeline is focused on early 2027. Investors continue to balance long-term optimism with ongoing fiscal, monetary and geopolitical risks.” London received a shot in the arm last week when African payments firm Airtel Money confirmed its £5.3bn debut for October 14. But money managers remain broadly pessimistic, as just 32 per cent expect activity to pick up in the next 12 months, according to Berenberg’s latest Investor Barometer. This is down from 63 per cent six months ago. Fears of IPO derailment have also seeped into Europe, as boutique hotel company Ennismore, which is in a joint venture with French hospitality company Accor has reportedly reconsidered their IPO plans. By City AM More Top Reads From Oilprice.com