عمان: بحاران مفقودان بعد هجوم على ناقلة في مضيق هرمز

One of the world’s largest oilfield service providers has refused to get involved in the Sea Lion oil project off the coast of the Falkland Islands, amid a step-up in pressure from the Argentine president on the companies leading the work. Halliburton, in fact, refuses to take part in any oil or gas development around the contested islands. The company’s declaration of non-involvement follows contacts with the Argentine government, Halliburton has said. These contacts, according to the company, featured “questions concerning criminal and civil enforcement under existing legislation, proposed new criminal and civil measures, and regulations governing right-to-contract certification.” The Sea Lion project began as an oil discovery back in 2010, when UK-based Rockhopper Exploration struck crude in the deep waters off the Falklands. With reserves estimated at some 315 million barrels of recoverable sweet crude, peak production was seen at 50,000 barrels daily. Since the beginning, however, work on the discovery has faced a series of setbacks due to its capital-intensive nature because of its location plus pressure from Argentine, which repeatedly signaled it very much minded offshore oil development off the Falklands, which it claims as its own. Things around Sea Lion finally started moving in 2021 when Israeli Navitas Energy took over the operatorship of the project with a 65% stake, and Harbour Energy, an earlier investor, left. Related: Gulf Producers Say Importers Should Share the Cost of Hormuz Workarounds The final investment decision on the project was made in December last year, with first oil expected to start flowing in 2028—and not a moment too soon, after Aramco’s chief executive said earlier this week it would take the world up to two years to refill drained crude oil inventories. But it is still too early for optimism about Sea Lion, because the pressure campaign from Buenos Aires is not stopping. Last month, President Javier Milei threatened to impose sanctions on the companies drilling near the Falkland Islands, after reiterating his claim that the territory under British control is Argentine. The Falklands are “historically and legally” Argentine, Milei said in a televised address in early September, apparently emboldened by the recent hints from U.S. President Donald Trump that the U.S. could review its neutrality on the issue and may not back the UK in the Falklands dispute because of the lack of UK support for the U.S. war in Iran. Then, later in September, Milei threatened to sue the UK if Navitas Energy and Rockhopper Exploration did not stop their drilling work offshore the islands. “I instructed the Foreign Ministry and our legal teams to initiate international arbitration against the United Kingdom for the illegal plundering of our resources through the Sea Lion Project in the North Malvinas Basin,” the Argentine president wrote on the social media platform. “If in 2 weeks the United Kingdom does not halt the illegitimate exploitation, we will go to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. THE MALVINAS ARE ARGENTINE, and they are defended with facts, not words,” Milei also wrote. Halliburton’s declaration about its non-involvement is the latest example of Argentine pressure, which quite likely has a lot to do with Buenos Aires’ own plans for energy expansion, driven by the Vaca Muerta shale formation. The play has been breaking production records consistently, turning oil and gas into key drivers for economic growth. According to Rystad Energy, production of crude oil in Vaca Muerta could hit 1 million barrels daily by 2030. Clearly, with such potential for growth and the resulting regional dominance, Argentina does not need the competition of a field that is in a contested territory, no less. Now, the question for Navitas Energy and Rockhopper Exploration is whether they could find an oilfield services provider who would agree to face the risk of lawsuits and sanctions alongside them. By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Centuries ago, the untamed jungles of Venezuela’s Orinoco Basin helped power the myth of El Dorado, a city made entirely of gold. But for the new adventurers staking a claim in the country’s black gold instead, there is no myth involved, but rather the world’s largest crude oil reserves of 303 billion barrels. The latest two firms to sign agreements in this black gold rush are the U.S.’s Halliburton and France’s TotalEnergies, with each having played central roles in the West’s search to replace lost oil and gas supplies resulting from sanctions on Russia after it invaded on 24 February 2022. So, what is the West’s plan in Venezuela from now on and will it work? Oilfield service provider Halliburton has signed two memoranda of understanding (MOUs) with Brazil’s largest private natural gas operator, Eneva, and engineering firm WESCA (West-Construcciones, which is focused on developing heavy oil resources in the Orinoco and Maracaibo basins). The U.S. giant will deploy its digital technologies and subsurface interpretation tools to handle field evaluation and development planning. According to data from Baker Hughes, there were only two active onshore drilling rigs in Venezuela at the end of July, although since then SLB has stated that it has as many as 15 rigs already positioned in the country that could return to service within one year. In effect, then, Halliburton is positioning itself to capture the immediate wave of service and capital expenditure spending required to bring the Orinoco Belt’s drilling capacity back to life. Related: The World’s Gold Producers Are Starting to Hoard Their Own Gold Although no details were publicly available on the deal that Total signed with PDVSA, a senior source who works closely with the European Union’s (EU) energy security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com last week that among the oil fields included is Travi, a major light crude oil field located in the northern part of eastern Venezuela’s Monagas state. In contrast to the 75% or so of the country’s oil reserves that are classified as ‘heavy’, the northern Monagas fields -- including Travi, Orocual, and Jusepin -- contain predominantly light crude oil that is often used to dilute extra-heavy crude grades. The new deal marks a reversal of TotalEnergies previous stance on Venezuela, which saw it withdraw from the joint venture Petrocedeno in 2021. The recent agreement may well signal a broader shift by European majors back into the country on the basis that legal protections for them under the post-Nicolás Maduro government are tough enough to protect their interests over the long term. In this context, the Orinoco Belt-block operated by Petrocedeno is now part of the agreement signed between the U.S. Departments of State and Defense and North American Blue Energy Partners in late August. This agreement saw Washington take over more than a fifth of Venezuela’s oil reserves in a deal signed by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright on 2 September, which was characterised by U.S. President Donald Trump as being “the biggest oil deal in world history”. That looks a reasonable statement, given that it covers 65 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves across 17 fields -- nearly 1.5 times the size of the U.S.’s entire current territorial reserves of around 46 billion barrels. The 100-year length of the concession also dwarfs the typical 20-to-30-year span of modern oil concessions. Unsurprisingly, the private entity driving the deal -- North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) -- has become the second-largest private oil company by reserves in the world (after ExxonMobil), while the U.S. Department of War holds a 35% equity stake. The extraordinary move was, in turn, part of Trump’s second-presidency vision of the world, as delineated in the U.S.’s ‘2025 National Security Strategy’. It states: “After years of neglect, the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region.” It adds: “We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere. Venezuela is part of what Washington sees as its own primary hemisphere. These ideas dovetail with the 31 August White House Fact Sheet which, under the sub-heading ‘Reasserting The Monroe Doctrine & Expelling Foreign Adversaries From Our Hemisphere’, states: “The majority of the incremental oil fields to be operated by NABEP were previously controlled or operated by Russian and Chinese firms, or by corrupt cronies of Maduro and [Hugo] Chavez.” It continues: “These malign foreign actors looted Venezuela’s resources for the benefit of American adversaries like Cuba, Russia and China and failed to invest in Venezuela’s infrastructure or development.” The new deal with Venezuela, it adds, is precisely part of the re-establishment of the Monroe Doctrine, focused on “purging malign influence from our backyard and ensuring American dominance in our hemisphere is never again questioned”. With an eye, perhaps, on future energy security threats resulting from military actions by China, the Fact Sheet concludes: “By working with both new and old partners, President Trump’s Administration is forging new robust, strategic and defensible supply chains in our hemisphere to support the revitalization of our manufacturing and energy sectors after years of globalist decline.” That said, although international oil companies’ faith in the legal security surrounding their investments looks well placed, it is by no means guaranteed. The major problem from this perspective is that Venezuela’s constitution requires National Assembly approval for any long-term concessions over strategic national resources -- 100 years and oil absolutely fit the bill here. Worse still in this respect is that the deal was negotiated by an interim government whose constitutional legitimacy is already contested. Consequently, any future government could argue that as the interim administration lacked authority, the entire agreement should be declared ultra vires (beyond legal powers) and void. In fact, this could be done even without any change in government, as Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice possesses the constitutional mechanisms to challenge, freeze, or entirely invalidate the NABEP concession. Such a challenge could be mounted solely based on the transfer of control over Venezuelan oil reserves to a foreign power, which is also strictly prohibited under the country’s constitution. Nonetheless, given evidence that the full weight of Trump’s presidency is behind the deal, plans are afoot from other powerhouse oil firms to re-establish a strong presence. U.S. oil and gas giant Chevron’s chief financial officer, Eimear Bonner, during a recent earnings call highlighted that the supermajor has increased its oil production in Venezuela from 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 250,000 bpd over the past few years. Based only on its three current joint ventures in the country, output has risen over just the past six months by 12% year on year to 280,000 bpd. This followed the mid-April announcement of an asset-swap agreement with PDVSA, under which Chevron received an additional 13.21% interest in the Petroindependencia joint venture, increasing its total stake to 49%. The U.S. firm’s other two joint ventures include Petropiar (in which a Chevron subsidiary holds a 30% interest and has the rights to develop the adjacent Ayacucho 8 area in the Orinoco Oil Belt), and Petroindependiente (in which it has a 25.2% non-operated interest in the west of the country). Looking ahead, Bonner added that Chevron expects its production across Venezuela to rise by 50% between now and the end of 2028, which would bring the total up to 420,000 bpd. Natural gas expansion projects are also being worked on in parallel with those in oil, with Repsol and Italy’s Eni having finalised a joint strategic arrangement with the Ministry of Hydrocarbons for a major gas project at the jointly owned Cardón IV asset in the offshore Perla field, which already supplies around 30% of Venezuela’s gas demand. Moreover, following a preliminary MoU signed in April, UK oil and gas supermajor BP officially set up a permanent office in Caracas, appointed a dedicated country manager, and secured an official license to explore and develop Phase 2 of the offshore Loran gas field. The British firm will act as the primary operator of the venture, holding equal interest alongside Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s international arm and Qatar-based UCC Holding. The Loran Phase 2 block alone contains an estimated 4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable natural gas, but it extends across the border into the Trinidadian Manatee/Manakin fields, which are estimated to contain up to 10 Tcf of gas. According to BP, it will pipe the extracted gas directly to Trinidad, rather than building new facilities in Venezuela, whereupon it will be liquefied at the Atlantic LNG export terminal (in which BP owns a 45% stake) and shipped to global markets from there. BP has also recently finalised a separate preliminary agreement for the Carúpano East Block, located in the Mariscal Sucre maritime area off Venezuela’s northeastern coast. By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

For most of modern history, the gold trade worked one way: emerging-market mines dug it up, shipped it out (often as cheap ore, more often through the back door), and London and New York did the rest. But that arrangement is now quietly breaking down. According to a must-read report in Nikkei Asia, countries across Asia are moving to capture more of the value from the gold boom by refining domestically, taxing exports and having their central banks buy local production. Nikkei calls it "a new form of resource nationalism", and one that "could exert upward pressure on gold prices over the medium to long term." The two reasons it gives will be very familiar to regular readers: waning confidence in the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, and the fact that dollar assets of countries at odds with Washington have been frozen under sanctions. In other words, the world's gold producers have noticed the same thing the world's central banks noticed in 2022: gold is the one reserve asset nobody else can freeze, and they are sitting on top of it. Below we walk through who is hoarding gold and how, why Goldman thinks central-bank (and now producer-country) demand is doing "nearly all" the work in its $5,400 gold forecast, and why - for now - none of that has been enough to beat a hiking Fed. From Vientiane To Jakarta: Everyone Wants A Refinery Now Start with Laos, which produced roughly 12 tons of mined gold in 2025 (the sixth-largest output in Asia, per the World Gold Council and Metals Focus) and estimates its reserves at 500-1,000 tons. Until now, most of that left the country as ore, "through both official and unofficial channels." In 2024 the government set up the Lao Bullion Bank, which aims to refine local gold at home, raise gold's share of the country's FX reserves, and give citizens a trusted place to store their savings. Laotian PM Sonexay Siphandone now calls gold development "a key priority in strengthening our economic foundation." The head of the Japan Bullion Market Association, who attended the launch event, described the speed of the build-out as "astonishing." Indonesia, the world's 10th-largest producer at more than 100 tons a year, is going further: it announced last year an export tax of up to 15% on gold, effective 2026, because domestic supply can't keep up with local investment demand. Regular readers will recall that we flagged Jakarta's levy (Nov 17, 2025) when it was still in its "final stage," complete with a sliding scale that rises with the gold price. At roughly $4,150/oz, a 15% duty works out to about $620 an ounce, which is a very polite way of saying "please don't export this." And then there is China, the world's largest producer at a little over 380 tons a year (about a tenth of global output), which is also a major importer. As market analyst Jeff Toshima told Nikkei, "As a rule, taking gold out of the country is restricted." More on Beijing below. The trend isn't limited to Asia. Madagascar's central bank has been buying domestically produced gold since the early 2020s under a Gold Purchase Program that its gold operations supervisor calls "the cornerstone of this reserve diversification strategy." Ghana, the world's sixth-largest producer, signed an MoU with the WGC in July to curb illegal mining and make sure "the benefits of Ghana's gold resources are realized by our communities and our nation as a whole." Translation: the cheap ore pipeline to Western refiners is narrowing, and the people who run those refiners know it. "From the perspective of major international refiners ... absolutely this trend will have an impact on their ability to source," Metals Focus MD Nikos Kavalis told Nikkei. Toshima also supplied the historical irony: "Gold from the colonies flowed into London and helped underpin the British Empire's gold standard." The colonies, it seems, would now like to keep the gold. Rerouting gold away from the West to dodge sanctions isn't new either; we noted it in real time right after Russia's reserves were frozen: *RUSSIAN GOLD PRODUCERS EXPLORE EXPORTS TO UAE, CHINA Similar to Turkey-Dubai-Iran gold triangle — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 1, 2022 The Sanctions Premium The common thread is the one we have been pounding the table on since the spring of 2022: once the US and its allies froze Russia's FX reserves, every reserve manager in the non-aligned world learned that a dollar asset is only as safe as your relationship with Washington. ANZ's Geullim Yum put it diplomatically to Nikkei: as the dollar-centered system "comes under scrutiny, gold is gaining importance as an asset insulated from the political and fiscal policies of any single country." The data back it up. As SocGen's cross-asset team noted in its "China is buying gold again. Are you?" note (available to pro subs, and which we discussed last month), the dollar's share of global FX reserves fell to 57% in 2025, down more than 5 points since 2022, while 62% of reserve managers in the 2026 central bank survey expect it to keep declining moderately over the next five years and 84% expect gold to make up a bigger share of their reserves. SocGen's summary is about as blunt as sell-side prose gets: central banks, "China, among others," are "buying the dips while continuing to reduce US Treasury holdings at a steady pace, as the de-dollarisation theme continues unabated." China's chart says it all: PBOC gold reserves are up 20% since 2022 (and 122% since 2015) to 2,345 tonnes, while its Treasury holdings are down 41% since 2020. China: Officially 20 Tonnes, Unofficially Much More Officially, the PBOC added 20 tons in August, its 22nd consecutive month of net purchases, which Nikkei notes is the longest streak since comparable data began in December 1999. Unofficially, the number is much bigger, which is something we have been flagging since 2024 (and again here, Jun 13, 2025), well before the FT "confirmed" it (Nov 15, 2025): Nothing has changed since. Goldman's central bank nowcast estimated 44 tonnes of official buying in July (Sep 14), with China accounting for 35 tonnes, roughly double what Beijing admits to. On a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, Goldman's Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven now see central banks buying ~91 tonnes per month, more than five times the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes. Then there's the private side, where the hoarding is even louder. Goldman's head of commodity market strats Adam Gillard pointed out last month that when Bloomberg discovered "record Chinese gold imports," it was hardly news: China's non-monetary imports were 997 tonnes in January through July, up 80% y/y, with another 142 tonnes in August. Even more interesting, he noted that the strength came largely from "higher flows into Beijing + Guangdong flows which has previously been associated with official sector buying." Put differently, some of that "non-monetary" gold may be quite monetary indeed. Gillard's numbers also show who is holding up the market. Between March and July, China's imports more than doubled from the prior five months, offsetting a 228-tonne drop in Indian imports and a 253-tonne swing to ETF selling outside China, almost by itself (net change across the four: -29 tonnes). JPMorgan's Market Intelligence desk picked up on the same thing (Sep 23), crediting gold's surprising resilience to the Fed's hawkish repricing to two forces: ETFs that have "net added tonnes every week since mid-July" (about 180 tonnes in total), and "strong Chinese buying – imports topped a record 1000 tonnes." Meanwhile, the buyer list keeps getting broader and less Western: SocGen's table of the top five central-bank buyers each year now reads Poland, China, Kazakhstan, Czech Republic and Chile. Goldman: Central Banks Are Doing "Nearly All" The Heavy Lifting This is where the Nikkei story ties into the bull case. In its latest Precious Analyst note, "Fed Hikes to Slow, Rather than Derail, the Gold Rally", Goldman kept its $5,400/toz end-2027 forecast despite the Fed's hike, and was explicit about what is driving it: Continued central bank diversification remains the main structural driver of our constructive gold view, contributing nearly all of our expected 23% appreciation through end-2027. ... Reflecting this acceleration, we raise our central bank demand assumption to 60 tonnes/month on average through 2026-27, versus 50 tonnes/month in 2026 and 40 tonnes/month in 2027 previously. We continue to view reserve diversification following the 2022 freeze of Russian central bank assets as structural, and recent central bank conversations suggest the appetite for gold remains strong. ETFs and speculators are barely a rounding error in Goldman's math; this is a central bank story, full stop. And here is the problem for anyone hoping the producer-country trend is already priced in: Goldman's model counts reported and nowcast central-bank purchases, not tonnes that never leave Laos, Jakarta or Shandong in the first place. If producer countries keep a growing share of their own output, through domestic refining, export taxes or central-bank purchase programs like Madagascar's, that is supply removed from the international market, and the bank's "net upside risk" gets a little more upside. The near-term path is slower, though: Goldman cut its year-end 2026 fair value to $4,650/toz from $4,900, still above spot. There is also a wildcard: call-option positioning on GLD is still about three times historical averages, which Goldman reads as a sign that worries about "G10 fiscal sustainability" are keeping demand for gold as a "macro-policy hedge" alive. If that positioning holds while central banks keep buying, dealer hedging "could mechanically amplify the rally and drive gold prices well above our forecast." (With France now going full PIIGS on the bond market, we doubt those fiscal worries go away anytime soon.) So Why Is Gold Down 12%? Because structural doesn't mean imminent. Gold hit a record above

OpenAI has pushed its IPO to 2027 and Anthropic is eyeing mid-November, while just 32% of money managers expect a pickup, down from 63% six months ago. Bankers blame lukewarm demand, AI valuation fears and pop-and-drop selling, with Unitree Robotics jumping 460% on debut before sliding 46.7%. SpaceX's $75 billion June listing failed to spark the expected IPO wave, and Oura, SB Energy, EG Group and Holtec have all postponed or pulled deals. It was hoped SpaceX’s blockbuster June flotation would add rocket boosters to the global IPO market. But four months on, momentum has come crashing back down to earth. Wall Street IPOs have slowed considerably since Elon Musk’s $75bn (£56.7bn) listing, damaging what was once expected to be a quarter chock-full of floats. Smart-ring maker Oura was the latest company to stall its listing just last week, while data centre company SB Energy, petrol station empire EG Group and nuclear energy firm Holtec have all also postponed. The pauses have cast a dark cloud over the market, particularly for tech megacaps Open AI and Anthropic which were both expected to be hot on Musk’s heels back in the summer. AI doubts and ‘pop and drop’ Investment bankers and analysts have pinned the shift on lukewarm investor demand coupled with fears over soaring valuations in the booming artificial intelligence sector. Renaissance Capital analysts wrote that after the strong second quarter, “issuers prepped deals with price expectations that look too high for today’s choppier market”. Worries about a downturn in the AI sector have ballooned recently as investors fret over valuations and data centre pushback continues. SB Energy, which has backing from global tech firm SoftBank, was among the firms attracting backlash over its valuation. It was reportedly targeting $50bn despite failing to bring a single facility online. Scepticism has also grown in the wake of ‘pop and drop’, where investors initiate aggressive sell-offs in the days following an IPO in response to listings that were vastly oversubscribed. SpaceX’s shares surged roughly 19 per cent on the first day of trading but have been on a downward trajectory over the past few months, currently hovering around $158.9. Tech-heavy markets beyond the US have also not been immune to investor doubt. Shanghai listed humanoid robot manufacturer Unitree Robotics surged 460 per cent above its IPO price in its first session, but has since tumbled 46.7 per cent. Volatility shocks Renaissance Capital added that “postponed IPOs may cite adverse market conditions, when the reality looks closer to normalised market conditions”. Firms disconnected to the AI boom were among those who blamed widespread market volatility on their decision to hold off listing. Oura, which was aiming to raise as much as $2.2bn in a $15.6bn listing , blamed “uncertainty in the IPO market”. Holtec also cited unfavourable market conditions when it withdrew its IPO filing last month. The growing sense of caution follows months of volatile oil prices sparked by the war in the Middle East and rising bond yields. Economic uncertainty also led both Open AI and rival Anthropic to hit the brakes on their filings, despite both initially racing to be the first to list. Anthropic, which is aiming for a jaw-dropping $2 trillion valuation, is now expected to list in mid-November, while Open AI has now pushed back to 2027. Global uncertainty While the US has primarily felt the effects of the IPO slowdown, other markets have also suffered. The UK has recorded just seven listings this year, raising £577m in the first half of the year according to EY. Uzbekistan’s national investment fund Uznif has been coined the only one of note, upon listing a 30 per cent stake in London and Tashkent in May. “Many companies continue to assess launch timing against a backdrop of fiscal policy developments, monetary policy expectations and wider macroeconomic uncertainty,” said Kat Kravtsov, capital markets director at Pwc UK. “While a limited number of listings are expected before the end of 2026, much of the visible pipeline is focused on early 2027. Investors continue to balance long-term optimism with ongoing fiscal, monetary and geopolitical risks.” London received a shot in the arm last week when African payments firm Airtel Money confirmed its £5.3bn debut for October 14. But money managers remain broadly pessimistic, as just 32 per cent expect activity to pick up in the next 12 months, according to Berenberg’s latest Investor Barometer. This is down from 63 per cent six months ago. Fears of IPO derailment have also seeped into Europe, as boutique hotel company Ennismore, which is in a joint venture with French hospitality company Accor has reportedly reconsidered their IPO plans. By City AM More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Japan plans to use the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) meeting later this week to agree with other Asian countries on action plans to increase oil reserves in the region, Japanese Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa, said on Tuesday. Resource-poor Japan, which needs to import almost all of the oil and gas it consumes, found itself scrambling for supply after the war in Iran trapped crude and LNG cargoes behind the Strait of Hormuz. The G7 economy’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, in April proposed a partnership with other Asian countries, the so-called Partnership on Wide Energy and Resources Resilience, or POWERR Asia, to bolster regional oil reserves. POWERR Asia is backed by a planned $10 billion (1.5 trillion Japanese yen) support package, to help Asian countries increase their oil stocks and protect against future disruptions. Now Japan will discuss with other Asian countries concrete steps to increase oil reserves and supply resilience as the Middle East crisis has dragged on in its eighth month. Japan also plans a special meeting with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the top crude oil exporters from the Middle East, to boost cooperation between Gulf producers and Asian consumers, the Japanese minister Akazawa told a news conference today, as carried by Reuters. Japan wants to be the hub linking Gulf producers with consumers in Asia, the official added. Japan in the spring moved to release crude from its strategic reserves as part of an IEA-coordinated global effort to release 400 million barrels of crude and oil products. Southeast Asia, which has been particularly hit by the Middle East crisis, also moved to agree on a petroleum security agreement in the spring, “to enable coordinated emergency fuel sharing and collective responses to supply disruption.” Southeast Asian economies such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam were the first to feel fuel shortages after the blocked Strait of Hormuz cut off most of their regular crude and fuel supply from the Middle East. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

In a country where cricket eclipses every other sport, the recently concluded Asian Games offered a much-needed reminder of India’s breadth of sporting talent. In this edition of the games, in Japan, India won 85 medals: 21 golds, 27 silver and 37 bronze medals. I admit I did not know many of the players competing, or even some of the sports they play before putting this piece together. Learning about the stories, I wonder why not. There were individual breakthroughs, records broken and history made. There were also hard-fought team victories, including the Indian women’s hockey team gold medal after a 44-year wait. Sports broadcaster Siddharth Pandey cited an old saying in the world of sport: “You cannot be what you cannot see.” For Pandey, one of the most heartening sights was families and communities rallying around the four female players from the north-eastern states. (The region has endured decades of conflict and is often overlooked in the national conversation.) “We simply cannot underestimate the impact these games and medals have on future generations taking up non-cricketing sport and wanting to excel in it,” he told me. Recognition is also important. Vidya Pillai, the first Indian woman to win a snooker world championship has spoken about her sport not getting the attention or respect it deserves. She felt unacknowledged following her 2023 feat, despite the fact that it came after six unsuccessful world finals and she beat two former world champions along the way. Behind India’s medal glory are dozens of athletes and families who have struggled financially, trained with limited facilities, and often without much institutional support. View image in fullscreen Indian athletes at the closing ceremony of the 2026 Asian Games, in Japan. Photograph: Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters So this week, I am sharing a sample of the many extraordinary stories from different parts of the country. These are only a fraction of the champions to emerge from the games, yet they provide a glimpse of the possibilities that can open up when a country sees and celebrates sporting talent across the spectrum. Neeru Dhanda (gold in trap shooting): Dhanda’s family in Haryana’s Jind relies on the government’s food subsidy programme and she began her sporting journey using a borrowed shotgun with tin cans as targets. Right before the games began, the 26-year-old spent a few days in a hospital recovering from an illness instead of training. But last week, as rain lashed the shooting range in Urenocho, she became the first Indian woman to win an individual gold in trap shooting at Asian games. She won a second gold in mixed team trap event as well as a silver in the women’s team trap event. Vithya Ramraj (gold in 4x400m): Ramraj was one of the breakout stars of the event with a three-medal haul. NDTV reported that her father had to borrow money to support Ramraj and her twin sister’s athletic careers. Alongside the team gold in 4x400m, she won a silver in the mixed 4x400m relay. She also broke Indian legend PT Usha’s long-held national record in 400m hurdles which won her a bronze medal. Sahil Jadhav (gold in compound mixed archery team and men’s compound team): Not long ago, Jadhav contemplated quitting archery, frustrated by not making the progress he had hoped for. He had been forced to compete with borrowed arrows for selection trials, the New Indian Express reported, adding that his mother sold her jewellery to buy him professional compound bows. Now, the 25-year-old has two gold medals and an automatic entry to the 2028 LA Olympics. Lalremsiami Hmarzote (member of the gold-winning women’s hockey team): The women’s hockey team forward once had to travel about 100 miles from her home to reach the only hockey academy in Mizoram. When she was growing up, her parents had no idea about what hockey and she played barefoot on dirt pitches. This month, playing her 200th international appearance, the 26-year-old struck gold. She scored the lone goal of the final against China, which Hockey India described as a “stunning reverse-stick strike”. Ancy Sojan (silver in long jump): With colourful beads glistening in her hair, Sojan flung herself 6.53 metres in long jump, to win the silver medal. Earlier this year, the 25-year-old broke the national record set in 2004. Her journey, from a village in Kerala’s Thrissur district to the international stage, has not been straightforward. Last year, she was diagnosed with polycystic ovarian syndrome, forcing her to drastically change her diet and manage the medication-related weight gain she had before the tournament. Aslam Inamdar (a member of the gold-winning men’s kabaddi team): Inamdar came to kabaddi, a south Asian contact sport combining elements of tag and wrestling, from humble beginnings – he was partly drawn to it because it was affordable and didn’t require expensive equipment. Coming from a village in Maharashtra’s Ahilyanagar, he worked odd jobs – from cleaning washrooms to working in the fields – so he could spend evenings training. “It still feels like a dream to me,” Inamdar told the Indian Express. “I often think about how someone who didn’t even have food at home now holds two international medals.” The 26-year-old was instrumental in helping India win their gold-medal match against Iran. I would love to hear from you: which sportsperson from the Asian Games did you find most inspiring and why? What else we’re reading about View image in fullscreen A tribute to pilot Smit Machchhar, whose swift actions helped save the lives of 174 passengers on a flydubai flight to Israel. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images Flydubai incident | Indian pilot Smit Machchar is being hailed as a hero for helping to save 174 passengers on the flydubai flight to Israel last week, after his co-pilot made an apparent effort to crash the plane. After being stabbed, Machchar opened the cockpit door, allowing passengers and crew to enter and overpower the attacker. He is recovering in a hospital in Saudi Arabia, where the plane eventually landed. Datacentres | Protests against water-guzzling datacentres erupting from the US to Australia are gathering momentum in India. South Asia correspondent Hannah Ellis-Petersen travelled to the small village of Tarluvada, in Andhra Pradesh, where the state government has been accused of fast-tracking plans for a $15bn AI datacentre for Google, allegedly to avoid stringent environmental scrutiny. Art and design | Designer Vikram Goyal, celebrated for his signature repoussé brass work, brings his installation Wings and Tales to a Georgian townhouse in London’s Mayfair from 12 to 16 October. The exhibition includes furniture designs inspired by landscapes from the Indian epic Ramayana. Guest shelf A recommendation from someone with great taste skip past newsletter promotion Free newsletter | Weekly Sign up to This is India Niha Masih takes a look at the stories, ideas and news makers of modern India Enter your email Sign up after newsletter promotion View image in fullscreen A detail of Al-Qawi Nanavati’s work. Shireen Gandhy, director of Mumbai’s pioneering Chemould Prescott Road Gallery, founded in 1963, recommends the work of artist Al-Qawi Nanavati. “[She] is a young artist from Bombay whose practice is rooted in printmaking and making her own paper. Her mother’s passing left her with a void,” says Gandhy. Nanavati created Letters to My Mother, an epistolary artwork crafted in, as Gandhy puts it, “a deeply personal language that is not known to anybody but her. Using fabrics and saris that belonged to her mother, she creates this tactile imagery for these letters. I find it very moving and like alchemy.” Count it A number worth knowing View image in fullscreen Students at a cram school in Kota, where every year hundreds of thousands of students take the Indian Institutes of Technology exam. Photograph: Saurabh Das/AP 13,626 This is the number of students from disadvantaged communities who dropped out of some of India’s most prestigious institutions: central universities, Indian Institutes of Technology and Indian Institutes of Management between 2018 and 2023, according to Anubhuti Vishnoi of the Economic Times. The figure comes from an interim report by a committee set up by the supreme court last year to examine mental health and suicide prevention in higher education. Vibe check View image in fullscreen Nitesh Shetty plays know-it-all for laughs. Photograph: Instagram/@ nitesh_shetty99 Nitesh Shetty’s sketches find absurdity in everyday life, turning familiar characters and social interactions into unexpected punchlines. This is what makes his work powerful: you’re laughing one moment and moved the next. There is a reel for every character imaginable: the person perpetually trapped in the limbo of land disputes, the man who is strangely knowledgeable about funerals, or the friend who has a unique dressing sense. The 35-year-old from Mumbai didn’t plan on a career in comedy. “When you don’t know what to do, you try anything,” he told me. Now, Shetty rejects more conventional formats such as television in favour of challenging himself creatively. His advice for those who look up to him? “It’s a great time to build something. The [online] audience is ready-made for you. Be original and don’t follow trends.” Get in touch Do you have any thoughts or responses to this week’s newsletter? Is there anything you’d like us to cover in the future? Share your feedback by replying to this, or emailing us at thisisindia@theguardian.com and we may include your response in a future issue.

The United Arab Emirates have reportedly warned the government it could cancel big investments in the UK after Manchester City were found guilty by an independent commission. Emirati officials said “the Premier League’s actions” would “have an influence on the bilateral state relationship”, according to Bloomberg. Elsewhere, the Telegraph said the UAE is threatening to withdraw a multi-billion pound investment into a Silicon Valley-style Oxbridge tech hub. The Premier League brought 115 charges against Man City for breaches of financial rules between 2009 and 2018. Of those charges, 114 were upheld by an independent commission in September, which described City’s activities as a “sham” multiple times, adding that their witnesses used at the hearing were “dishonest.” The Telegraph also reports that Man City chair Khaldoon Al Mubarak met Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, in Downing Street two weeks before the Premier League announced its decision. On Thursday, Downing Street said the guilty verdict against City was “serious”, after Andy Burnham was accused of making a “frankly extraordinary” intervention in support of the football club’s owners. A No 10 spokesperson issued the statement after the prime minister said he would be “really concerned” to see the current owners sell up. Conservative shadow sport minister Louie French had accused the prime minister of “publicly backing the owners” amid an investigation into the club’s funding over recent years, describing his comments as “frankly extraordinary”. Asked by the BBC earlier this week if he was worried about the current owners selling the club, Mr Burnham said: “I would be really concerned to lose them. “They’ve been such a huge partner in the building of modern Manchester, obviously, the building of Manchester City into the global force that it is.” Asked also if his dealings with the club would stand up to scrutiny, he said: “I do actually thank the City Football Group and the wider ownership for the money that they didn’t just put into the Etihad and the campus around it but also into the city – but yes, of course.” The Premier League said an independent commission found City arranged “sham” commercial deals with a number of its sponsors during the period, which were part of a disguised funding scheme, whereby those companies were required to pay only a portion of the relevant sponsorship fees. The commission found that the remainder was funded by Abu Dhabi United Group Investment + Development Ltd (ADUG), which owned the club. City lodged an appeal along with a short statement, saying the commission’s ruling contained “clear material errors of law, principle and fact, and is unsafe”. Insisting on its innocence, the club reiterated it had filed “a comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence [that] exists in support of all of its positions” on Thursday evening.

The Reserve Bank says households are well placed to weather the twin storm of rising interest rates and plunging property prices, but warned that Australia would not be immune to a sudden collapse of the global AI investment boom. The central bank’s latest financial stability review – a biannual assessment of the financial system – said the “threats to global financial stability continue to mount”. The warning comes as Reserve Bank estimated that fewer than one in 100 borrowers owe more on their home than it’s worth, despite this year’s broadening price falls. “While some households continue to experience hardship, the estimated share of mortgagors in severe financial stress or in arrears has, so far, remained low, supported by the strong labour market and mortgagors’ savings and equity buffers,” the report said. The RBA’s estimate that fewer than 1% of borrowers were in “negative equity” came with the caveat: recent buyers who took out loans worth close to the value of the property were more likely to now be in the position where the mortgage was higher than their home’s market value. This included those who took advantage of the government’s 5% home guarantee scheme, the RBA said, although evidence suggested that the share of these borrowers falling behind on their payments remained “contained”. The RBA estimated that even a 20% property price crash would only push about 5% of mortgages into negative equity – a testament to the fact most homeowners have enjoyed significant value gains over the years. “Negative equity is insufficient to trigger default if borrowers remain able to service their loans, which remains the case for the vast majority of these households,” the report said. The RBA said that a loss of faith in the artificial intelligence boom could trigger “disorderly asset price corrections” and that “Australia is unlikely to be immune” from the impact. skip past newsletter promotion Free newsletter | When needed Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks Enter your email Sign up after newsletter promotion 2:30 RBA interest rates: governor Michele Bullock explains decision to lift cash rate to 4.6% – video Alongside the huge sums being invested in artificial intelligence, two ongoing conflicts – in the Middle East and Ukraine – alongside “intensifying strategic competition among major powers” underscored these threats, the RBA said. High valuations in global corporate debt and share markets meant they were vulnerable to a “disorderly” correction. “One possible trigger could be a shift in sentiment towards the AI investment boom, which is increasingly fuelled by expectations of sustained rapid earnings growth and a debt-financing cycle that is becoming more opaque and circular,” the report said. The RBA also warned of the rising risk of cyber-attacks, potentially facilitated by AI, and a sudden sell-off in global bond markets. “These external factors are the most prominent threats to financial stability in Australia.”

Inflation has jumped to 4% in the year to August, from 3.5%, as Jim Chalmers was again forced to defend Labor’s economic management amid fears the Reserve Bank will need to hike interest rates again before Christmas. The increasingly embattled treasurer was accused of “gaslighting” Australians by insisting that government spending was not responsible for high inflation, blaming instead higher fuel costs associated with the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran. “We can see in today’s inflation figures that the overwhelming reason why annual headline inflation has come up in August compared to July is because of the impact of higher global oil prices flowing through to oil prices in Australia,” Chalmers told reporters in Sydney. “That’s not an opinion. It’s a fact.” Fuel prices surged by 15% last month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said, after a worsening Middle East conflict triggered a rebound in global oil prices and the government ended its cut to the fuel excise. Rising transport costs were the prime contributor to price increases in the month, the ABS confirmed. But a 5.4% increase in home building costs over the 12 months to August was one of the prime drivers of high annual inflation “as builders passed on higher costs for materials and labour”, the ABS said. Electricity bills were also higher than this time last year when households were still receiving government rebates. The rise in headline inflation was slightly less than economists had anticipated, while underlying inflation – which removes the most volatile prices swing – was steady at 3.6% in the year to August. Both were still well above the RBA’s 2.5% target. Cherelle Murphy, EY’s chief economist, said “another rate hike looks likely by the end of the year”. A day after the RBA lifted its cash rate to 4.6% – the fourth increase in 2026 – Murphy said “they [the RBA] have an ongoing fight on their hands”. “This is not the end of it.” Chalmers on Wednesday afternoon denied that he was at odds with Michele Bullock, the central bank governor, who at her press conference the previous day said “inflation is too high and has been driven by domestic capacity pressures”. skip past newsletter promotion Free newsletter | When needed Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks Enter your email Sign up after newsletter promotion But Bullock also pointed to the worsening Middle East conflict and the sudden boom in AI-related spending on datacentres. “These developments suggest that inflationary pressures will persist for longer than previously expected,” she said. Murphy said it was a fact that spending by governments, at the commonwealth and state levels, was high, and that this was adding to demand in the economy. She said this meant the government should be extremely careful with any new spending – including additional cost of living relief – for fear of making the RBA’s job harder. But she said it was impossible to quantify exactly to what extent government spending was responsible for persistently high inflation in 2026. “Do I think this is the biggest part of the inflation problem right now? No, the biggest part of the problem is that we have these global supply shocks. “What we are witnessing is the accumulation of a number of events happening together, and none of them are good for inflation.”

The international aid charity Save the Children has been issued with an official regulatory warning over management failures and misconduct that put staff at its Yemen office at serious risk. The warning concluded a two-year investigation by the Charity Commission for England and Wales into the running of the office after the death of its safety and security director, Hisham al-Hakimi, in October 2023 after he was detained by the Yemeni authorities. The commission said weak governance meant staff at the Yemen office were not properly safeguarded in response to what it called a “live security concern”, and incidents of poor conduct by staff were not addressed. The warning letter refers to “substantial policy breaches and a lack of accountability” at the office, and said local charity bosses failed to adequately assess and escalate complaints and reports made by whistleblowers. An internal Save the Children investigation in 2024 after the death of Al-Hakimi found a “negative working culture” in the Yemen office had left staff “disillusioned and marginalised”. It apologised to staff after admitting it had let them down by failing to properly appreciate the risks facing them amid the deteriorating security situation in the country. In a statement to the Guardian, Save the Children International said that since 2024 it had made significant changes under new leadership in Yemen to strengthen oversight, improve support for staff and rebuild trust. The charity has closed its north Yemen office because of security concerns. It said despite its best efforts to understand the circumstances around Al-Hakimi’s detention and his death the challenges in Yemen meant it may never know what happened and why. Another Save the Children member of staff is understood to currently be in detention. The commission’s warning comes amid a growing humanitarian crisis in Yemen, where the charity has been providing emergency medical help, shelter and drinking water to displaced families. Official warnings are relatively rare, and are issued when the commission decides breaches of trust or mismanagement in a charity put its staff or beneficiaries at risk. They can be issued where charity trustees are deemed to have acted recklessly or without proper care. The commission ordered Save the Children International to ensure sufficient resources are in place to safeguard and protect staff and other individuals working with the charity. Stephen Roake, assistant director for high-risk compliance at the commission, said: “It can be incredibly difficult for charities operating in high-risk, volatile environments and we know that circumstances can change rapidly. However, it is for this very reason that trustees must ensure they have sufficient oversight of their overseas operations.” In a statement, Save the Children International said it had accepted the commission’s findings of serious shortcomings in governance, management, oversight and compliance with policies and procedures in the Yemen office at the time. Since 2024, it had installed new leadership in Yemen to strengthen oversight, improve staff support and rebuild trust. It had also introduced detention risk assessments, taken steps to improve incident management procedures, and strengthened crisis management. It said: “We remain committed to learning from this tragedy and ensuring a safe, supportive environment for our colleagues. “We will continue to work closely with the Charity Commission to address any outstanding matters, while continuing to support our colleagues in Yemen and deliver for children in extremely challenging contexts.” Save the Children’s Yemen office warned last week that the country faced a “catastrophic humanitarian situation” as a result of escalating conflict, collapsing health services and outbreaks of disease. More than 1,000 people have been killed or wounded, and tens of thousands displaced by fighting in recent weeks between the Iran-aligned Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has publicly opposed calls for a ban on US diesel exports, arguing on Wednesday that the measure would backfire by increasing gasoline and jet fuel prices. "The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't ‌work," Wright said at an event in New York, as reported by Reuters. Wright said restricting exports would leave refiners with excess diesel inventories, forcing them to cut refinery output. Lower refinery runs, he warned, would tighten supplies of other fuels, ultimately driving up costs for consumers and businesses. His comments put him at odds with President Trump, who signaled support for the idea on Tuesday as diesel prices surge to record highs in the US and Europe (and Treasury Secretary Bessent has been assigned to see "if it's feasible." Trump's comments already sent European prices for the fuel surging. With flows from the region’s top supplier at risk, Bloomberg reports that European diesel’s premium to Brent crude jumped to more than $95 a barrel on Wednesday, a record in Bloomberg data going back to 2011. Known as the crack spread, the indicator has been keenly watched by central bankers as they seek to tame inflation. The equivalent measure in the US, meanwhile, weakened. Trump’s threat comes as Europe is already grappling with the loss of diesel shipments from the Middle East, and Russian export curbs have tightened the global fuel market further. The US has become Europe’s main overseas supplier, with American exports of the workhorse fuel surging to a weekly record near 2 million barrels a day last month. A key US oil industry group cautioned against the move, saying it could lower American fuel production and damage the global economy. Of the 8 million barrels of diesel traded globally by sea each day, the U.S. supplies about 1.5 million of them - about 20%. An export ban would remove the single largest source of global diesel from the market, and the consequences could be catastrophic. “Restricting exports is not a solution to high prices,” the American Petroleum Institute says. “Removing US diesel from the market could instead result in reduced refinery runs, global economic damage and even higher US prices.” Indeed, as Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Ball wrote this morning, while the White House may be able to engineer a brief drop in US diesel prices by limiting exports, it risks creating a bigger supply problem down the road. With distillate stocks at seasonally record lows... ...the appeal is obvious with US diesel above $6.50 a gallon... But a broad curb could strand as much as 1.5 million barrels a day, roughly 29% of US diesel output. If enacted, Ball writes, the effects would be uneven across the US. A surplus would build on the Gulf Coast, while pipeline, shipping and fuel-specification constraints limit how easily those barrels can reach tighter East and West Coast markets. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates Gulf Coast storage could only absorb about three weeks of net diesel exports before constraints bite. The global impact would be worse. Kpler argues there is no real replacement for US export volumes, leaving Latin America and Northwest Europe particularly exposed and increasing competition for Indian barrels. China could compound the squeeze as domestic inventories fall and the risk of renewed export curbs rises. The response from refiners would create a negative feedback loop. If trapped barrels crush margins, refiners are incentivized to cut runs and undertake maintenance. S&P Global Energy estimates crude runs might need to fall by nearly 2 million barrels a day - more than 10% of the current production level - to clear the surplus. That is the asymmetry: lower US diesel prices first, tighter global product markets follow, and potentially less US fuel supply later. The more aggressive the restriction, the greater the risk that today’s price relief becomes tomorrow’s supply problem. By Zerohedge.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Two sailors are missing and 23 others have been rescued following an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, Oman says. Oman's Maritime Security Centre said the Panama-flagged El Gaia was being towed to an Omani port on Tuesday after a fire broke out in its engine room, adding that the vessel was targeted 1.3 nautical miles (2.4km) north of the Musandam peninsula. On Monday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said the tanker hit naval mines and caught fire while passing through what they described as a restricted and unsafe route. But the US military insisted the Iranian report was false. It said the tanker was struck by an Iranian missile last month and again by a drone over the weekend. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre, meanwhile, said it had received a report of a fire breaking out on board a vessel that was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the early hours of Sunday. Earlier this month, Iran made a similar claim about an incident that killed two Filipino sailors on a Saudi-owned oil supertanker in the crucial waterway. The Revolutionary Guards said the vessel, Sidr, caught fire after hitting a naval mine. But Saudi authorities said it was targeted by Iran and maritime security firms reported that it was hit by projectiles north of Musandam. The International Maritime Organization says at least 22 seafarers have been killed in 79 confirmed incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and the rest of the Middle East since the start of the US and Israel's war with Iran at the end of February. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas shipments usually pass, has effectively been closed due to Iranian missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. The US and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen the strait in June, but it collapsed within weeks after the Iranian attacks on shipping resumed and the US reinstated its blockade. Iran has insisted it will not give up some measure of control over the waterway and has targeted vessels using a southern route through Omani waters that avoids its preferred route through Iranian waters.